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#236854 - 12/05/11 08:32 PM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: chaosmagnet]
MostlyHarmless Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 06/03/09
Posts: 982
Loc: Norway
The Argentine blog writer Ferfal has a lot to say about the subject. http://ferfal.blogspot.com/

And yes, he really says it's a very gradual decay process, going from bad to worse.

About gold: I used to hold the view that buying gold and jevelry would be just replacing one useless currency (paper money) with another useless currency (gold). However, now I more think of it as a vehicle for moving wealth: Moving from one country with a rotten economy to somewhere better, or moving in time from a bad economic situation to a truly rotten situation and then to a (hopefully) improving situation. Gold or jewelry could be the one thing that stays insanely expensive through all those transitions, and allows you to keep and move wealth. At anyone time you can exchange some of it back to money and buy whatever service you need. The theory is that since paper money loses its value rapidly through hyper inflation you don't have any more money than you need at any given time, whereas gold cold keep its relative value. Paper money would be reduced to an intermediate medium between the transactions of selling gold and the transactions of buying expensive and vitally important services.

But I don't think you should expect anything to work that flawlessly ... finding someone who will give you good exchange rates for your gold (and not rip you off), the threath of being robbed when you have the family heirloom on your person... I don't think you can come through a recession without losses. But if a bunch of jewelry can act as a buffer that mellows out the real expensive PAY-OR-DIE emergencies then that is good.

Ferfal's advice: Basic preparations first (water/shelter/food etc). Then a bunch of cash. Then gold.

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#236880 - 12/06/11 04:52 AM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Cauldronborn2]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
I see the real value of precious metals as being a sort of stable, portable bank account in unstable times.

In normal times, you have savings accounts, CDs, IRAs, etc 'for later'. But all those things are dependent on conditions beyond your control.

Gold, silver and platinum all retain some value. Maybe not what you paid for it (gold today: $1,794), but it still has value when the other things have lost theirs.

But you need food to stay alive long enough to use it.

Sue

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#236950 - 12/07/11 02:08 PM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Susan]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Another interesting article on the Euro-zone problem -- UBS' Advice On What To Buy In Case Of Eu...e Weapons".
UBS' Advice On What To Buy In Case Of Eurozone Breakup: "Precious Metals, Tinned Goods And Small Calibre Weapons"

The part of the article of I agree with is in the title; buy "Precious Metals, Tinned Goods And Small Calibre Weapons". Then he discusses various ways it could play out (Take 1, 2, 3 ...) and none of them are good, which I suppose is the reason he advises to stockpile food, PM's and small arms; it's another view to consider. Gaming this out is good because we do not know how it will ultimately be resolved.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#236952 - 12/07/11 02:18 PM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Russ]
Paul810 Offline
Veteran

Registered: 03/02/03
Posts: 1428
Loc: NJ, USA
Originally Posted By: Russ

UBS' Advice On What To Buy In Case Of Eurozone Breakup: "Precious Metals, Tinned Goods And Small Calibre Weapons"


Funny how, the only two things I have from my grandfather, who lived through the Great Depression, are his .22 rifle and his gold jewelry/silver coins.

He was very adamant that those two items went to his grandchildren.

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#236968 - 12/07/11 06:19 PM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Paul810]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
Quote:
Funny how, the only two things I have from my grandfather, who lived through the Great Depression, are his .22 rifle and his gold jewelry/silver coins.


Your grandfather knew. He was there. We can only suspect.

Sue

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#236975 - 12/07/11 06:36 PM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Susan]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Another tutorial type article on how we got here -- From state debt to state money by some Dutch guy. IMO the way to prepare for a Euro zone collapse is to get out of debt and stop contributing to the problem.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#236995 - 12/07/11 11:29 PM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Russ]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
Quote:
IMO the way to prepare for a Euro zone collapse is to get out of debt and stop contributing to the problem.


This wasn't caused by Joe Durchschnitt in Düsseldorf, you know. He will be the one paying the price, but he didn't cause it.

Sue

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#236999 - 12/07/11 11:50 PM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Cauldronborn2]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Pretty sobering to read about what regular Greeks are doing with their bank accounts--they're taking their money out. Many have to, due to job loss or lost pensions. Many others are doing it to get their money out of the banking system or even out of the country.

Unfortunately, all bank runs (and this is one in slow motion) tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies at some point. Even if the reality is that the bank is OK, just the perception of weakness can lead to a run, which leads to the collapse of the bank. And even if it doesn't, less deposits means less money to lend out, again, throttling the bank. While big, money center banks have other ways of making money, smaller local or regional banks and credit unions depend on this business model.

You can read about it in Speigel Online here.

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#237003 - 12/08/11 01:04 AM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Susan]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Sue -- Ja, das ist richtig. The German people in general have been and still are savers; IMO they are the good guys in the EU debacle. Some retired Greek dude would disagree. Unfortunately, in a high inflation (turn on the printing presses) economic environment, savers get slaughtered. That is why the Germans are fighting the ECB turning on those printing presses -- inflation. The Germans should have gone back to the Deutschmark when they had the chance.

Unfortunately, the other option is default which will cause the Greek domino to fall over, followed quickly by France whose banks are too heavily invested in Greece and then it gets ugly. Italy and Spain are already on the edge -- lots of top heavy domino's in Europe.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#237007 - 12/08/11 04:17 AM Re: Preparing for a Euro zone collapse [Re: Susan]
MarkO Offline
Member

Registered: 03/19/10
Posts: 137
Loc: Oregon
Originally Posted By: Susan
Quote:
IMO the way to prepare for a Euro zone collapse is to get out of debt and stop contributing to the problem.


This wasn't caused by Joe Durchschnitt in Düsseldorf, you know. He will be the one paying the price, but he didn't cause it.

Sue


Actually, you & I are on the hook here too.

If there is a bad day in Brussels, my 401k takes a hit.

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