Playing devil's advocate here, but how do you decide which tinder to use at any given time?

I keep it simple and usually just have a bic lighter and a firesteel, along with some cotton PJ cotton balls. I start looking out for natural tinder as soon as I think I might need it. The cotton balls are backup in case natural materials are not readily available and/or if the lighter fails and need something to catch a spark from the firesteel easily.