It was frightening to read this article describing the work of two independent research teams that have both created the nightmare pandemic bug that experts have been worried about for the last decade--a killer bird influenza virus (H5N1, as opposed to the H3N1 "swine flu" pandemic virus).

We've discussed this in the past. H5N1 ("bird flu") is highly lethal--up to 50% mortality in people--but fortunately, these strains have been very poor at spreading between people so the virus has never gotten a running start in any human population so far. But these scientists have created H5N1 strains that retain their original lethality but now easily pass back and forth between ferrets, which almost always means it will also be highly contagious in people, too.

The chair of the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity who is reviewing the scientific papers submitted by these teams and who has worked extensively with anthrax says:


If this virus ever got out into the wild somehow, it would be far, far worse than the scenario we watched unfold in the movie Contagion. Another scary thing is, these are academics who actually publish their results. There's no telling what kinds of bugs military scientists have conjured up over the years. At least those bugs are under military guard--at least the ones in the US. In the former Soviet Union and other places...?

No surprise. Bird flu didn't go away. It has its own trajectory.
It hasn't landed yet.

A lot of people sneered at the extensive precautions and immunizations a few years ago, because nothing happened. "It's all hype and hoax and BS, doctors and scientists are idiots, why did we spend all this money, we could have bought a lot of cheap beer with that dough."

Nope. We dodged a bullet the size of a large asteroid. But we only dodged the first bullet.

EDIT: Nature doesn't need a human agency to engineer and distribute the next version. So I don't ascribe to any related notions. There's already enough to be concerned about without politics.

IF (and that is a big if) the people that decide what strains to protect against select the right strains, and enough people get vaccinated, there won't be an epidemic to worry about so people will think it was no big deal.

OTOH, they have been wrong so often with their predictions that no one believes them any more. It is a lot like the weather forecasters. They are so often off base most people just no longer worry about weather warnings.

?? Weather forecasting has been getting more and more accurate over the years. There is no comparison between the forecasts of twenty ro thirty years ago and now, at least where I have been hanging out. There is also a lot more detail in the forecasts.

Right now Southern California is forecast for strong Santa Ana winds, potentially up to 80 mph, starting tomorrow night and lasting until Friday. The special weather statement is quite candid about elements of uncertainty, which depend upon the track followed by a low intruding into the central portion of the country. I find it highly informative and useful. Right now, no one can say how hard the wind will blow, but it will indeed be breezy. I will act upon this infor and batten down the hatches.

Generally the inaccuracies in forecasting seem to be more about precisely when an event will occur, rather than whether there or will not be an event.

I also generally believe public health pfficials when they warn about a potential epidemic and get the vaccine if possible. It works for me.

To piggyback on Hikermore ...

You realize that when they say "40% chance of rain," it really means "40% of the viewing audience will experience rain" not nessarily that they're giving you odds, right?

I agree about the weather. Back on-topic now ...

Why did they do this? For fun? Yeah there's a bunch of bio terrorism agents, but why on earth would they do this "because I can?"

I don't see this as a deliberate attempt to weaponize bird flu.

From what I've read, the intent is to predict the likely path of mutation that leads to airborne transmission (the nightmare scenario). Based on this, a more effective vaccine can be quickly developed. This is important, since there could otherwise be a lead time of up to six months between "we may have a problem" and "here is a vaccine."

However, there is great reluctance in the science community to publish details of how these results were achieved. Self-censorship goes against the normal process of scientific inquiry. But this debate suggests we are at the point where a few unhinged individuals with the technical skills and equipment could possibly replicate this. Yikes.

Molecular biology and genetics have really advanced by leaps and bounds in such a short time. It wasn't that long ago that mapping the whole genome of an organism was an essentially impossible task. Then the race between the Human Genome Project and Celera Genomics to map the entire human genome showed that it could be done, but at great cost and effort. Now, you can buy off-the-shelf machines that will not only break down and map a genome automatically, but you can also create a new one from scratch. Sort of a DIY Genesis-machine, I guess you could say.

Theoretically, we're at that point that someone could essentially just "program" the machine to create smallpox or this wicked H5N1 flu virus with the correct blueprint to work from, like programming a CNC machine to turn a new part out of a block of metal. You don't even need to steal an actual sample anymore. People no longer have to do things like dig up frozen corpses in the Arctic permafrost looking for frozen samples of Spanish Flu.

I believe that the free flow of information is better than harsh censorship, but some information carries a greater potential impact than others, and therefore greater risk for harm in the wrong hands. That's a tough one to balance in certain cases.

It's only a matter of time until humanity faces another truly frightening, devastating pandemic of some sort. I predict that whatever does eventually come along will catch everyone totally by surprise, so research like this may or may not actually help all that much. Very few calamities are really predicted accurately.

A bit tangential, but has anyone heard how flu shots have been going this season? Is it just me, or do flu shots seem to be available and pushed in more and more places now than just a couple years ago? One of these days, I'm half-expecting to be able to get flu shots where I pick up my morning coffee! ("One shot or two shots, sir? I mean, one shot of espresso and one flu shot for you today?" )

I think the pandemic incident probably soured a lot of people to flu shots. Just wondering how the uptake is today, now that some time has passed.

They are readily available round here; pharmacies typically advertise no waiting. My part time employer offers them every October for free. That works out as a win-win. Workers don't get as sick and there are fewer sick days and absences.

Around here, the clinics for seasonal flu shots have been ongoing for several weeks now. I'll probably get the jab since I'm a vector to/from an elementary school (a.k.a., ground zero).

With an aging population, the impact of seasonal flu on the health care system is significant and will probably increase every year. Costs go way up and resources are stretched. In that context, I begin to think that getting a flu shot is something of a civic duty; YMMV.