Well, I'm of the opinion that the point of no return doesn't guarantee a successful outcome but is your absolute last chance to turn around if things don't add up. After you cross it, you are committed no matter how things change with the fuel/wind etc.., because you won't make it.
So if things look alright 45 min prior and then again as you reach it, but then change for the worse 5 to 10 min later you're committed because now you can't go back because it's closer to continue.
And I bet that's a lonely feeling out over the ocean, by yourself when you know you're gonna get wet and you're 5 plus hours from land.
We don't know what happened, therefore it's impossible to know what he may or may not be guilty of.
Fred --
The bolded part... I did not go into the possibility that AFTER you have DYDD at the 45-minute to PONR point... and then AGAIN at the PONR point... that the wind could suddenly pick up right into your windscreen and ruin all your planning.
Here's why:
Using your own example above, any pilot (thass you and me, too) should be checking position regularly. So let us posit the very, very, very UNlikely happenstance that 10 minutes after you reach the PONR, suddenly the wind begins to blow right into your front window.
Think about it... really. **IF** that semi-instantaneous kamikaze wind is suddenly blowing right in your cockpit at 10 minutes after PONR...
...you say to yourself:
"Self? Guess what? There is a sudden and awful headwind. Your new calculation of groundspeed shows you cannot make it to Hawaii!! What to do, what to do? Hmmm... with a tailwind, I can cover a LOT more ground. That means even though I am a tad past PONR, (which was calculated as having the legally required fuel reserve of 45 minutes upon landing at destination) I can turn around and use that TAILWIND to safely get back to try again tomorrow."That is why I did not cover the bolded eventuality.
You seem to be saying that in spite of your new calculations showing you are gonna get a wet butt by continuing on INTO the headwind (if there ever was one, but we won't go into that), you gotta do it.
I respectfully disagree, bro.
You turn your butt around, and use that dirtyrottenevil wind to blow your butt and plane alla way back to California.
OK... let us go straight to the sublime... you are 90 miles from Hawaii. Suddenly, outa fargin nowhere, the wind hits 100kts right in your face, and stays there. NOW you cannot make it.
That is about how far you have to reach to validate the "sudden, unexpected headwind-as-cause" excuse.
The PONR changes (BOTH ways) due to unexpected winds. You can turn around -- with that nice new tailwind -- and fly all the way back. But staying with "get home-itis" will get you wet.
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