I think the other problem is how cold it really is and what level of humidity, a lot of poor fire lighting equipment works in good dry weather and then fails when you really need it i.e. when it gets cold or exposed to high levels of humidity.
That is precisely why I favor matches (good quality). They have worked for me in some pretty foul conditions (-40F). When it gets really dicey, you need good tinder, decent fuel, and a spot out of the weather to get a fire going. It also makes sense to carry a liquid fueled stove and cookset. They are dependable in really nasty conditions.
Some years ago, three of us were setting out on a SAR mission, starting at 10 PM with snowshoes - winter, ascending in deep snow, and quite cold. I had packed my stove and cook set. One of my companions asked what we had for fire - I produced my gear. he promptly included yet another similar set in his pack. We were all fine with the redundancy. As it happened, neither was actually used.
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