The problem I have with treetops is that the plane won't stay there. Even if you do everything perfectly, once you touch that first treetop you are no longer in control of where or how fast you stop. The idea that you can dodge a tree trunk once you are low, slow and at much reduced option for choosing what you will impact is IMO very optimistic. You have no control of branches coming through the front windshield before you get close to the ground. There are far too many unknowns.

Landing on a lake the number of unknowns are limited. You know you'll get wet and cold, things you can plan to deal with. If you have the skill to dodge a tree, you should be able to put the aircraft close enough to the beach that it will be a resource after you escape wet but intact. Being intact is a very good start to being rescued. That and a PLB so the search effort is very short should make the being wet part not so bad. Good luck.