I guess the meaning of evacuation is somewhat hazy. According to one source, many people left San Francisco in 1906 and traveled all the way.....to Berkeley and Oakland. I think the scenario envisioned by those in central Oregon is just a trifle unrealistic - a sort of atavistic dread of "them furriners on t'other side of the mountain."

After all, we are a fairly well developed country with the ability to respond decently to disasters (Katrina notwithstanding - the record in California and elsewhere is reasonable).

Besides, I and others are CERT trained - we can leap tall buildings at a single bound - provided they have collapsed first....

This wikipedia page has some interesting information on mass evacuations back to the first century.

Also the mass evac of millions from the 2008 Sichuan earthquake is in question as there has never been any substantial numbers released by the government of China. This Google custom search has more links then you could ever read about on this particular earthquake. Also the wikipedia page on the Sichuan earthquake is very informative.

maybe we should look at the simple process of "evacuation" and be a little bit humble. Many Americans have become "creatures of the automobile". A lot of people hardly spend any time walking any significant distance at all.

I have a feeling that a lot of folks who tried to walk out of a major emergency zone ... might get into serious discomfort pretty quickly. At which point they would just kinda "shut down" and become stranded. Hence the modern day evacuation might turn into a very short exodus to the closest bedroom suburb (or town) beside the city that was affected. I pity the residents of those small towns and suburbs.

it seems to me that I vaguely recall a conversation a few years ago with someone who lived in a town just north of San Francisco. They said pretty much what I was hinting at above. The locals had some kind of plan to close off all the exits from the freeway, and compel refugees to keep moving ON - by force if necessary.

Pete2

It happened after Katrina with the town of Gretna. I think most of us probably saw news clips of it when it happened. I still remember it. I can sympathize with the Gretna mayor's perspective and the extreme situation everyone was in, but it's a very sad incident to recall.

Gretna reminds me of 9/11 when my wife worked at a major Manhattan hotel. Large corporations immediately reserved massive blocks of rooms so the hotel staff had to turn away--many times tearfully--tired and traumatized folks who were covered in ash and were trapped in Manhattan because the whole island was on lock-down. She said only a fraction of those reserved rooms even ended up being used at all. The staff tried hard to call around and find rooms at other hotels, but everywhere was booked, too. Of course, if the staff had let people into rooms blocked out for, say, JP Morgan staff, and JP Morgan found out there weren't enough rooms for them, someone would probably get fired. That incident also saddens me to remember it.

That's actually quite a journey by foot. The Bay Bridge was not built until 1936. The San Mateo bridge not until 1929. From SF to Oakland around the bay is in the range of 80 miles. On foot at an optimistic 10 miles per day, that's 8 days of travel.

One thing I always try to consider when going to see friends and family is how long would it take me to walk there. In most cases, it would be days if not weeks. Evacuation on foot is not something most consider, especially if bridge infrastructure is compromised. Add in a child or two or an elderly relative/friend and you're a long way from nowhere on foot.

i have a buddy living in coos bay (on the southern oregon coast), right in the middle of where the CSZ will likely occur. because he too is quite concerned about the possibility of this happening, i forwarded him this thread. here is his reply to me, which i thought was pretty insightful:


I've gone over this scenario many times in my head. When this M9 earthquake and Tsunami hits, all coastal cities and their infrastructure will be devastated. transportation corridors and electricity/natural gas transmission will be down. Bridges out.

I see people sheltering in place for about a week, maybe 2, until food stocks run low. Then the evacuation of the coast will begin. It may be on foot or on ATVs, but it will move toward the I-5 corridor, which will also be seriously hampered by cuts in transportation, and electricity and gas transmission.

The Cascades and high desert present quite a challenge/barrier to mass exodus of people from the coast. But relief supplies will have to come in and refugees will have to come out. Those trucks and trains probably will not run empty as they drop off loads and head back east. Many of us have family in the inland northwest or farther east. I imagine that 3 months after the CSZ rupture, the coast will be depopulated by at least 50% and the diaspora will relocate across the country, just as happened to some extent with Katrina.

As infrastructural is re-established, the diaspora will slowly return--also just like Katrina.

It is interesting that none of these scenarios apparently factor in supply/relief efforts arriving by sea. A major response by the US military and others in a substantial disaster would be a significant factor.

I thought the article abour Gretna, LA was pretty interesting.
That is exactly the dilemma.
Would a bedroom community become so fearful in a mass evacuation that they just shut everything down? Clearly ... yes.

But what about peoples' right to evacuate?
Why can't they just keep walking further - if they want to?

It's definitely a mess.
and the story does illustrate one thing - that sometimes you cannot go where you think you want to.

Pete2

Was that reaction typical and representative of the communities surrounding New Orleans? One would hope that that kind of attitude would be an outlier, ut that is probably a bit optimistic. I must say this story reinforced some opinions I have formed over the years about that portion of the country. I was raised during WWII in Hattiesburg; my first plane flight began at the New Orleans airport when we relocated to Dallas, TX, after the war. I last visited New Orleans in the late 70's during a business convention. Going for an early morning run, I was impressed with exceptional amount of trash and filth in what was supposedly a fairly decent part of New Orleans.

Needless to say, the stresses and strain involved in any natural disaster are exacerbated by prejudicial social attitudes and practices.

When I think of the South, I recall the separate white and black drinking fountains in the Woolworth store in Hattiesburg. We have gotten beyond that, but there is still room for improvement, and not just in the south.

80 miles - quite a journey? Yes and No. For some people, it would be very difficult or impossible. For experienced thru hikers, 80 miles would be less than three days journey over fairly easy terrain. I would seriously consider making a trip of that length on a bicycle, planning for about a day, perhaps two. The bike has some real advantages for evacuating - it can easily circumvent obstacles, and one can easily travel three times as far on a bike compared to foot travel, carrying equivalent weight.

Much depends upon circumstances and conditions, which will be fairly unknown when caught up in a disaster....