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#265937 - 12/20/13 12:35 AM California 1857-1862
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
How would California cope today if the same events between 1857-1862 occur in a similar 4-5 year time frame?

1857 - Earthquake
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1857_Fort_Tejon_earthquake

1859 - Solar Storm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

1861 - 1862 ARkStorm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm

ARkStorm The great Flood
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862






Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (12/20/13 12:38 AM)

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#265938 - 12/20/13 12:59 AM Re: California 1857-1862 [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Well, at least the ARk storm scenario would be a change from the current challenge, which is a fairly serious drought.

"Malibu" is said to be the local Native American term for "Don't build here."


Edited by hikermor (12/20/13 01:16 AM)
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#265940 - 12/20/13 01:23 AM Re: California 1857-1862 [Re: hikermor]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
We can add the Heatwave and Sandstorm 'Great Simoon' of 1859 into the scenario in as well, just around the same time as the Solar Storm Carrington event as well. wink

http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/events/department-news/771/goleta-s-great-simoon-of-1859/


A story recounting the 1859 Santa Barbara Heatwave - Lets assume no Grid Power today because of the Carrington event Solar Storm. eek

http://geotripper.blogspot.co.uk/2010/09/third-hottest-place-in-world-youre-not.html


Quote:
"As the sun slipped above the hills east of town on the morning of June 17, 1859, it revealed another near-perfect California day in Santa Barbara. From a cloudless, brilliant blue sky, the brassy ball of fire overhead beat down upon the tile-roofed adobes and dusty roads, quickly raising the temperature. As mid-morning passed, so did the 80-degree mark. It was nothing out of the ordinary, but that would soon change. By day's end, the small town of several thousand people would suffer through what was, at the time, the hottest temperature ever recorded on earth.

As morning passed into early afternoon the heat continued. Then, from out of nowhere, a blast of superheated air blew over the Santa Ynez Mountains like a blowtorch. The sky was soon darkened by a massive dust cloud, kicked up by the blistering wind. Not long after, the heat "began taking a terrible toll on the beasts in the field," wrote the late Santa Barbara historian Walker A. Tompkins, "leaving the buzzards a feast of calves, rabbits, field mice and even full grown cattle who perished under the oak trees where they had sought respite from the punishing heat."

By 2 p.m., the temperature had rocketed to an unbelievable 133 degrees! People fled to the Old Mission and Our Lady of Sorrows church in sheer terror, thinking the world was coming to an end. Others took to their adobes, desperately seeking refuge behind the earthen insulation of mud walls.

"No human being could withstand such heat out of doors," says a government report later issued in 1869 by U.S. Coast Survey engineers. The survey crew happened to be on a vessel at sea in the Channel at the time, and were it not for them, an official record would not exist.

Fruit shriveled and fell from trees. An entire grape crop was baked in the Goleta Valley. Birds fell out of the sky in mid-flight, their carcasses scattered over the land. Others were found drowned in the bottoms of wells where they had tried to escape the heat.

Then, just as mysteriously as the wind emerged, it died. The temperature fell slightly to 122 degrees by around 5 p.m. and finally down to 77 degrees as the sun set.

Santa Barbara's world record remained for 55 years (sic) until it was beat by a single degree in Death Valley. Nine years after that, in 1922, a heat wave of 136 degrees hit Libya, which remains the hottest temperature yet documented.

To this day, the simoom that seared Santa Barbara in 1859 with 133-degree heat remains the third hottest temperature ever recorded on earth. There exists no comparable event in meteorological history or known Native American folklore. "



Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (12/20/13 01:38 AM)

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#265943 - 12/20/13 02:58 AM Re: California 1857-1862 [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
It is not surprising that the Santa Barbara Chamber of Commerce does not widely publicize this event. In the event of a recurrence, I, for one, would beat feet to the beach - 0.9 of a mile and 200 feet downhill all the way from my residence - and jump into the water. Water temps in the Santa Barbara Channel peak at about 60 degrees in the fall and range downward from that during the rest of the year.

I appreciated reading your reference from the UCSB Geography Department casting some very reasonable doubt of the severity of this event.
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#265959 - 12/20/13 02:57 PM Re: California 1857-1862 [Re: hikermor]
MDinana Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/08/07
Posts: 2208
Loc: Beer&Cheese country
Originally Posted By: hikermor
It is not surprising that the Santa Barbara Chamber of Commerce does not widely publicize this event. In the event of a recurrence, I, for one, would beat feet to the beach - 0.9 of a mile and 200 feet downhill all the way from my residence - and jump into the water. Water temps in the Santa Barbara Channel peak at about 60 degrees in the fall and range downward from that during the rest of the year.

I appreciated reading your reference from the UCSB Geography Department casting some very reasonable doubt of the severity of this event.

You and every person within the blast radius of the event. At least you could avoid the parking nightmare.

133, huh? Doable, but I'd really like to acclimate to that first!! A 50 degree spike in temp would be a heck of an event.

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#265960 - 12/20/13 03:07 PM Re: California 1857-1862 [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1372
""Malibu" is said to be the local Native American term for "Don't build here."

Honestly, we've got so many places in California that are like that now. It's really, really criminal. I can think of countless residential areas that are built almost on top of the San Andreas fault line. Literally almost directly on top of it. Likewise, I can think of apartment complexes built immediately beside major dry washes. Those dry washes are huge - meaning that when 100-year rains come, that area is a swollen river of raging water. But since the flood only comes every hundred years, people just forget about it.

I suppose that is one of the big problems about "Mother Nature's Fury". She doesn't show that fury very often - so we tend to forget about it. But heaven help us when it actually materializes.

Pete2

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#265964 - 12/20/13 06:46 PM Re: California 1857-1862 [Re: Pete]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Kind of a minor point, but significant - "100 year flood", as I understand it, doesn't mean that you have a predictable interval between events. It does mean for floods that every year you have a one in one hundred chance of having a flood of that magnitude, so each year you roll the dice fresh....

Since long term forecasts are getting to be fairly useful, there are years, like the present, when you can relax. But we will always have wildfires.

Perhaps someday we will have a useful way of predicting earthquakes - I heard on the news that there was a 2.6 or so in Santa Monica yesterday.
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#265975 - 12/21/13 03:08 AM Re: California 1857-1862 [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
Mark_R Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 05/29/10
Posts: 863
Loc: Southern California
100 year, or 25 or 50 year criteria are probabilites. It's the expected, or the worst expected, events within the next 25, 50, or 100 years. They're based on historical data, but have no real day to day meaning. The next 100 year event could be in 200 years or tomorrow.
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