Anyone living on the Oregon coast ought to be making plans to camp out long-term at home, in a tent or a vehicle. Evacuation by any means to the I-5 corridor, let alone central Oregon, would be extremely daunting if not impossible.

I can't see evacuating to central Oregon from Portland, either (162 miles from Portland to Bend). Up and over Mt. Hood on Hwy 26 after a huge earthquake? No way.

I'm from Hood River Valley (60 miles east of Portland, it stretches from Mt. Hood to the Columbia River). In the mega-quake scenario that would cause anyone in Portland or the coast to consider going east of the Cascades, they may well find I-84 impassable. The rock-fall from the cliffs in the Columbia Gorge surely would be considerable. Bridges would be vulnerable. The smaller mountain pass roads? Doubtful.

It is 200-250 miles from the coastal towns to central Oregon. 80-100 miles from the bigger northern coast towns (Astoria, Seaside, Cannon Beach) to Portland.

Long before any evacuees got near the Cascade mountains, they'd have to contend with the coastal mountain range which is in between those coastal towns and the I-5 corridor. Collapsed bridges would not just block vehicles but would make egress by foot or bicycle far more difficult, too.

I graduated from Oregon State University and made countless drives to Newport - the nearest coastal town. Cannon Beach is my favorite Oregon coast town and I often go when visiting Oregon. Since becoming aware of the CSZ I have given a lot of thought to the worst-case scenario and it is very grim for tourists caught up in such a disaster. Full-time residents would at least have the benefit of their pantries (well stocked, if they're wise).

I'm among those who've long advocated the merits of mountain bikes and bike trailers in such dire scenarios. On the Oregon coast, an off-road motorcycle could make a lot of sense, too, if only to commute to the Red Cross shelters that would eventually be established.

May God help residents and tourists on the Washington-Oregon-California coasts if the worst-case CSZ scenarios occur. It will be awhile before any other help could get to those communities.

my coos bay buddy again adds his two cents:

Interesting thread. The other posters have nailed the problems with evacuation. Relief supplies by Navy or merchant marine is a nice idea, but ports have to be operational to unload ships. The ports of Portland and Seattle/Tacoma will be wrecked in the same way all other infrastructure will be. Relief supply will be slow as fuels and heavy equipment for clearing debris and getting infrastructure back online will be slow to recover. Recovery will be slow. Re-establishing transportation and utilities will be slow. Meanwhile, there will be 1-5% of the population killed in the earthquake/tsunami. 10-20% injuries. another 5% will die form injuries or disease.

There will be tough, challenging weeks for the survivors. Organizing ourselves, improvising water, food, shelter, medical care, and sanitation will be daunting tasks for people used to flipping switches and turning on taps. We will need the leadership of survival guys to help organize, prioritize, teach skills, and improvise. We will survive with hand tools, sand water filters, cook fires, and rationing food. There will be much to do, but also many hands to do the work. The more people prepare and build the skills ad knowledge base now, the better it will be when the big rip comes.

Dagney made some very good points.

Although we don't live in Oregon, we live on the northen end of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. This area shares the same type terrain, weather, infrastructure etc as other cities such as Seattle. If and when there is a 7+ earthquake here, I am under no illusion that an evacuation on foot to the east on foot to the interior would be very ill advised.

In this area, in order to travel east, there are only 2 major highways to follow that have bridges that are also vulnerable to an earthquake. If you happen to live on the eastern side of the bridges and were foolish enough to think of evacuating by vehicle, the local roads that were not affected by the quake would be gridlock and impassable.

Traveling east by foot or bicyle would even be more foolish. After a 60 - 90 mile walk through relativley easy valley terrain and assuming you had the proper gear, food water etc to make it this far after days of walking, the Cascade mountain range is now a major obstacle. At this juncture, there are 2 roads heading NE into the interior and assuming that critical bridges and tunnels have not collapsed...which many probably will of, the evac is now inherently dangerous. Here in the coast range mountains, there is often snow and severe weather well into May at higher elevations. In the summer, the daytime temperatures can reach the triple digits. Those who make this far now would have days of walking with no infrasture, no food and only a couple of very small towns and villages that would be quickly overrun with people who where driving when the earthquake hit. Although these small towns may of survived the earthquake which was 200 to 300 miles southwest, these towns would be in short supply of food etc as it has to be trucked in during normal times.

Taking Dagney's points into consideration and the above, if the big quake hits here, the odds of survival after the quake would be much more in our favor by staying put then attempting to evac on foot to a destination that is hundreds of miles away...and fraught with almost overwhelming difficulties in many forms.

My general strategy for a devastating earthquake is to shelter in place; fortunately I live near a coast which gives me a lot of option.

With regard to Oregon and the CSZ, it is instructive to think how that area was reached and supported in early historic times, before the advent of modern transportation networks, all of which will likely be disrupted by the event. Goods came by sea. That would e a reasonable way of getting help to those effected by an event of the magnitude contemplated. But hopefully one would have a good two weeks or more of food available.....

I couldn't remember the name of the place or where I read it for a while, but this (important) article about Algiers Point is another example of what happened after Katrina. Algiers Point is high ground, just across the river from the Lower Ninth Ward, although not directly accessible from there by any bridges.

You had roving bands of armed white residents basically executing any non-whites who ended up in their corner of New Orleans--and they brag about it to the reporter. The veneer of civilization is much thinner in some places than others, it seems.

So, Gretna was not necessarily typical, but it wasn't a lone outlier either when it comes to extreme outsider-vs-insider attitudes.

Anyone who is following this topic would enjoy reading this book published last year after the Japan megaquake-tsunamis. Fascinating and a reminder just how recent is the modern understanding of earthquakes and plate tectonics.

http://www.amazon.com/Cascadias-Fault-Ea...0274&sr=1-1


As I was driving around today I was pondering just what would be in my rucksack next time I visit Cannon Beach and spend hours walking on the sand. I've always stayed in hotels right on the beach and savored walking the nine miles of wide beach - from sunrise to midnight if there's a full moon.

And like many Oregonians, I've enjoyed going to the beach during winter storms as much as rarer warm summer days.

Geologists now say that you may have just 15 minutes from the earthquake to a tsunami hitting the beach. Even in my heyday of youthful fitness, I would be hard-pressed to get to high enough ground to ensure safety from the worst tsunami scenarios. But one thing is for sure: if I'm anywhere on the Pacific Northwest coast and feel any kind of tremor, I'm hustling inland and up as fast as possible. My sister and friends may or may not be with me - the closest to Cannon Beach live in Portland, 80 miles away.

In the 9.0 quake-tsunami scenarios, if I stay in one of my usual hotels, my luggage in the room and my car will be lost. So I'll be stuck with what I'm wearing and carrying. Tourists will likely far outnumber local residents (population: 1600) -- who will have their own problems to contend with.

What I think I'll have in my rucksack there from now on, knowing I won't want to be terribly loaded down when at any given second there is a miniscule chance of a megaquake hitting during my vacation:


Cash (at least $300)
Petzl Zipka headlamp-wristlamp (+ extra batteries)
UCO 12-hour beeswax candle
Pocket radio (+ extra batteries)
Oregon folding map
compass
Bic lighter + REI stormproof matches + firesteel
cotton balls + Vaseline lip balm
Doug's Mk5 and Mk1 knives
Micropur water purification tablets
titanium sierra cup
Kleenex tissue packet
AMK heatsheet
mini-first aid kit
550 paracord (my dog walking neck lanyard has some incorporated)


I can put this all in the bottom of my rucksack without adding great gobs of weight or taking too much volume. Even in summer at Cannon Beach, I'm usually wearing a jacket of some sort. Would be bad news to be stuck with just shorts if a disaster hits that could entail being without shelter overnight on the Oregon coast - brrrrrr.

By the way, Cannon Beach is not a port, so supplying emergency provisions by ship would be a very tedious task.

Helicopters would be in huge demand throughout the affected region.

In a disaster of this magnitude, it might not be unreasonable to plan for an aircraft carrier and logistical support vessels to make an appearance, along with beaucoup helicopters - not right away, necessarily, but within a two week time frame. In truly serious disasters, the military becomes involved.

Great thread!

I'm certain that you edc one but, just in case, I'd consider adding a water bottle, Dagny. That way you can start with a little potable water that you can drink on the fly. Good for hydration, first aid, etc, without having to wait for tablets, boiling, etc.

Airlift capacity has improved since the 19th century :-). Between 9.0M EQ effects and tsunamis and seiches, there's not alot of hope that the ports will be operable for a week or more, and if operable whether you can roll trucks or railroads anywhere near them to offload assistance. Haiti was a good example of a port damaged by an EQ, that took 2-3 weeks to resume some reduced capacity - and it generally takes cargo ships at least 2 weeks to get here from anywhere with needed supplies. Meantime we have I-5 and I-90 that will be crippled N miles from population centers, so trucks rolling with relief supplies and staging them for airlift into the damage area from there, modulo surviving and patched up runways at Portland, SeaTac, Paine, NAS Whidbey, Bremerton etc. Routes out to the coast may not survive tsunami and EQs. In the Puget Sound area our fabled floating bridges might be taken out by seiches, 8-16 foot waves that will rock Lake Washington like an unruly 5 year old in a bathtub. There are a zillion bridges and roads that could be taken out by landslides and shake activity. On the response side, there are Naval Stations on the Oly Peninsula and in Everett typically with aircraft carriers in port to deploy; helicopters and C-147s can be sortied from Spokane Fairchild and California as necessary to supply the area until roads and bridges can be recovered. The PNW's level 4 trauma center has an iffy chance of surviving a CSZ or other significant EQ. A CSZ event is probably a worst case scenario for the PNW, requiring not only a tsunami response along the coast but also severe damage and casualties across the interior. A CSZ EQ will require the type of national and international response we saw in Katrina. It will be a mess. Local county or state EMD are rich with HIVA analyses that are still being updated after drilling on this scenario in 2010, and taking into account new research and the outcome from the Japan EQ - http://www.kingcounty.gov/safety/prepare/EmergencyManagementProfessionals/Plans.aspx.

The reality is that while dire and lethal, the CSZ is a worst case disaster, and there will be many other less dire and lethal disasters before it occurs. Most of the EM budgets are going to an all hazards response, and to responding to the ever present reality of wind storms and ice storms and floods which happen ever year or few, and which tend to incapacitate most of the PNW almost as badly as a CSZ quake.

This almost goes without saying in this forum, but I encourage anyone alarmed by the potential of a CSZ quake to review these HIVA analyses and get prepared for the more common ones, because by doing that you are more prepared for the bigger ones. Also get involved - local responders and secondary responders like the American Red Cross, Salvation Army, Southern Baptists etc need you in the event hundreds or thousands of people need food and shelter - but also between times when folks in your community need you, right now. CERT skills may be valuable, preserving the lives of family and neighborss. Folks with ham radios who are licensed and trained and not afraid to use them will also be in demand, and as hams know the better organized you are into groups the more effective you will be in coordinating responses. That sort of thing. My perspective, we all spend alot of time responding to the smaller disasters, and while we have plans for the bigger ones that may occur every 100-200 years, our ability to respond to larger disasters comes from repeatedly responding to the smaller ones. There is a helluva lot of coordination that has to happen for folks in King or even Kitsap county to help out folks out in Jefferson or Pacific County along the coast, but frankly in the early days we won't be able to help them, let alone access them. We're all on our own for a while in a CSZ event, just like after major wind or snow storms, so it makes sense to prepare accordingly.

my coastal buddy chimes in again:

How am I going to survive it with family in the Coos Bay area? My house is as 40 ft above sea level. The newly updated inundation zone maps have the tsunami lapping at my front door. We have a pantry and water stores. I imagine that all houses will be knocked off of their foundations and utility lines will be broken. power lines will come off their poles. Street pavements will be busted up. Bridges down. If the house survives the earthquake/tsunami, and doesn't burn down in the fires that break out afterward, it will be crooked and breezy, but it will provide basic shelter from the elements.It would be condemned if there were building inspectors around to enforce that. Everything inside will be thrown around and busted up. fridge tipped over. Contents of fridge and cupboards broken and spilled on the floor. broken glass and crockery everywhere. floors covered ankle deep in crap.

We will tend to the injured. Check on the neighbors. Get organized. Inventory food and plan to use fridge food first, freezer food second, and dry/canned goods last. Clean up the best we can. Toilets/sewer lines not working, so dig a latrine in the back yard. Set up a makeshift kitchen in the back yard. Set up basic sanitation practice.

Our children go to school 5 miles away across the bay. if it happens during the week, bridge out, the parents will figure out a way to get boats across the bay to retrieve kids. After a week of improvising, a new routine will emerge. There are a lot of elderly folks living alone in houses. Maybe we'll figure some way of getting younger, displaced people and families to move in temporarily with older homeowners. The guests can help out with chores and getting potable water and fuel for cook fires, the older home owners provide shelter. Some kind of social synergy will occur.

After we get basic needs taken care of, we may find time to organize to clear roads, repair port facilities, organize shelters at public buildings for red cross and large institutions to run.