This sorta segues into my point:

"Edit: But you can calculate your ground speed, from airspeed and knowing the wind speed, or if you're lazy look at your GPS."

My basic cowardice ( ) would have me CLOSELY checking my GPS as I came anywhere even NEAR the PONR <-- I am an old fart, so I'm gonna stick with that term... it is very clear.

The wetness of the cockpit this morning seems to attest this guy had the insidious "get-home-itis" disease.

When I stated (and now restate) that knowing your position way out in the middle of the ocean is "easypeasy" stands.

You look up your GPS reading at 45 minutes from your calculated-before-you-took-off PONR position and see if you have reached it.

Here is where basic cowardice triumphs over "get home-itis":

You KNOW (it is written on your tablet) where you are supposed to be per your GPS at that mark. Do the numbers come close to matching?

If yes, bash on and have a nice flight.

If you are not there, turn your butt (and the plane) around to try tomorrow.

Refilling the tanks is a damn site easier that fishing for the plane.

Fred... everything you said was accurate. Nevertheless, by cold definition, this guy did NOT do due diligence in the "where the hell am I now that I am 45 minutes short of the PONR?" arena.

If the (previously "prayer-wheel" calculated in no-stress comfort back on the ground) numbers on his lap pad do not marry those of the GPS...

I ain't an idiot, and I am not a commercial pilot. But forty-FOUR minutes before PONR, I would KNOW if I was going to make it or not. With reserve fuel per the FAA and common sense.

One of my fave "get home-itis" experiences is watching the twin Beech crash on the I-95 overpass a quarter of a mile short of the Boca Raton runway... After the guy FLEW OVER THE AIRPORT AT LANTANA NOT TEN MILES AWAY.

Flying a lot can make [some] people overconfident and willing to gamble it all for a small amount of convenience.

Tell me that ain't so, and tell me that guy ain't guilty of it.