Jarvis,

You are very wise to plan ahead. The biggest problem most people have in an emergency is not having thought about it ahead of time. Good on you.

Having spent some time in the area you are going, as well as having spent a lot of time in a 182, I will have to agree with others that it will depend on the situation at the time. Lots of responders have talked about the water landing (and Doug gave you an excellent link here) so that is covered. Just don't try to read too much into the water landing fatality data. Sea planes (almost all of them on floats) have much higher stresses because of the long struts and are more prone to structural damage than the land version of the same aircraft.

In defense of the tree landing (and again it will be a decision made on the spot) it can be made without as much risk as some have suggested. Although I have not had to make one, I am quite familiar with a number of them. Please note these are intentional landings in the tree tops, not crashes in the trees. I have been at the sight of 3 of them and several where the aircraft was stalled and spun into the trees. The later were universally bad. In the other three (and two more where I know the pilot personally -my dad) there were only 2 serious injuries out of 22 souls on board. (One was a B17, at night. Everyone was uninjured.) The key is to do a soft field landing in the tops of the trees. The aircraft will usually (in a pine forest) come to rest at or near the ground.

Each type has it's own risks, and you must evaluate (quickly) the problems in the place you need to land. Just don't give up on the tree tops and land in the middle of a class V rapid!

Off airport - unknown surface (particularly in that part of the NWT) is often tundra or marsh with lots of pot holes. Almost certain flip and a more rigid surface to bounce on. Moderate possibility of injury.

Water - smooth lake or river - Probable loss of equipment in aircraft and a COLD time with no extra clothing to replace your wet stuff. (Why do you think the Coasties fly so often in dry suits?) High likelyhood of little or no injury.


Tree tops - Certain damage to aircraft but all equipment and the materials available after everything stops. No soaking. Moderate probability of injuries.


Respectfully,

Jerry

p.s. Twins have almost exactly twice the number of engine failures as singles.