My estimate is this. I think they will probably stop this outbreak at the borders of Ghana and Senegal. Ghane is to the east, and Senegal is to the west. the two countries have more resources and are more organized. they will be serious about stopping it.

the big unknown is how far ebola will penetrate in Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Gambia and the Ivory Coast. If it gets into all those places, then maybe 40,000 dead total. if they stop it at just Sierra Leona and Liberia, then maybe 15,000-20,000 dead. Keep in mind that real casualties are probably at least 2x higher than what is reported.

if they stop this outbreak with 30,000- 40,000 dead in a limited number of W. Africa countries -that is a VERY good outcome for the world. NOT good for West Africa. But good for everyone else.

the danger is that if ebola gets into a country with a much larger population (Ivory Coast and Ghana have a total population combined of 50 million), then the virus could mutate again. and if it does, the lethality might go down, but the transmission rate might go up. that is really NOT good. which is why they are working hard to stop it now.

cheers,
Pete