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#243093 - 03/14/12 04:53 AM "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ)
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1918
Loc: Washington, DC

I've read a lot on the Pacific Northwest's Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake peril, but this article is very interesting. Published online yesterday.

http://discovermagazine.com/2012/extreme-earth/01-big-one-earthquake-could-devastate-pacific-northwest/article_view?b_start:int=0&-C=

Based on historical averages, the southern end of the fault—from Cape Mendocino, California, to Newport, Oregon—has a large earthquake every 240 years. For the northern end—from mid-Oregon to mid-
Vancouver Island—the average “recurrence interval” is 480 years, according to a recent Canadian study. And while the north may have only half as many jolts, they tend to be full-size disasters in which the entire fault breaks from end to end.

With a time line of 41 events the science team at OSU has now calculated that the California–Oregon end of Cascadia’s fault has a 37 percent chance of producing a major earthquake in the next 50 years. The odds are 10 percent that an even larger quake will strike the upper end, in a full-margin rupture, within 50 years. Given that the last big quake was 312 years ago, one might argue that a very bad day on the Cascadia Subduction Zone is ominously overdue. It appears that three centuries of silence along the fault has been entirely misleading. The monster is only sleeping.

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#243095 - 03/14/12 05:08 AM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Dagny]
Leigh_Ratcliffe Offline
Veteran

Registered: 03/31/06
Posts: 1355
Loc: United Kingdom.
So California drops into the sea. This is how a problem, beyond not having to print " The state of California considers certain chemicals in this product to cause cancer" on every damn thing?
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#243098 - 03/14/12 05:27 AM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Leigh_Ratcliffe]
Hikin_Jim Offline
Sheriff
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 10/12/07
Posts: 1804
Loc: Southern California
Actually, it is the states of Washington and Oregon, not California, that appear to be at greatest risk.

HJ
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#243100 - 03/14/12 06:17 AM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Leigh_Ratcliffe]
Roarmeister Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 09/12/01
Posts: 960
Loc: Saskatchewan, Canada
Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe
So California drops into the sea. This is how a problem, beyond not having to print " The state of California considers certain chemicals in this product to cause cancer" on every damn thing?


Yer wrong. California lives. It's the rest of North America that sinks. smile

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#243104 - 03/14/12 08:33 AM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Roarmeister]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Actually a good chunk of California is moving north. California is the new Alaska.....
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#243113 - 03/14/12 12:31 PM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Roarmeister]
Leigh_Ratcliffe Offline
Veteran

Registered: 03/31/06
Posts: 1355
Loc: United Kingdom.
Originally Posted By: Roarmeister
Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe
So California drops into the sea. This is how a problem, beyond not having to print " The state of California considers certain chemicals in this product to cause cancer" on every damn thing?


Yer wrong. California lives. It's the rest of North Amer
ica that sinks. smile


Briefly. If that happens Astute will be dispatched to finish the job.


Edited by Leigh_Ratcliffe (03/14/12 12:33 PM)
_________________________
I don't do dumb & helpless.

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#243117 - 03/14/12 02:27 PM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Dagny]
JerryFountain Offline
Addict

Registered: 12/06/07
Posts: 418
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Originally Posted By: Dagny

Given that the last big quake was 312 years ago, one might argue that a very bad day on the Cascadia Subduction Zone is ominously overdue.
[/i]


Dagny,

That statement is a complete misuse of the concept of recurrance. The average interval between earthquakes is subject to an enormous amount of variation. Even if there is a 37% chance in the next 50 years, if it does not occur in that time, the following 50 years still have only a 37% chance (given no new data).

Respectfully,

Jerry

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#243156 - 03/15/12 12:55 AM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Leigh_Ratcliffe]
Byrd_Huntr Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 01/28/10
Posts: 1174
Loc: MN, Land O' Lakes & Rivers ...
Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe
Originally Posted By: Roarmeister
Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe
So California drops into the sea. This is how a problem, beyond not having to print " The state of California considers certain chemicals in this product to cause cancer" on every damn thing?


Yer wrong. California lives. It's the rest of North Amer
ica that sinks. smile


Briefly. If that happens Astute will be dispatched to finish the job.



"DOWN PERISCOPE!!!!!"


Attachments
pacific-fleet_100724-n-5684m-823c.jpg


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#243157 - 03/15/12 01:20 AM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Leigh_Ratcliffe]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 2322
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe
So California drops into the sea. This is how a problem, beyond not having to print " The state of California considers certain chemicals in this product to cause cancer" on every damn thing?

Ha! Good one Mr. Ratcliffe!

Actually, if California breaks off and floats far enough away from the US west coast, it might be able to reattach itself to some of those nutcase countries on the other side of the world where it would feel more at home. North Korea would be good.

I'd hate to see Oregon and Washington go though... frown

An no, Californians, ... it's not you. It's your stupid politicians.

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#243254 - 03/17/12 06:30 AM Re: "Giant, Underestimated Earthquake Threat" (CSZ) [Re: Dagny]
Chisel Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/05/05
Posts: 1563

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