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#250327 - 08/27/12 06:01 PM M.U.S.H-y thinking
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
Mathematically Unlikely Scenarios Here. MUSH

Planning is good -- realistic planning is better.

If your bug out plan is walking 400 miles to grandpa's farm:

25 mi/day = 16 days = 32 MRE's. Roughly 32 pounds of food.

this assumes flat ground, good weather, no opposition/gridlock and being in shape and 2-3 mph. Near perfect conditions. ( Numbers are all estimates, use your own research)

Great

But what if--

you have a puppy and a small human with you you?

15 mi/day = 27 days =81 MRE's. 81# +/- of food in your pack

That's nearly 50% of your body weight in just food.

As always, do the math. Don't be MUSH-y.

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#250347 - 08/28/12 12:06 AM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: TeacherRO]
roberttheiii Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 02/13/09
Posts: 395
Loc: Connecticut, USA
Good point. I also thinking assuming you can make good time in a situation that has forced you to bug out is pretty optimistic. I'd say bug out closer or have multiple locations, one far away if you have a car, one close if you don't have a car.

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#250350 - 08/28/12 12:49 AM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: TeacherRO]
Leo Offline
Stranger

Registered: 12/27/09
Posts: 24
Loc: Colorado
Traveling 400 miles on foot with dependents in a grid-down enviroment would be an epic. Probably not realistic for most people. I wouldn't expect to be able to carry enough food. It is probably only do-able if you can gather/scavange/hunt/buy food along the way. Which will add days to the trip.
leo

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#250352 - 08/28/12 01:01 AM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: TeacherRO]
widget Offline
Addict

Registered: 07/06/03
Posts: 550
I see the logic but cannot imagine taking a MRE's for any long journey. Too heavy and too hard to palate on a day-to-day basis.

I would imagine water would be the most difficult item to procure on a 400 mile, foot journey. Maybe in the Pacific NW or comparable area. In most areas it would be tough.
_________________________
No, I am not Bear Grylls, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night and Bear was there too!

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#250356 - 08/28/12 05:45 AM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: TeacherRO]
Denis Offline
Addict

Registered: 01/09/09
Posts: 631
Loc: Calgary, AB
I think there is another issue with a 400 mile foot journey as a backup plan beyond the logistics of the trip itself (which, alone make it a non-starter for me). The bigger issue for me is that I can't envision a disaster that would make such a journey necessary.

For example, if my entire city were effectively laid waste and made inhabitable by some sort of natural disaster my closest family would be close to 400 miles away ... it is really the only place I could set down for an extended period of time in such a situation. But that doesn't mean I need a plan in place to walk there. Even in the unlikely event that I couldn't get out of my city with a vehicle, but somehow did get out, there would be help available closer than that - at least short term help (churches, Red Cross, etc).

Even barring finding short-term relief (maybe all the support organizations are all overloaded?) I think I'd be looking for some form of alternate transportation, like bus maybe, or even just a place to hole up so I could arrange for help from those outside of the affected area.

In short, any disaster I can envision is going to be localized and there will be safe places to go closer than my family 400 miles away. And if there isn't, what guarantee would I have that my family hasn't also been impacted and displaced?
_________________________
Victory awaits him who has everything in order — luck, people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck. Roald Amundsen

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#250357 - 08/28/12 06:42 AM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: TeacherRO]
dougwalkabout Offline
Crazy Canuck
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/03/07
Posts: 3238
Loc: Alberta, Canada
Is this a cheap shot at one of our members, who posted a related question a short while ago?

If so, I say it is completely unacceptable. And utterly embarrassing.

mad

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#250358 - 08/28/12 07:49 AM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: TeacherRO]
quick_joey_small Offline
Addict

Registered: 01/13/09
Posts: 574
Loc: UK

I don't think it's possible even if you are alone.

from wikipedia
Each meal provides about 1,200 Calories ....
Each MRE weighs 18 to 26 oz.

BUT a man needs 2,500 calories a day if he's not doing any walking while carrying a load. So you best be talking 3 MREs a day, which then adds to the load and makes the calorie content higher again. And how are you going to carry only food? No sleeping bag, shelter, stove, fuel etc?
MREs contain water so are a bad choice anyway.
If you are serious about needing a bug out plan simply have food cached in the direction you will bug out. Or all directions if you don't know. Food is cheap and you haven't lost that money anyway. You have the food.

Sorry for providing no exact numbers but for some reason I can't find a simple 'what calories are you burning with x amount of load' formula on the net.

'this assumes flat ground, good weather, no opposition/gridlock and being in shape and 2-3 mph. Near perfect conditions'
is the reasoning of someone who is likeliest to die. This is equipped for survive not 'equipped for everything always going right'.
qjs

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#250363 - 08/28/12 03:08 PM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: quick_joey_small]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
Quote:
from wikipedia
Each meal provides about 1,200 Calories ....
Each MRE weighs 18 to 26 oz.


There is a lot of confusion regarding MREs in many of the Prepper BOB youtube videos. Many think that a single MRE per day per person is sufficient. There are even some who think even 2 MREs will be sufficient for two people for 3 days when bugging out. These folks are suffering from MUSH thinking.

25 miles per day Tabing is exceptionally good going whilst carrying more than 30-40lbs pack loads. Calorie requirements could be as high as 5000-6000 Calories per day i.e. 4-5 MREs i.e. 7-8 lbs. A British 24hr ORP weighs around 1.7kg 3.75 lbs and has around 4000-4500 Kcal.

To improve range a Bicycle with panniers and or trailer will help considerably. Mark Beaumont would typically cover 100+ miles per day carrying 60lb loads during his record breaking cycle around the world attempt. Again 5000-6000 calories was required. There is also a limit to the amount of edible calories that can be consumed by the body. Typically 6000-7000 calories. This is why Tour de France riders will lose weight in Mountain stages no matter how much they ate.

Making your own Ration packs can be more efficient (Energy Density) for conditions where water is readily available.

Ainsley Harriot Wild Mushroom Risotto 120gms 566Kcal
Salmon Fillet in Mustard and Dill Sauce 190gms 350Kcal
Knorr Thick Vegetable Soup 75gms 260Kcal
PhD Flapjack 75gms 286Kcal
PhD Flapjack 75gms 286Kcal
SIS Go Energy Bar 65gms 217Kcal
Fin Carre Dark Chocolate 100gms 524Kcal
Paterson Shortbread Fingers 180gms 900Kcal
Travel Lunch Mousse au Chocolate 100gms 411Kcal
Expedition Foods Beef Curry with Rice 162gms 915Kcal

Total Weight is around 2.5 lbs and has 4700 Kcal. This would be twice the energy density compared to an MRE.

The ability to travel 400 miles using a bicycle (assuming 80 miles per day - 6-8 Hrs pedaling a day) could be achieved with 5 of the above ration packs i.e. around 6kg or 13.5 lbs of food. Having the ability to carry 25+ lbs of gear is quite doable using a bicycle and trailer. The BOB Ibex trailer is rated for 70lbs. Walking/marching/tabbing self contained with MREs probably wouldn't get you more than 120 miles before running out of food.




Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (08/28/12 04:28 PM)

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#250366 - 08/28/12 04:42 PM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: TeacherRO]
Fred78 Offline
Stranger

Registered: 10/11/11
Posts: 20
Loc: US
Most folks in the US are carrying around lots of spare calories on their person everyday due to being overweight, even just 10 lbs over gives you 35,000 calories you can burn. And a lot of people, myself included, have access to a bit more than that.

So I'll put forth the idea that water is the most important part of this equation, not how many mre's or whatever else food wise you think you'll need for a journey of this type.

In a scenario where you'll need to walk 400 miles, obviously things have deteriorated way beyond any semblence of normal life. In my opinion people will have to adjust to the idea that surving this isn't going to be comfortable with 3 meals a day, but just surviving to live another day to continue walking is all that's to be expected.

And I have my personal opinions about the ability of people to walk 400 miles, or ride a bike for 80 mi/day....and for the general populous it's not favorable.

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#250368 - 08/28/12 05:03 PM Re: M.U.S.H-y thinking [Re: Denis]
spuds Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 06/24/12
Posts: 822
Loc: SoCal Mtns
Originally Posted By: Denis
there would be help available closer than that - at least short term help (churches, Red Cross, etc).

Even barring finding short-term relief (maybe all the support organizations are all overloaded?) I think I'd be looking for some form of alternate transportation, like bus maybe, or even just a place to hole up so I could arrange for help from those outside of the affected area.

We were forced out by the fires once....and fortunately had been traveling in a motorhome at the time and lived quite comfortably in a campground,that was very lucky.

Now the point of post....the FIRST responders to help folks were church groups and boy Scouts.They were first ON THE SCENE and beat Red Cross by 2 weeks easily,they didnt show until restrictions were lifted. They are a big organization and move at glacial speed.

The churches,Boy Scouts got EVERYTHING essential out there ASAP on the spot,from INSTANT donations from folks in the area.

In the campground a need for gloves...on to the radio it went,in an hour somebody would show with donated gloves and skullcaps......need produce,BAMM,a restaurant owner would show in an hour with boxes of produce.The kids and a troop leader or church had toy haulers set up with hot meals.

This went on for 2 weeks.The gooberment,NEVER saw em,the major aide organizations werent there. The same gov that tells you 3 days food and water will suffice.....ummm....NO!

The Red Cross.....they showed in my neighborhood area 2 DAYS AFTER we were allowed home.First sight we had of them entire time.

In time of immediate response,Red Cross just cant do it,but your locals will if its possible at all.

Churches and Boy Scouts,thats a mighty impressive response team for sure!

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