Thanks for the comments. I went back and took a look at the 1964 Alaska earthquake - which as you pointed out was a whopping BIG event. It's amazing really that Alaska came out as well as it did ... considering the enormous size of that 9.2 quake. Based on population estimates, it looks like there were about 90,000-95,000 people living in Anchorage at the time. It's pretty miraculous that only 9 were killed - there must have definitely been factors that helped to save lives.

Personally, when I computed those numbers above for Los Angeles, I was thinking that 20,000-30,000 fatalities was really not that bad [of course - it's not great if you're one of them!]. It still means that 99% of the residents of L.A. would survive the event. The predictions on homeless numbers may be too high, but I guess it depends on how widespread the fire danger is. I can think of some suburbs of L.A. where homes are VERY close together, and they are 2-story (or 3-story) dwellings. There certainly will be structural damage. And you know how people handle fire risks in their homes ... I doubt that many residents are taking strict precautions with fire dangers & flammables. So the possibility of fires seems very plausible to me, and there's no way that anyone will stop fires in those high-density communities. I'm less comfortable with how the outcome might work out down here.

But I do appreciate the counterpoints that you are making. I'd like to hope that you are right.

Pete2

If LA was struck with a direct Mega quake (8+) on a hot Autumn day, which precipitated a true firestorm then your casualty figures, I suspect are probably an order of magnitude out.

1923 Tokyo Earthquake




The Tokyo Firestorm of 1945 has also had estimates off up to 1 million people dying although the figure of 100,000+ is more readily accepted historically.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Tokyo_in_World_War_II

Again, consider that Japanese architecture, particularly domestic structures, were highly flammable, more so than such buildings in the United States. It is true, on the basis of several incidents, that fire after an earthquake, can present a serious hazard that may equal or exceed that of the quake itself.

I keep my gas shutoff tool underneath my bed, where I can get to it very quickly.

What I think of in the case of an earthquake, are the broken gas lines and water mains.

I remember watching the aftermath of the Northridge Quake, and the fires that soon followed, and wondered how many of them were started by nervous smokers who immediately pulled out their cigarettes and lighters.

Sue

Thanks for the various comments. I didn't start this thread ... but I kinda' hijacked the topic to the discussion of possible disasters in West Coast cities in America.

If you look at the spread of options for risks - you can see why this is a difficult problem for FEMA. Taking Los Angeles as an example, an optimistic scenario might lead to casuatlies in the hundreds or low thousands (assuming that most buildings do have capabilities to meet seismic vibrations from a quake). A moderate-risk scenario might involve casualties in the tens of thousands. And a worst-case scenario (major firestorm) could involve casualties in the hundreds of thousands. How is FEMA supposed to cope with this kind of spread in risks?? That's a pretty tough assignment, and so is the plan for dealing with the after-effects.

Still, I think there are some things that could be done - that aren't necessarily being done right now. I will probably post these ideas in a separate thread soon.

Pete2

One thing to keep in mind is that FEMA is a federal resource and must be requested by the state government to supplement in-state resources that become overwhelmed. So looking at FEMA as a supplemental responding agency, what resources are available locally/regionally (community, city/town, county and state) to meet the needs before calling in FEMA resources?

Pete

Yes it is a very tough problem, but I agree with you that much can be done.

One of my favorite quotes is from Dwight D. Eisenhower who was Supreme Commander for the Normandy Invasion during World War II, and later the 34th President of the United States. He said: "Plans are worthless, but planning is everything."

Emergencies will never happen exactly as you expect, therefore your plans will never be entirely right. However, having done the planning, you are in a much stronger position to respond to whatever has happened. You have evaluated your resources, and tried to fix areas where you are weak. It is usually much easier to modify an existing plan than to build one on the fly (under severe stress).

This is the kind of pre-planning that doesn't cost a lot to do, but can be hugely valuable after a disaster occurs. This can be done at the local level, and that planning in turn can be incorporated at the FEMA level. Some specific examples, by no means inclusive:

1. Communications inventory & pre-plan. Inventory what equipment, frequencies, procedures etc each agency has. There will be incompatabilities, so try to create a comm plan that will minimise problems and enable agencies to communicate with each other as best as possible. Disseminate this plan so that all agencies can pull it out in a hurry and put it into action.

2. Medical resources inventory. What hospitals are located where, what capabilities do they have. Integrate them into the comm plan. After an earthquake or other disaster, you want to find out as quickly as possible what medical resources are still functional, and which are knocked out.

3. Helicopter resources. Who has what aircraft, where are they based, and what are their capabilities. As with hospitals, integrate into comm plan so that those still operational can be most efficienly used.

4. Private resources (aircraft, bulldozers, etc). Again, inventory what and where. When FEMA (and Federal dollars) comes into the picture, contracting these will be important. Have contracts already agreed upon, which can be quickly activated when the need arises. (Wildland fire fighting agencies already do this kind of thing.)

5. Volunteer agencies. Local SAR teams, Red Cross, etc. As above, what is available, where are they, what are the capabilities, how to communicate.

6 ..Etc.... Etc

Hold regular table top drills to get all of the agencies practice in working together. Nothng smooths a rapidly changing response as much as knowing the faces of those you are called upon to work with.

The annual local drill, the California Shakeout, is coming up on Oct 20. This thread is prompting me to inquire a bit more closely into the state of planning for the Big One. I actually suspect that some fairly extensive gaming has occurred.

One thing about California. We should be able to cooperate effectively in the event of an earthquake-induced firestorm, fires being fairly common occurrences around here. Santa Ana season is on the horizon.

How's this for an awful double-whammy: Major earthquake during Santa Ana Winds?

I've been through enough Santa Anas for just the idea to make me feel sick.

Sue