It's a tough call. High-wing fixed gear aircraft can turn turtle in the water, and although I'm confident my wife and I could exit, I have concerns about collecting and bringing a 20lb bag of emergency gear on the way (other than what I have on my person).

On the other hand, the received wisdom about landing in dense tree tops is that it's a relatively soft landing. Tree canopies are soft and multiple impacts slow you much more gently than would flying the cabin directly into the solid trunk of a tree. Stall speed (and therefore forward speed at impact) is about 55mph. With even a light 10mph headwind, that's reduced to 45mph over the ground. There is also a lot of aircraft structure to absorb energy. Ideally the descent to ground level is broken up by a lot of branches and foliage.

If there is flat ground in range then of course that's my first choice. But I'm interested in thoughts on the survival aspects of being cold, wet and without gear, vs being dry and having the gear but perhaps being somewhat banged up and potentially stuck up a tree.

Are there any SAR rules of thumb like "make sure you're uninjured regardless of what you have to leave behind"? Or "it's worth the risk of a broken arm to secure clean water, shelter, fire"? Maybe somebody here knows!