Originally Posted By: Dagny

Given that the last big quake was 312 years ago, one might argue that a very bad day on the Cascadia Subduction Zone is ominously overdue.
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Dagny,

That statement is a complete misuse of the concept of recurrance. The average interval between earthquakes is subject to an enormous amount of variation. Even if there is a 37% chance in the next 50 years, if it does not occur in that time, the following 50 years still have only a 37% chance (given no new data).

Respectfully,

Jerry