We should all be following this advice.



Any time I hear someone saying, "don't worry, no need to evacuate" I should be hearing them from behind me as I head out the door.

For me this means only one thing (besides having a flashlight)

CHEAPER FARES ON CRUISES! Whoo Hoo!

The next 4 weeks will be the best time ever to save money on a cruise, and you'll have hyper-vigilant crews everywhere on the globe.

With 16,000,000 passengers last year on cruise ships with no accidental loss of life (and each cruise ship carries the equivalent of over 20 jetliners), this statistical outlier event is going to make it so much cheaper to buy tickets, you won't see prices like this again for YEARS if EVER.

So if you ever wanted to go on a cruise - by all means, make it this year.

Travel industry hasn't reported any downturn in Jan bookings yet, their busiest time of year.

Like an isolated plane crash doesn't deter people from flying for very long...

However, it's still worth looking for deals.

This incident certainly seems to validate that statement.... [/quote]

No, no it does not.

Look, I'm all for safety and all that, but I'm also realistic about risks, and cruise ships are NOT "death traps" by any rational definition of the term.

In terms of passenger miles, in terms of hours at sea, by basically any metric, cruise ships are generally safe. Yes, a ship lying on its side in some harbor somewhere is sad, scary, whatever. And the last time you saw the same things was....??? Go ahead. Think a while. I'll wait.
Yeah, I can't think of anything either without resorting to Google search.

And that's my point. Now think a moment about the last fatal car wreck you're aware of. Last week? Last month? Last year? There's at least one in your memory, probably more.

Don't let the drama of the media overwhelm your rational brain. It's on the news because it's rare, "impossible" and terrifying. Yet, today, over a dozen people will fall of a ladder and die. Today, several child will ingest poison and die. Today, someone will get killed on the job by electricity. Today, hundreds of people will die of a heart attack. Today, thousands of people will die of chronic illness. And today, there is one cruise ship, at one location, where 0.52% of the people on the ship didn't get out. 0.52%. That means 99.48% of the people on that ship got out in time. That's a pretty good number in any emergency at this scale. Certainly a better survival rate than a plane crash, which tend toward 0% survival.

I grew up on the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico...while it is unlikely I'll be doing any cruising in the near future, but if so would like the ship's officers to be graduates of the US Naval Academy, with USS preceeding the ship's name, and the letters CVN followed by numbers between 68 and 77

Good point Martin. I have been on dozens of cruises without any hint of a problem.

For me, statistics don't make something a Death Trap. The ability to escape when trouble starts is what defines it for me. You can't even jump overboard on a cruise ship without risking serious injury. You are essentially trapped on board until they let you off.

High rises, airplanes, and even taxi-cabs all have this potential.

But the the facts - the evidence - that's all that matters in the end.

Look, I'm in emergency management. We have to think risk modeling all the time, and one of the instructors at a course I took reminded the class that the most dangerous thing we did so far on the day of the class was drive to the training center.

News today .. the cruise ship line has pointed blame directly at the captain. Not good for him.

Looking at it rationally, there were something like 3,000-4,000 people on this boat. Do I have this right? And only 5-6 died. Which means that 99.9% of the passengers survived the incident, even though the boat wound up on its side. That's actually a pretty positive outcome :-) Especially when you consider that some passengers are elderly, and some may have limited ability to move and be agile. How on Earth do handicapped people make it off the boat, when it is tipped over sideways? So apparently some passngers and crew must have done a great job of assisting those in need during this emergency.

cheers,
Pete2

I was just looking at the BBC news report and photo's of the sunken ship. I noticed a couple of things ...

1. If you flip through the pix of the incident at the following BBC site, they have a remarkable photo showing one of the rocks that sunk the ship. The rock is still embedded in the hull of the ship.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16582060

2. I was very impressed with the Coast Guard divers who are doing the rescue. For some reason I had assumed that they were just swimming around the outer parts of the ship that were underwater - looking for bodies. But these divers are actually swimming along the narrow submerged corridors, and checking every cabin room that is fully (or partially) submerged. That is hazardous ... and pretty gutsy!!!

A hat tip to the Coast Guard divers who are making this heroic effort. WELL DONE !!!

And by the way ... if you look at the 1'st photo shown by the BBC.
That large cruise ship is extremely close to the rocks jutting out into the ocean.
OK ... maybe there is some photo effect from the telescopic lens that shot the picture.
But just the same - it was really bad judgment to be that close to land.
What on Earth were the captain and navigator thinking???

Pete2

Reading this piece about an American couple on their honeymoon on the doomed cruise ship raised an excellent issue--so what do you do after you escape the sinking ship and are safe? If you're basically left with the clothes on your back in a foreign land, do you have any contingencies to get home?

It's been a while since I bought travel insurance. Would that arrange for and pay for medical care or transport if you didn't have any cash or credit cards? Or would you have to somehow scrounge up the money first and then get reimbursed later? (Better than nothing, but not really want you need the most when you really need that medical help or ticket home.)