#269330 - 04/21/14 08:59 PM
Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
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Veteran
Registered: 12/14/09
Posts: 1419
Loc: Nothern Ontario
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Not that an EMP is not on my radar of things to worry about but the below is worthy of a read even though similar has been discussed here in the past. The catastrophic effects of an electromagnetic pulse-caused blackout could be preventable, but experts warn the civilian world is still not ready.
In the first few minutes of an EMP, nearly half a million people would die. That’s the worst-case scenario that author William R. Forstchen estimated in 2011 would be the result of an EMP on the electric grid — whether by an act of God, or a nuclear missile detonating in Earth’s upper atmosphere.
An electromagnetic pulse is a burst of electromagnetic energy strong enough to disable, and even destroy, nearby electronic devices.
The scenario sounds like something in a Hollywood film, but the U.S. military has been preparing its electronic systems for such an event since the Cold War. The protective measures taken to harden facilities against a nuclear attack also help in some cases to protect against EMPs.The civilian world is another story.
_________________________
Earth and sky, woods and fields, lakes and rivers, the mountain and the sea, are excellent schoolmasters, and teach some of us more than we can ever learn from books.
John Lubbock
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#269347 - 04/22/14 03:39 AM
Re: Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
[Re: Teslinhiker]
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Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
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Are we talking a continental magnitude emp hit, regional, or local? I could well see a continental hit causing 500,000 deaths, as there are likely that many on life support in this country at any given time. Depending on the region, I'd say the number would be close to that too. At the local level, there are only one or two cities big enough that an emp could put in peril that many people in that short a time.
If a pulse is strong enough to catastrophically disable airplanes, the half a million number would be a conservative figure.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)
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#269366 - 04/22/14 07:40 PM
Re: Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
[Re: ]
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2851
Loc: La-USA
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They probably have a CAPAC System, modified for aircraft, would be my best guess.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!
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#269374 - 04/23/14 01:33 AM
Re: Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
[Re: MDinana]
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
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Given that planes are routinely hit by lightening, I'm pretty sure an EMP could be shrugged off.  Space Shuttle hit by high altitude lightning, which didn't survive. Aircraft lightning strikes have also caused many aircraft crashes. They aren't as trivial as many think, even for Duraluminium skinned aircraft with excellent Faraday shielding qualities with out FBW. Modern Aircraft like the Dreamliner or the A350 have poor Faraday performances (attenuation ) with 50% construction from carbon composites and poor electrical properties versus light alloys (aluminium) i.e. grounding and metallization problems and Bad electrochemical compatibility which need in particular locations the use of Titanium and light alloys. These aircraft also use unstable aerodynamics and FBW and FADEC (electronic flight and engine controls) These aircraft if subject to nuclear HEMP would probably have failing FBW systems, would then suffer catastrophic structural failure due to excessive G as the natural aircraft tendency for increased angle of attack at high velocities greater than Mach 0.7 at altitude. Civilian aircraft are also subject to danger even from high powered ground or sea based radio transmitters such as directed microwave energy weapons such as AESA Radars used in EW (electronic war fare)
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#269385 - 04/23/14 07:40 AM
Re: Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
[Re: Teslinhiker]
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Member
Registered: 05/15/07
Posts: 198
Loc: Scotland
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Some thoughts.
Possibility of nEMP.
1. A nuclear weapon is required. There are not too many around in the megatonne range required for nEMP.
2. A specific weapon, high altitude burst, is required. Very, very few around, if any at all. Only ever tested by the US and USSR, 1958-1962.
3. A launch platform has to be used that reaches very high in the atmosphere. Very few people have the ability to do this.
4. Some sort of aggression is required. e.g. I really can't see the US attacking the UK or vice versa.
5. Should you have all the above, a fair number of weapons (perhaps 10-15) are required to cover the US with confidence (1/2 to 2/3 of missile based weapons are expected to fail, either delivery or completion.
Putting all that together as a package reveals that those with the availability and inclination currently number zero.
Outcome of nEMP:
1. Whilst Nemp certainly exists its effects are debatable. From the twenty one exoatmospheric tests the only damage I can find are some streetlights and a telephone exchange from 'Starfish Prime' and a rumored fire in the power plant in the city of Karaganda from Soviet test 184.
2. Many utilities are well protected these days from surges because of the threat of natural energy pulses.
3. Much theoretically vulnerable equipment will not be exposed to the effects of nEMP as it is indoors, unconnected, physically too small and so on.
4. Even if equipment was lost through nEMP much of it is not vital to life or the continuance of society or culture. We will easily carry on without television for example.
Putting all that together as a package reveals that the chance of being affected by an nEMP is vanishingly small.
Classic risk calculation deems that risk = likelihood X severity. In this case zero times vanishingly small.
In the UK ten people die every day on our roads and thousands are seriously injured.
My thesis is that the effort, time and cost one puts into preparing for the outcome of an nEMP would much better be put into, say, a yearly safe driving course or a more effective anti-sun cream to avoid skin cancer.
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#269388 - 04/23/14 01:55 PM
Re: Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
[Re: Teslinhiker]
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Member
Registered: 05/15/07
Posts: 198
Loc: Scotland
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I was thinking about deliberate nEMP (Nuclear Elecro Mgnetic Pulse) as I mentioned in the second line. I suspect you are referring to a series of failures caused by a massive natural solar storm which eventually has been called 'The Carrington Event' after the man who recorded the details. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859This event is often held up as the indicator of what could happen. Indeed the article mentioned in Teslinkiker's post refers to another report by Lloyds that talks about $0.6-2.6 trillion USD damage world wide from such another event. What most commentators forget is that the people responsible for the utilities that could be affected are very clever people and are acutely aware of the possible problems from natural Electro-Magnetic events and have built resiliency into their systems. It is not August 1859 any longer. No utility owner will want egg on their face and be unable to supply their services for more than a few hours and thus they take all reasonable precautions to prevent it happening. The favorite mentioned is to shut down the grid during the storm peak for a few hours, there is plenty of warning for this to happen. Whilst I am sure that we will see some (many) problems from a repeat 'Carrington Event' I am confident that it will not be the doom and destruction many like to predict.
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#269391 - 04/23/14 05:37 PM
Re: Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
[Re: Ian]
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Old Hand
Registered: 08/10/06
Posts: 882
Loc: Colorado
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Whilst I am sure that we will see some (many) problems from a repeat 'Carrington Event' I am confident that it will not be the doom and destruction many like to predict. I dunno -- the chaos that ensues when just a few traffic lights are without electricity is quite startling. Scale that up and things would be ugly. (BTW- EMP walk home the 40 miles from work scenario is my planning basis.)
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#269399 - 04/24/14 04:05 AM
Re: Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
[Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
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Veteran
Registered: 12/14/09
Posts: 1419
Loc: Nothern Ontario
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Space Shuttle hit by high altitude lightning, which didn't survive.
Conspiracies run amuck or a joke post? The link ( www.thelivingmoon.com) for the above image should not instill any confidence for anyone to believe that Columbia disintegrated due to a supposed lightening strike. Columbia disintegrated on re-entry due to foam insulation that broke off and hit the left wing on takeoff. This is lot more believable IMHO.
_________________________
Earth and sky, woods and fields, lakes and rivers, the mountain and the sea, are excellent schoolmasters, and teach some of us more than we can ever learn from books.
John Lubbock
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#270102 - 05/24/14 03:53 AM
Re: Civilians not ready for EMP-caused blackout
[Re: Ian]
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Addict
Registered: 03/20/05
Posts: 410
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Some thoughts.
Possibility of nEMP.
1. A nuclear weapon is required. There are not too many around in the megatonne range required for nEMP.
2. A specific weapon, high altitude burst, is required. Very, very few around, if any at all. Only ever tested by the US and USSR, 1958-1962.
3. A launch platform has to be used that reaches very high in the atmosphere. Very few people have the ability to do this.
4. Some sort of aggression is required. e.g. I really can't see the US attacking the UK or vice versa.
5. Should you have all the above, a fair number of weapons (perhaps 10-15) are required to cover the US with confidence (1/2 to 2/3 of missile based weapons are expected to fail, either delivery or completion.
Putting all that together as a package reveals that those with the availability and inclination currently number zero.
Outcome of nEMP:
1. Whilst Nemp certainly exists its effects are debatable. From the twenty one exoatmospheric tests the only damage I can find are some streetlights and a telephone exchange from 'Starfish Prime' and a rumored fire in the power plant in the city of Karaganda from Soviet test 184.
2. Many utilities are well protected these days from surges because of the threat of natural energy pulses.
3. Much theoretically vulnerable equipment will not be exposed to the effects of nEMP as it is indoors, unconnected, physically too small and so on.
4. Even if equipment was lost through nEMP much of it is not vital to life or the continuance of society or culture. We will easily carry on without television for example.
Putting all that together as a package reveals that the chance of being affected by an nEMP is vanishingly small.
Classic risk calculation deems that risk = likelihood X severity. In this case zero times vanishingly small.
In the UK ten people die every day on our roads and thousands are seriously injured.
My thesis is that the effort, time and cost one puts into preparing for the outcome of an nEMP would much better be put into, say, a yearly safe driving course or a more effective anti-sun cream to avoid skin cancer. I agree that the UK and US probably won't be trading shots at each other. That's about all I can agree with here. Several countries, unfortunately, can deliver a nuclear device high enough to cause problems. It doesn't take dozens of weapons, one high up can and will hurt the country very badly. EMP has 3 components to it, and the first (E1) is also the fastest and most damaging. It has been simulated and tested on cars and other modern day conveniences, and it is a serious threat. The E3 component is similar to that caused by CME's from the sun. Utility companies are very unprepared for this, a quick google search can bring many recent studies showing this. We are very unprepared in the US, maybe in the UK things are different. Current estimates range from 18 months to several years to get power generation back in the US. The Soviet tests in Kazakhstan took them completely by surprise, the damage was much, much worse than expected. If you can't find reports of serious damage, then you haven't looked very hard at all. I suggest you try google. The E1 component can and will take out a lot of very important things in life. It's not living without television, it's living without electricity. No medicine, refrigeration, fuel, heat. The list goes on and on. Our society relies on electricity for all of these things. Either EMP or CME will have catastrophic effects unless we get our power grid protected, and we are a long way from that.
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