Almost time to head back up again. While I was home, I turned 30 lbs of beef into jerky to share with the crew. Previous consumption indicates that is their preferred grub. Also packing up new bow and more arrows. More books to read, some protein bars, and some new office shoes.

Looking forward to getting back to the routine. These three week rotations really keep the work fresh and break up the rat race rut that I used to work here in town. This routine suits me.

I will try and post one more time before I leave.

Well, I am back home again. The 30 lbs of meat turned into 6 gallon bags full of jerky. After the first week back at work, I was down to one full gallon bag left, which I stashed so some of the crew out on rotation would get some. My boss, an avid hunter and outdoorsman, pronounced the jerky as the best home made he'd ever had. Since I made a few variations by mixing different batches with different amendments to the basic recipe, there was something for everyone, but the most favored one was the basic recipe. Go figure.

I was quite swamped with work. I can affirm that, while oil companies aren't going after the expensive stuff or doing any exploration right now, they are full throttle on pulling as much of the cheap oil out of the ground as possible right now. The drilling schedule this year is way behind, despite running all rigs 24/7. We are backlooged in doing hookups and tie-ins, and more work is being considered. At just $40 a barrel, the oil companies can still make money on slope oil, and oil from the Permian basin, which is why things are ramping up here and why unemployment in west Texas is at an all time low. I believe Midland/Odessa has the lowest unemployment rate in the country right now. Profits drive the business, so when the price drops, the cheap stuff becomes an obsession for the CEOs, who must turn a profit no matter what or lose their job. So North Dakota and parts of the Gulf might be stalled for now, but I also see the price is starting to come back up again.

Looks like California and the rest of the wsst coast might be getting a break. Apparently that Cat 5 storm that blew through the south Pacific last month was so strong it change the ocean current and it appears to have initiated an El Nino. Historically El Ninos spawn lots of precipitation along the west coast of North America. This may also mean that next winter will be dramatically different here in Anchorage than this last one. I expect if the current indications hold, we will get lots of snow here. Of course, up on slope there is still plenty of the white stuff blowing around. Monday morning as I was leaving the wind chill had us down around -44 deg F.

So we are moving again. Anchorage rent is just too expensive, even though I can afford it, I had only planned on staying in town here temporarily anyways. I've been here 2 years now, and now that I don't have a daily commute to worry about, it makes no sense to stay here. So we found a place out of town that is more to our liking and far more affordable. We decided to finally buy a place as I don't plan on moving again for a good long while. Ultimately, we looked at about 30 or so places, and finally found a nice ranch style on half an acre that the wife said she would be happy with. I will eventually acquire a more remote and larger piece of land to build on, which will be my getaway destination for doing more manly stuff. I plan on building a decent cabin, putting in a well and septic, and stockpiling about 80 or so tons of coal. It is by far the cheapest source of energy up here, it is some of the cleanest coal on the continent, and it is easy to store for a long time. But that is all out in the future a bit. First, I have to pack up all my "stuff" and get moved out and moved in. Life has taught me to work smart, not hard, so I will be hiring some young apes to do the heavy lifting. I figure it will be cheaper to pay them to break their backs than the medical costs to take care of mine.

Looks like the bear hunt may be a bust this year. With the warmer weather, the bears are getting out early. I will likely be back at work and unable to hunt when the timing would be optimal. I don't want to eat fishy tasting bear, and if you don't get them before they get to the salt marsh and the coastline, then that is what you end up with. So I guess we will see what happens in the next few weeks. Normally it would be mid May when the bear hunting here would get going. Dealing with buying a house and generally not prepared for a hunt right now, I can't do much about it this time off, so I guess it will be moose and salmon that fill my freezer and larder this year.

I am saying good-bye to Direct TV. The wife finally capitulated and agreed we will find a more reasonable alternative to the extravagance. It is easier to pull her teeth than to wean her off her addictions. But I am a patient man, and making her face certain realities will eventually lead her to a reasonable and unavoidable conclusion. For me, it is one more noise maker eliminated. Besides, I have a collection of literally thousands of movies and tv shows, and we will still have the internet, at least until the govt takes that away from us. So she doesn't have to go cold turkey.

By the way, I am so pleased with my Samick Phoenix 2 recurve, I am strongly considering selling my Bear Grizzly and getting another Samick. The Grizzly is a nice bow, but it is not as smooth as the Phoenix. Then again, I may just keep the Griz and buy another Phoenix anyways. This archery thing really bit me bad. What can I say. Instant gratification.

Sounds great!

Ben, I've debated for some time whether or not to respond to your post. You are obviously quite enthused about your new slope job, and I don't wish to rain on anyone's parade. However, a couple of your statements are either misleading, or flat out wrong. I have worked in the Alaska oil patch for 30 years, in both exploration and development, for several companies, and the following comments are based on that experience.

Much of the current flurry of activity is from projects that were planned, financed, and approved well over a year ago, back when oil was >$100/bbl. Big oil companies like BP, COP, and XOM are giant behemoths. They don't turn on a dime, and it takes a good while for them to change course. For many projects already in progress, it would cost more to shut them down than to finish them.

N Slope drilling rigs ALWAYS RUN 24/7! The rig contracts are written so that the oil company pays whether the rig is making hole, or sitting idle. The goal for many years (seldom achieved) has been to have a full year backlog of rotary drilling well plans, and at least 6 months of coil drilling prospects. That gives the drilling managers flexibility to sequence wells in such a way as to optimize rig moves and minimize issues with sim-ops ("simulataneous operations") on a pad. My employer closely tracks and monitors NPT ("non productive time"). They have about a dozen categories of NPT. After every well we do an analysis of what caused NPT and how to shave a few hours off on the next well. Anyone who puts a rig on standby without a very good reason will soon be looking for a new career.

There is always a backlog. A few years ago the big bosses made it a key point in the annual bonus calculation to reduce well POP time ("put on production"). The backlog has been cut but it is still there.

The break even oil price varies from field to field, and project to project within a field. The companies will almost never publicly state that number for competitive reasons. Although a well that is already in the ground and producing may still make an operating profit at $40/bbl, the field as a whole won't make money at that price on a sustained basis. An educated guess would be that the overall break even oil price for most N Slope fields is probably somewhere around $40-$55 per barrel. No oil company invests money just to break even.

Sure had me fooled: Permian Basin sees five less rigs : "So far, industry and employment officials estimate thousands of oilfield jobs eliminated during the downturn, while it was reported Monday that Trican Well Service recently laid off 137 employees based in Odessa."

Alaska oil is by no sense "cheap stuff". The whole reason for the big Alaska oil tax debate last year was that people were getting worried that we were no longer competitive with N Dakota.

I understand that you are very happy in your new N Slope job, and I sincerely hope it continues to go well for you. In my 30 years working in the Alaska oil patch I have been laid off twice, and very narrowly dodged that bullet a couple of other times. It is no fun, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone. But stay clear of anyone who tells you not to worry at $40 oil. They are likely to fail their next random drug screening.

It would seem that my enthusiasm has led me to some incorrect conclusions about what is going on currently at the slope, and elsewhere. I had not considered that the backlogs were such an enduring trend and that the work is actually planned that way. It did seem that work had been significantly delayed the last half of 2014 while TAR work pushed us late on most of our projects. Also our work started to really pick up after the first of the year, mainly with projects that had been shelved for years suddenly being resurrected.

As for the Permian Basin, I did a little looking of my own after reading your response, and found this interesting graph:

Permian Basin drilling trend

As everyone can see, the rig trend has been falling this year, not staying the course. It was easy enough to see that in the short time I had to look to check on what I was told. I got that wrong, or at least the information I was given was dated.

My affirmations are suspect, and any conclusions I asserted are unfounded. I don't know what I am talking about when it comes to slope business or the Oil and Gas industry. I apologize for speaking about things I know very little about.

Thank you AKSAR. Your insight and correction are appreciated. From hereon I will refrain from making any statements about what may be going on up on the slope or elsewhere in O&G, other than personal activities.

Still, a good account! Sounds like you're having a good time. I'd love to work in a job that let me traipse around AK a bit.

Ben, no worries. The N Slope oil patch is a very complicated operation, with lots of moving parts. It takes awhile to get your head around it. I still learn new aspects of the business every day.

Oil is a commodity business, and in the oil industry we are at the mercy of the price of that commodity. Let's hope we all get through this rough patch OK.

Ben

so if you don't mind me asking ...

How is the Arctic Circle these days?

Pete

Well, where I am at it is a bit cold and barren, except for the industrial look of the various facilities that are up there. In the summertime there are waterfowl in all the little ponds around the site, and crows are more plentiful. The mosquitoes are obnoxious. But the air is always cool, even in summer time. That's what I've got from where I am. The Sag River runs near where I work and live up there, but it is a bit weird as there's not much vegetation along the shoreline, not like I am used to seeing in other places. No trees.

Thanks for the understanding on my ignorance. I heard that Conoco is bringing up two more drill rigs to complement what they already have at Kuparuk, but I haven't been able to verify that yet. That would seem to corroborate the notion that they are trying to increase production, but who can say? I'm going to make some hard inquiries when I get back up there next Monday and see if I can learn something more about what is going on.

As with all bureaucracies, they have such wonderful ways of making things complicated. It doesn't seem to get better with time either.