OK folks, so it looks like Hurricane Irene is coming my way. Here's the current track data from the National Hurricane Center, with NYC / Eastern Long Island marked with a red circle.



The water is pretty warm up here right now, so if the storm is still organized when it gets back over water after North Carolina, I fear it could remain strong by the time it gets to me.

I live on a barrier island off the coast of Long Island, just south of JFK airport. I know some people who stayed put during Hurricane Gloria years ago, and the island was innundated in several places with the ocean and bay meeting. With two young kids, I'm not willing to take chances like that.

DW and I have made our bug-out plans. I'm going to start packing today. Friday we head into NYC. If it looks really bad, DW and the kids will continue on to the Catskills with her parents, while I stay in NYC so I can try to get back ASAP after the storm to mitigate whatever damage I can. If it's looking like a category 1 or 2, we'll all stay in the city to ride it out. Looks like I may be spending Friday moving things up to the second floor of the house, and putting up plywood before we go.

I'm sure my neighbors will think I'm over-reacting on Friday, when the weather is still supposed to be quite nice. I know my friends who surf are looking forward to the storm's approach!

What are other people in the NYC area planning? Any suggestions?

Sounds like a good idea to prepare for the New York Hurricane Irene as it is also looking like the Hurricane will hit during the high tide as well.

For Coney Island Aug 28th High 7:51 PM 6.2m

If there is few thing about New York and Hurricanes, they are;

1) 'It can't happen in New York' is the general viewpoint much like Earthquakes.

2) Most aren't aware of the Worse case scenario for flooding extent during a major Hurricane.

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/nys_storm_surge_zones.pdf

3) There is very little time to prepare before the hurricane Track firms up due to the ground speed of the hurricane.

4) Getting out of New York if a major evacuation is required (>2 million low lying folks) is announced (see 3) makes it virtually impossible to get out, which is why the authorities will never issue a Houston or New Orleans mandatory evacuation.

Confirm that your insurance is paid up and that you're not missing any needed coverage? Back up data and remove anything irreplaceable like photographs or difficult to replace like important documents? Arrange backup power for sump pumps?

Useful tracking tool

It sounds like you're using your common sense. Good luck with your plans and I hope it doesn't ruin your place.

And it doesn't matter if the others think you're over-reacting -- what's the big deal of leaving and then going back? 'Ell's bells, you'd do that to deliver your kids to a birthday party!

What's the main drawback, that you all return safe and uninjured?

Sue

Hey, pretty tool.

I'm driving to New York this weekend, actually. Not too worried about the hurricane, since no natural phenomenon in its right mind would go through the toll roads around there. I've also never managed to figure out the New Jersey jughandle, and I'm smarter than a storm. I am packing my kit, though. Seems like I'll have to add my scuba gear just in case.

Seriously, I'll throwing some more food in my kit in case I get stranded. Better rain gear than the default poncho. In general I'll pay attention to the radio and play it safe. Err on the side of cowardice if necessary. Anything else?

DB

if you are putting up plywood... PlyLocs work pretty well for inset masonary windows, just have to get good measurements ...if you are screwing to wood frame use the #25 TorX headed deck screws, as they are easier to remove...if you have time, put a coat of paint on the plywood, especially the edges...mark the location before you remove...shut off water,gas, pull breaker on the power...take a good video inventory of anything you don't take with you...would suggest good amount of cash as disabled phone junction boxes interrupt credit transactions...good rain gear and a couple of towels, LED headlamp for everyone...if you are not used to flooding and working in wet shoes, have a way(Teva sandals/shower flip flops)to allow your feet to dry when possible...good luck

FWIW, I have my mind already made up on hurricanes and other slow moving natural disasters, and that's to get my family out of the way of any that could put our shelter in danger or under water. If you have parents in the Catskills this is a great weekend to take the kids to see grandma and grandpa, you'll still have a storm to ride out there but you'll be playing Parcheesi in the light rather than listening to the roof come off in the dark. If the area you live in has a history of flooding, I recommend boarding up and getting out. Storms vary in intensity and storm surge, so its very difficult to assess whether to stay based on the last storm you or anyone remembers. Severe weather operate on longer time scales, with effects that may only occur every 300-500 years, before most any recorded habitation in your area. If there's recorded history and effects from the last category 2 then you can assess your house's survivability, but the fact that you're there during the actual storm really won't make any difference to the damage that may be done.

And consider leaving earlier than the anticipated landfall. Hurricane Rita is an object lesson in late movers and how they clog evacuation routes - and that was in a region of the country more accustomed to hurricanes.

Houses, contents - those are things. If you value them, pay insurance. Move precious items out of harm's way if you have time. Family, kids - those are the things that matter.

Good luck!

We have a little cottage on Chincoteague Island, VA which might receive some of the more intense tidal action. Currently, we have couple of friends staying there until Thursday night and we were supposed to have another friend head there Thursday night and stay through Sunday night. We have advised her it might be better not to go, which will be a non issue if they have a mandatory evacuation. Other than turning off the water and electricity, putting the beach chairs and bikes inside the house we really don’t have any plans for any additional preparation. We will ask one of the neighbors to check on the house after the storm and let us know if we have to head down the following weekend for any repairs.

Here in Frederick, we should be fine with home preparations.

Our team has been placed on pre-alert (resource availability and equipment preparation), somewhat for local events, but more for possible mutual aid to the eastern shore of Maryland. The state OEM is updating with daily briefing, so we should know a little more tomorrow.

Pete

good advice so far, especially about shutting off utilities at the main switch for each utility you have.

I would add that you should carry a couple recent electric bills with you with your name and address. It's not enough to have just a driver's license. There are circumstances where you could encounter roadblocks into your neighborhood and you don't want to hand out your driver's license to a soldier or other non-policeman if you don't have to. Much better to try to use an electric bill first and keep your license in your pocket.

Cash is king. Get a bunch. Be prepared to buy your way out of trouble if it arises. Keep the money spread out on your person so you don't have to flash the whole wad.

Don't let your gas tank get below half. Fill it up wherever possible. Credit cards and gas pumps don't work in a power failure. Carry a siphon.

Communication is important. Find a relative that is far from the storm's path to act as your "trip coordinator" since you will be separated from your wife. The coordinator can serve as a go between and message gatherer and also provide you with news, weather, routes, and other information. Give the coordinator all the details of you, your vehicle, and your plan before you leave and then work your plan and let the coordinator know of any changes as you go. Have a backup plan if the coordinator can't be contacted - namely, designate a church or other place to meet up with your wife at a certain day and time (assuming your house is completely destroyed and cannot be accessed).

The two most desired things after a hurricane are generators and ice. Plan accordingly.

Finally, stay safe. If you arrive at your damaged home with your wife and kids - sit them down and tell them that the number one thing is to NOT get injured. An injury like a nail through the foot or hand will cause your entire party to have to stop everything and address the injury and definitive care will not be a few minutes away like it used to be. Number one is DON'T GET INJURED. Go slow, think about each action - even little things like a child accidentally drinking water from a tap. Watch for nails and glass - hazards will be everywhere.

Good luck to you and your family and I wish you the best.

Why not, what are the risks?

It seems like carrying some sort of utility bill or bank statement might be a good idea in case your driver's license is not enough to prove your identity for whatever purpose, but it's hard for me to imagine how this would help you out at the roadblock.

Assume the roadblock is run by soldiers, police auxiliaries, etc. Not showing your license to begin with might make you look suspicious, and they'll ask, "Do you not have your license on you? Is that why you handed me this bill? Have you forfeited your license, sir? Please step out of the vehicle."

Assume the roadblock is run by robbers. You're better off just backing up and driving away. It's a little hard for me to see how your electric bill would help you. Maybe I'm missing something here...

Da Bing

Excelllent advice. My understanding is that typically just as many fatalities occur during after action cleanup as happen during the actual storm event. I'll bet that works for earthquakes and other widespread disasters as well.

The problem with roadblocks is that they are chaotic, crowded, and disorganized. 1,000 people show up to get through, but they are only letting a few through. It's manned by a bunch of 19 year old soldiers who don't really know the bigger picture they are just told to stand there and they couldn't care less about you or your house.

The real problem arises because a lot of the people who show up at the roadblock want to go through the neighborhood to some other neighborhood and they get turned back. They are told to go around and enter from another side. There might be several roadblocks that you have to go through.

When you finally show up to your neighborhood's roadblock you don't normally need a license. You just need something like a utility bill or a bank statement with your address on it. The soldier will take your utility bill and then walk away to a tent somewhere and someone higher up like a Sargent or whatever will try to find your address on a map because they don't know your neighborhood. This can take seemingly forever because these people have never been to your neighborhood and don't know the area. They are NG soldiers from some faraway place. In the meantime, you're standing there waiting in a sea of pissed off people. It is chaos. Don't give up your license - you may not get it back.

You may or may not get through that first checkpoint, and you may or may not get your utility bill back so carry a few if you can. You might get sent to another roadblock and when you ask for your bill back it is nowhere to be found.

This is exactly what happened to my grandfather, mother and me in Homestead after Hurricane Andrew. It was an absolute nightmare trying to get back into my grandfather's neighborhood. I've heard that Katrina was even worse.

Sure, you should carry your license but don't give it up unless you have to. Only a cop understands the importance of that little document so keep it away from civilian and military roadblock "attendants" if possible.

Mayor Bloomberg announces Friday if low-lying parts of NYC will need to be evacuated.
Story Here

He actually told resident to prepare "Go Bags" with water, non-perishable food, medications, important papers and extra house and car keys!

-Blast

That IS good.

And here's a reassuring quote from the article: "The Police Department has 50 small boats to use in the event of floods."

For all of NYC?!

That would be 1 Police Dept small boat per 40,000 folks as the coastline could be potentially 'Reshaped' according to Elliot Abrams

http://www.accuweather.com/video/90586657001/irenes-fury-aimed-dc-to-phill.asp

What do you want to bet that all of the generators and the supply floor of these hospitals are on the ground floor or in the basements?

They are at the hospital where my sister works, and the hospital is near a river in a flood-prone area. There's even a big delivery ramp to the basement.

The article didn't mention Long Island. I don't know the topography there -- is it low enough for people to have to vacate most of it? That would be a mess... and I wonder how long it would take?

Sue

Perhaps another way of looking at the small number of boats is this: "Our resources are limited, so if it looks like things may get rough, leave the area ASAP!"

The storm surge flooding could be extensive. Cat 4 is in Green Cat 1 is red etc. So a Cat 4 storm would push the Atlantic ocean inland about 2 miles over most of the Atlantic Ocean side of Long Island.

The numbers involved would be more than 2 million people affected with a Cat 4 storm i.e. flooded out and probably around 0.5 million with a Cat 1 storm. i.e. more than the numbers affected by the Katrina Debacle.

That map is not comforting - I'm firmly in the red zone!

We're packing, and getting ready to head for high ground tomorrow. I'm amazed by the number of people I speak to, many with young kids, who as very unconcerned about the whole thing. The general response is that all we're going to get is some wind and rain. It looks to me like there's a chance that the eye of a cat 1 hurricane will pass within 20 miles of here!

Wish me (and my poor house) luck!

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/08/25/tropical.weather/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

This is quite strange! considering ships usually head for harbour during a storm. Even more strange if the carrier was to ride out the storm would be to disembark any unnecessary crew such as the marines. Looks like a mobilisation effort has already begun.




As Major Bloomberg will be announcing any mandatory evacuation I believe on Friday afternoon/evening it might be an idea to Bug out before the weekend before the traffic chaos. I would bug out even if Major Bloomberg announces that New York can take anything Hurricane Irene can throw at the city.

Good Luck for both your family and your home.

I grew up in the south shore "red zone" a full 60 second walk from Great South Bay (the part between Long Island proper and the barrier island, Fire Island). We were in "Bayport* and a full and commanding 2.5 feet above average high tide.

Evacuation from Long Island is a bad joke. It is not possible for a mass of people: you have to go by boat OR through New York City (Brooklyn and Queens), and across one or more bridges to get to the mainland. The only real alternative if you live on the south shore is to head north, to the North Shore of Long Island, which is much higher than the South Shore (by 10's of feet). Seems the Glacier that formed Long Island dropped most of its accumulated sand/dirt/rocks in what is now the north shore, and the sand that ran off formed the south. The south shore is all sand covered by top soil.

We had close relatives on the north shore.

* Yes, the same Bayport of "The Hardy Boys" boys' books fame. At least the original books describe and had a depiction of our train station.

Not unusual at all. Small ships seek sheltered areas, big ships head to sea. That's just SOP. Ships almost always embark their full compliment when heading out as you never know what they may be called upon to do next. Returning to base is not a given.

Doug beat me to it!

Ships can take the storm at sea better than being slammed by coastal waves in shallow water.

Sue

Also, the ship is home for many of the crew. They have no housing on land.

I grew up in Bay Shore and remember how fragile Fire Island was during a number of storms.

Pete

Not to mention, if those ships are needed for rescue efforts, they're already manned.

Can you imagine a 800 foot long ship banging up against a concrete dock for 24 hours? I'll take the tossing about ...

Erp... Makes me seasick just thinking about. But yeah, better at sea than at dock.

Good luck to those of you in the path. If it were me, I'd grab the family, gear and go. Beat the rush, so to speak. If nothing substantial happens, call it a good test of your preparations for the next event!

Well, I'm ready! I'm in eastern nc, and it's starting to get a tiny bit windy and rainy. I don't wish any kind disaster on anyone, but I DO have to admit that I like a legitimate reason to "test" my preparedness.

While getting everything ready I have discovered the next ABSOLUTELY MUST purchase: battery powered radio. I think I put too much faith in "being informed by someone else" because I do live on a military base. I sort of expect them to "take care of us" as far as keeping us informed (They have the neighborhood P.A. sytems and such).

My neighbor across the street has a flag on a pole that they haven't taken down yet. I keep visualizing it turning into a flying projectile that destroys my truck. I don't EVER talk to them, so I'm not sure if I am ready to go politely ask them to take it down.... Would you?

Let me offer a bit of an alternative consideration. The news media will be going crazy over the next couple of days telling EVERYONE to evacuate. The problem is that some areas, such as NYC, simply cannot be evacuated. Make careful considerations as to your distance from the storm surge, the type of structure you are in, and whether or not you actually live in a mandatory evacuation zone. Evacuation is no picnic. Prepare for traffic the likes of which God has never seen, gas shortages, hotel room shortages, and general stupidity and paranoia among the evacuees. There will be traffic collision fatalities. Consider the potential for being stuck in a traffic jam when the storm comes through -- a real worse case scenario.

So the options are get out early or "bug in". I live in hurricane alley in Florida and my house has been through three Category 2 storms with me in it. I am still here and my house is still here. I elected to "bug in" with my generator, MREs stacked to the ceiling, and 55 gallon drums of potable water. Neighbors returned after the storm to very light damage with stories of running out of gas on the interstate and sleeping in their cars.

All I am saying is that evacuation is not always the best option. If you are subject to storm surge in your area or are in a mandatory evacuation zone, then you don't have an option, you must leave. But you might be helping out your fellow man by not being that extra car on the road or body in the hurricane shelter when you do not need to be.

YMMV.

Abos-freakin-lutely. Its knuckleheads like that endanger the entire neighborhood. If he tells you to go pound salt, let the MPs or local police deal with them. I had a similar experience where an idiot neighbor stacked up a bunch of forklift pallets next to my property just before a storm. Didn't put up with that either.

Map of the expected storm surge flooding in Manhattan available at http://www.docstoc.com/docs/91979612/NYC-Hurricane-Evacuation-Map. Don't mess around, move to higher ground.

This is what I did. I looked at storm surge maps and experience with regular storms in the area to determine where the most flooding is likely. I decided that I am better equipped to ride it out at home, where I have shelter, food, water, etc. For me, staying seems safer. I know people in the area who did/are evacuating, a lot of those in a near state of panic. Most of the locals though are *always* prepared, and thank goodness I've been into prepping long enough to NOT be a part of the "French Toast brigade (rushing out for milk, bread, and eggs)" or the gas pump lines.

I say don't worry about it. When hurricane Ike hit my neighborhood it's windspeeds were 1 mph under Cat. 3. Some houses lost shingles and some trees were knocked down yet there was no damage done by flying debris. Every house here is surrounded by weak cedar plank fencing and none of these planks were torn loose. My opinion from ONE hurricane is the risk from debris missles is over-rated.

-Blast

If you need the radio fast Most radio shacks around me have a Handfull of Eton/Grundig Radios battery And Crank.

But but but but but!!! THe media told me it could send a egg threw a treeeee! A TREEEEEEE!

I used to be a card carrying member of the French Toast Brigade. In the years after Hurricane Andrew, the worst part of any storm scare was going to the grocery store to find almost completely empty shelves (almost surreal if you have ever experienced it), long gas lines, and people clogging up the Home Depot to buy plywood.

The I bought some MREs, five DOT approved gas cans, fuel stabilizer (a must), three food grade plastic water storage drums, and various battery options for emergency power.

I don't even go near the Home Depot or grocery store before a storm. I top the car off with gas a couple days in advance before the craze and then don't worry about it.

[quote=FrisketBut but but but but!!! THe media told me it could send a egg threw a treeeee! A TREEEEEEE![/quote]

Must have been hard boiled.

Id Suggest Getting a 5 Gallon Gas can with that kinda distance between filling up and such.

LOLOL! I really really REALLY LOVE MY TRUCK! I don't want flagpoles OR eggs flying into it! Unfortunately, I only have a carport, no garage.

I've never actually been through a hurricane before. When people started telling me it could throw around my kids' trampoline... it makes me think it could throw small egg-like objects too! ;p

Moot point anyway, the neighbors are *Finally* outside securing all their items! Jeez, it just drives me crazy to see people waiting until the LAST possible second!

If you Trampoline Does not have the saftey net id flip it up side down and throw a strap over it with a couple tent stakes if it does i thin the legs would be easier to remove and then stake it down with a a few straps.

My friend in NYC was just at Target buying some supplies. Situation normal there, she said, except maybe for more bottled water jugs in people's carts than normal.

I woulda Sat back with a cup of tea and watched them fight the wind and rain with a happy little smirk maybe bullhorn a few words of encouragement.

Awesome. I got a good laugh out of that one.

Thanks, took care of that yesterday! I flipped it and then used tie down rope things (whatever they're actually called) to secure it to two trees.

Oh I Like you. Tie Down Straps if Im not mistaken, they usually have a ratcheting mechanism on them.

I should have been clearer, I have 5 of these puppies in the five gallon flavor.

I want....

My daughter lives in Wilmington, NC, her husband is in the Coast Guard (Station Wrightsville Beach, he will be taking one of the boats to the docking near the USCG Defiance.

She, my 1 year Granddaughter and their two dogs are headed west to a Warrior Dash event in Huntersville, NC. She is boarding the two dogs about half way to the event. She and number of friends had rented a house, so they should be okay, but may have issues getting home.

Stay safe-

Pete

LOL, yes the ratchet thing is spectacular for getting it nice and secure. Especially when you have little upper body strength and know practically nothing about tying knots! I just hope I can get it dried out enough that it won't rust when it's all over with.

ParamedicPete, (I haven't figured out how to quote more than one person),
I'm about an hour and a half from Wilmington, it's beautiful down there! Glad your family was able to get out of the storm!

They are admittedly overkill. However, again, I am on the southeast coast of Florida. In an Andrew or Katrina scenario, there's not a safe place in the state, I would evacuate to North Carolina to stay with family and my van would make it to somewhere near Jacksonville before running out of gas. I don't recommend it, but in a worse case scenario, two of those cans were going to the very back of the van with me. Not recommended, but better than fighting off zombies with a pick axe stranded on the side of I-95.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/26...y_n_938251.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/26/us-irene-newyorkcity-governor-idUSTRE77P5AI20110826


Looks like I got that wrong as well.

As with the public mass transport getting closed down by Saturday afternoon, it might be worthwhile setting the alarm clock early to do what you need to do to Escape from New York.

I've attempted to pass on some lessons learned after 55 years living on the Central Gulf Coast..

for Hurricane Donna in 62 we had about 2 days notice, lost both power and water.. extreme debris (septic tanks and caskets were popping out of the ground) and flooding...local river was 12' over the bridge railing..the one local grocery store was stripped bare of goods...no local hospitals or emergency service..it was an important teachable moment

infrastructure and warning and communication options have much improved since then

there is a reason I choose to live where I do, and hurricane season is part of the package...

I live about 3miles from the Gulf, but at 34' elevation..my personal emergency plan is to stay through a Cat 3 and evacuate to a relative's home (built to post Andrew code)following the "run from the water, and hide from the wind" dictum

I try to improve my preparedness a little each year...the O4 season was unique..three storms in about a month's time..and significant length of power outage....trying to sleep in the extreme heat was the greatest challenge...especially if you are used to air conditioning, and prepare for work at 6am..an open house with neighbor's generators running added to the challenge..

I added a class session of leassons learned with my students after each storm, and edited my hurricane preparedness lab, and 72 hour go bucket labs....you get a different viewpoint talking to 150 14year olds...

I tend to think of more pragmatic, day to day challenges, and welcome the opportunity to help

member of the Gator Nation since 1974

Hey, a fellow Gator! Cool. My first hurricane was Betsy '65. The eye went over our house. Lived through about six or seven others including Andrew. Andrew took my grandfather's house and only left a flat slab of concrete.

Like you, I was raised under the "ride it out" mentality and I would also stay home for a Cat 3 and under. Before Andrew, I would have said that I'd ride out any storm at home, but after Andrew, I've changed.

Press quick Quote at the bottom per post you wish to quote after each reply you make per person. Also id grab a few cans of wd40 and spray that thing down on the metal dunno how it would treat the non metal materials tho but you also take the non pressurized gallon cans and give it a good wiping down with a old handtowel.



Not overkill at all I would rather those beasts then the crappy plastic ones they sell now with the horrible safety features and nozzles so short you cant get the last half gallon into certain cars. Very depressing that the safety got to them and penalized everyone for the mistakes of the stupid.

Wow, these things are expensive.

Just to clarify: the regular storage cans (like the same company, Justrite's type II storage cans) release vapors automatically. This is good for storage (prevents pressure buildup) but not so good for transportation since if release occurs while in the car, it will smell and may possibly ignite. So they can be used for short distances only, like from the gas station home. Whereas these DOT-approved cans can be locked to prevent release while in transport. So they won't smell in the car and you can take them somewhat more safely over long distances. Is that the idea?

How unsafe are the regular plastic cans? Say I had to evacuate. In an emergency situation, is it worth it to take a few cans in the trunk, or is it so dangerous that it's better to risk running out of gas?

Jesselp, good luck with the storm. I don't envy anyone riding it out in Manhattan-it's gonna be ugly!

I have some of those, and even in the trunk, they make the car reek of gas just going the 1.5 mile home.

IMO, the safest place to carry loaded gas cans is strapped to the roof rack.

Sue

I know lots of people use the plastic jobs and have never had a problem. For me, the expense was worth it as I knew I would be dealing with a critical situation and needed to have a failsafe method to transport gasoline. I also have a van, so the gasoline would be in the passenger compartment with me. These DOT approved cans have gobs of safety measures in place and are designed to be tipped over an absorb moderate impact. I would not transport gasoline any distance in an enclosed trunk without a DOT approved container. Even then, its a calculated risk.

Well, we're out. DW and the kids left at about 10::30 this morning. I hit the road around 3, just before the mandatory evacuation was ordered for my area. Traffic was not terrible, so I feel good about leaving early.

I'm getting reports of gas stations running empty on SW Long Island. They're trying to evacuate everyone south of Merrick Road, for those who know the area. Long Island Railroad is running free right now, as is NYC transit. Most hospitals on LI are on diversion and evacuating patients.

I probably should have done better securing the house, but without a truck to transport plywood I was limited in my options. All outdoor items were moved into the garage, and I reminded the neighbors to do the same. I put sandbags at the doors when I left to try and keep out water.

Of course, "getting out" is relative. I'm in Brooklyn Heights at with family. Not ideal, but far better than my house which is two blocks from the beach, and just above sea level. I figure the house stays dry up to about six feet of surge at high tide. More than that and I'll be putting the flood insurance to work!

I'll post anything interesting that happens, and see if I can't get a photo or two of NY harbor during the storm. Wish us luck!

I found a rather nice interactive map of the hurricane's projected track. Although not obvious at first, you can drag the map, zoom in, and switch to a satellite view of the ground. The zoom will go down to street level.

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker

I just walked up and down the street and asked a neighbor to help me bring in recycling and garbage bins belonging to other neighbors. Some of us would like to not have such items becoming projectiles banging into our vehicles.

You'd think people could manage the low-hanging fruit like that.

Good luck to all in Irene's path. The first rains are just outside the Beltway so we're hunkering down.

By the way, double-check any outside drains and make sure leaves and other debris are well clear. Don't want to be dealing with it during the storm (speaking from experience).

That answers the question regarding whether Dagny and pooch would be bugging out or bugging in -- bugging in it is. Good answer.

Food shopping done, water jugs full, Element gas tank topped off -- take the pooch for one last walk and just wait for it. Good luck.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/221302.shtml
Looks like it's weakening -- one more crisis almost behind us.

I like the NOAA GOES Floater animated in IR AVN mode. Its simple and easy to use and gives you a good picture of the size and direction of the storm on a local level. I use the NOAA tracking map for predictions. I find the Weather.com tracker tries to do too much and is cumbersome. YMMV

Thanks. We were in a drought situation much of the summer so I'm actually looking forward to a cozy day inside, though I'm sorry it is at the expense of people more seriously affected by the storm.

Where I'm at the power lines are underground and flooding is not a threat. Many of my friends are more vulnerable to power outages and tree-fall so I'll probably be able to help them if need-be. Sounds like the storm's peak will be around 4:00a Sunday but the rains will start shortly.

The sky is already interesting, with the clouds to the north circulating from east to west -- opposite the usual flow here.

I was planning on riding out the storm on the Chesapeake Bay-Patuxent River (Drum Point, Maryland) where friends have a home on the water (high enough not to worry about flooding). The place is nearly due south of Annapolis.

We went there Thursday but I ended up coming back for reasons unrelated to the storm and will stay in DC.

Their backup generator kicked in a bit ago (10:30a eastern time).

They left their boats on the lifts at their docks so are obviously hopeful that it won't be horrible.

Good luck to you Dagny! We'll be praying for you from the cheap seats.

You're sweet to say that, 7points, thank you. We'll be just fine. We're smack in the middle of DC, not vulnerable to flooding and not going to see hurricane-force winds.

Probably won't even lose power (our lines are underground).

It sure has been an interesting week around here: once-in-a-lifetime earthquake on Tuesday, once-in-a-decade (maybe) storm and I was in the path of a tornado warning Thursday evening.

Next week likely will seem dull.

Unless an asteroid lands inside the Beltway....

Yeah, northwest DC and Montgomery County, Maryland, have had many inexcusably bad experiences with PEPCO in recent years (argues against monopolies). I hope your sister lucks out this time. Fortunately, the 10-day forecast is pretty decent and temps will be mostly in the 60s at night. Low to mid-80s during the day and since they're showing no rain for the next several days I'd guess it will be less humid, too.

Doesn't help with the refrigerator, though.

Old Dominion in Virginia has been better but a friend across the river in McLean still had a backup generator installed a couple years ago (big enough to cool a 10k sq ft house). There were just so many outages she was tired of losing everything in her fridge and freezers.

Hopefully PEPCO was giving your sister the worst-case scenario and the power will be back on more quickly.

Best wishes to her.

Odd photo #1

We just went for a walk along the Brooklyn promenade, about 35-40 feet above the East River / NY Harbor. Only boats on the water were the last of the Staten Island Ferries, USGC Safe Boats, and NYPD Harbor Patrol.

And the I saw this:


Irene cruise ship

That's a cruise ship docked at the Red Hook cruise terminal. Red Hook is smack in the middle of the evacuation zone, and I can't imagine why the ship would not have put out to sea to run from the storm. At top speed, I would have thought they could at least outrun the worst of it if they had wanted to. Now, I think it's probably too late!

Thoughts?

There are still ships as of 3:45 EDT sailing by Battery Park to get out of Dodge, so it apparently not too late yet.

Is there a reason behind that or just pure bureaucratic insanity?

I get along very well with cops in general and the local cops in particular, but this is something that would probably cause me to react less well if the sick baby didn't change his tune. "Write me. See you in court."



I hope she comes through it without any damage.

It sounds like Irene was completely overblown by the National Hurricane Center, media and government. It's come ashore with winds that aren't even Tropical Storm strength.

NOAA's Phony Hurricane
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/...h-33-mph-winds/

I can't wait to hear how the government saved thousands from this devastating major storm!

I normally would not respond to something like this, and I don't mean this in a disrespectful way, but I think the website you quoted is a crock. I'll let the people who are going through the storm right now tell you how "weak" it is. I think its potentially irresponsible to post garbage like this in the middle of a disaster where it may cause people to ignore official warnings and not take appropriate action. We can all argue about the politics of reporting after the storm is over, but until it is, I would not question official sources.

People are dying. It's a hurricane. All hurricanes are a big deal, especially when they are bearing down on population centers comprising 60 million people.

They are also not entirely predictable, despite improved monitoring technology.

If the government low-balled the threat, there'd be a huge outcry. The media hypes everything for ratings.

Reserve judgment until Sunday when the damage assessments start taking shape. We're not supposed to see the worst of it until after midnight. Virginia is experiencing worse storm surges than expected.

A friend near Annapolis just texted that her power went out two hours ago and a tree just now fell next to her house. Going to be a long sleepless night for a lot of people around here -- especially east of DC toward the Chesapeake Bay and the ocean.

There have been numerous comments to the effect that, although the wind speeds of Irene have been dropping, the large extent of strong winds still poses a real threat.

Please bear in mind that government sources have been accurately reporting the changes in wind speeds and do so routinely for this and any other hurricane. Does anyone know where to get better information?

I wouldn’t call 80 mph sustained winds hitting Virginia, 7 dead, and millions without power overblown. And remember it’s just now hitting the major population centers.

It's a bad storm, but where are you getting 80mph sustained winds from? Here's a map of winds in the area and they haven't gone over 70 since it came ashore in North Carolina. Now the highest sustained winds are in the 60's. Sure, there will be gusts but this is nothing more than a tropical storm at this point.

Note to self, when you are better prepared then everyone else, prepare to get company. My initial bug-in plan was for 5, I am now sitting at 12 as had several family members that were in evac zones. Made a mad scramble for extra food and water today.

Personally, I expect little from the storm, but I would prefer to err on the side of caution, of course, there is still nothing from preventing a tree landing on my house. We will see how things progress.

Bugging in Brentwood Long Island.

C. Rowe

I was reading the blog and apparently this blogger is using a discrepancy between NOAA and Weather Underground wind readings as the basis of forming his opinion. In the comments section of that same post, I found this comment by someone who actually runs one of those WU weather monitoring stations.

It isn't the WIND that is the most danger, it's the WATER!

Wind can knock down trees and power lines and rip shingles off houses and toss tree branches through windows. Big deal!

What do you think is going to happen with the storm surge in low areas? What about the people who live in basement apartments? How easy is it going to be to get to the elderly, infirm, handicapped afterwards with a lot of debris washed in? What about all the hospitals in the low areas whose generators are in the basement, and patients are dependent on them for life support?

What about sewage and garbage mixed with the seawater?

If the power is out, and the cell towers down, how many people have POTS to call for help?

If Irene makes an abrupt U-turn and heads toward Britain, what is the worst thing for the people who left? That they have to come back? SO WHAT? They've had an adventure with no negative results except maybe they missed a day or two of work or school, and were maybe forced to think about doing a little more disaster prep in the future.

Suppose the "National Hurricane Center, media and government" downplayed the danger, no one had evacuated (except ETSers) and Irene intensified and slammed into Long Island and Manhattan at a full-blast Cat 4? Would you feel better about it?

Jeez loueez!

Sue

Well said Sue!

Just because it isn't the apocolyse doesn't mean it won't have serious consequences, or that those effects weren't mitigated by the advance warnings. I can't imagine that the family of the boy who was killed when a tree crashed through his apartment roof are going to criticize the warnings as over-hyped.

Yes, the water is more dangerous BUT hurricanes are measured by wind velocity, not water. A CAT1 is 75mph sustained or higher.

No, a CAT4 would not make me feel better.

My point is that the forecast was for a CAT3 hitting North Carolina and a CAT1 hitting New York. It was, in actuality, not even a CAT1 when it made landfall in North Carolina on Friday. Here it is Sunday now and they are still calling it a hurricane.

I believe much of the delay in calling this a tropical storm is political. Lots of powerful interests need this to be a "hurricane" all the way into New York. I mean, come on, they shut down the entire transit system of New York for this. It better be a hurricane when it hits!

The original purpose of this thread was for prep related discussion ahead of and during a hurricane. Now that the hurricane did not live up to your expectations, please don't troll and try to turn this into a political bash thread as it will not serve any purpose other then to have the complete thread locked. There are plenty of other lesser forums on the internet that would probably welcome your assertions.

Wait a minute..... Do you mean you're POd because the weather report was incorrect???

And you think weather is totally predictable???

Do the weather guessers in KY always get the next day's prediction right, much less the one for three or four days ahead?

Sue

Hurricanes, tropical cyclones, whatever you want to call them, are incredibly complex and large events that span hundreds of miles across. Things are not uniform throughout the whole storm but we need to make generalizations about the entire storm so people can have an idea of what to expect. Here's part of the Saturday 21:00 EDT statement from the National Hurricane Center:


So, sustained winds of 80mph in a part of Irene determines the classification and it is still a Cat 1. The fact that hardly any of that faster, eastern part of Irene has actually passed over land means that any land wind readings are going to be much lower.

If you look at the storm track, Irene has spent most of its time to the east of land, so residents have been spared the brunt of Irene's fury for the most of its journey up the coast, regardless of whether it's a Cat 1 or 3 or whatever at any given time. We should be thankful that it has mostly tracked parallel to shore because that's probably why Irene seems somewhat of a dud so far compared to what many feared.

If Irene's track took it further to the west when it went over North Carolina (and many earlier projections did predict that), then places like Cape Hatterias might've observed hurricane strength winds as the eastern section of Irene passed over land.

It's not easy predicting the track or how strong a rapidly changing hurricane will be days in advance but it's the best we can do for now. I feel sympathy for these hurricane forecasters, emergency managers, and all these mayors and governors. Like our swine flu experience, the people charged with protecting our welfare are almost guaranteed a "damned if you do, and damned if you don't" experience regardless of what they do or how things actually turn out.

In terms of preparedness, Irene isn't overblown even if it is overblown. There is a rush to buy canned food, flashlights, batteries, etc. We preppers just might say, "What? Didn't they already have all that in their bug-in kit? I certainly do. Come to think of it, let me get on eBay and order the Swiss rocket stove. My Jetboil and my authentic German military Esbit could use a friend." Some non-prepping people need the stress of a big crisis to get them to prep up.

As for the the actual status of Irene, I'd like to see some informed critique of NOAA's scientific methodology before calling the hurricane "phony." Where did they fail? What was wrong with their measurements, and how did they arrive at the incorrect measurements? Was there some sort of checking system to verify the data? Until then, I wouldn't put stock in that stuff. We need to check the science (i.e., the facts) before speculating about politics.

Arney's observation about the amateurism of Weather Underground stations seems to me to be kind of important. Maybe the weather gurus among us could tell us where to get good information. (I myself have been relying on the National Weather Service. I hope that's good enough. I do think that when it comes to tornados, they tend to err on the side of caution. Better to hide in the bathroom than dead, I guess.)

As for the media, yeah, they need stuff to feed a 24-hour news cycle. That explains stupid stuff like "how hot is it" this past summer. Dude, I know what 105 degrees means, you don't have to show cooking a pizza on the sidewalk. And then eating it. That's disgusting.

I wish I could surf in that stormy water.

Da Bing

Hi everyone. Just thought I'd throw in a quick aftermath/lessons learned" from Irene. First, I live in Southern Central VA. Going by the previous few posts, I really don't care what the storm was called, it sucked. I just walked outside and my neighborhood is going to have a lot of cleanup to do. Standing on my front porch, I can see seven trees blocking roads. One car is under a tree. We lost power last night around 5PM. No one can say when it'll be back on. As far as I know, and from what the neighbors can tell me, no one in the neighborhood was hurt. That's the good news. Everything else can be repaired or replaced.
As far as lessons learned, I'm fairly new to "organized prepping." We've always had a little bit of stuff in the pantry just in case, but it got a lot deeper after my daughter was born.
I guess I had pretty much all of the advised stuff to have on hand,and then some. After we lost power, I popped a couple of chem lights and put in the bathroom, just enough to give a little girl her night light, and help the adults find the needed target. I haven't gone out to start up the generator yet, need to get some tree limbs out of the way of the shed.
Sorry if this rambled on too much, sleep wasn't the highest priority last night.
Thoughts and prayers go out to those north of us in the path of whatever Irene is being called now....whatever they call her, she was a mean B!^&*

Welcome, glad to hear that you are OK.
Reports here in the UK suggest that although the hurricane is less severe than initialy feared, it is clearly far from trivial with a number of lives lost and substantial damage.
Shows the importance of preps.

What is the general view of the wisdom or otherwise of the evacuation order for parts of NYC ?
It seems to me that for those on upper floors of solidly constructed buildings, that sheltering in place might have been suited.
Supplies for at least a week would seem advisable.

Everything that Sue said, plus a bit. New York is a much more vertical city than New Orleans was. There are a couple dozen LARGE cranes that aren't rated for much over 50mph wind that as of the last update I had were still not properly contained. And the main NYC EOC is undergroud and built in a flood likely area.

You don't under estimate a hurricane. Not when you have a couple million people on an island surrounded by a river who's watershed is getting 8+ inches of rain in under 24 hours

And I would seriously question any attempt to say "NOAA got it wrong"- honestly, I smell ideology, rather than reality in that blog posting. Finding data points that fit preconceived notions even when that data source admits that it is imperfect, and then discarding everything else...

Y'all think it's ok to cry wolf and say a hurricane is going to be a major one so that it will force people to prep but it's NOT ok. The long term consequences are devastating.

Here's a good example of what happens...

Hurricane Betsy 1965 - this was a major storm that hit South Florida. It was properly forecast and reported and it was a devastating storm.

Hurricane Dawn 1972
Tropical Storm Dottie 1976
Hurricane David 1979
Trop Storm Dennis 1981
Trop Storm Isidore 1984
Trop Storm Bob 1985
Hurricane Floyd 1987
Tropical Storm Ana 1991

All of the above were very minor storms that hit South Florida but were all completely overhyped by the media and by NOAA and all of them did minimal damage. Most of these were forecast by NOAA as being hurricanes in the making. Everyone expected major damage but it never came. People prepped but in reality they didn't need to prep to the extent they were told to.

So what do you get by crying wolf at every little storm for two decades?

Hurricane Andrew 1992

By the time Andrew came ashore in 1992, people had abandoned sound building practices. Code enforcement had lapsed. People associated a storm that was forecast as a hurricane with the actual tropical storm that they experienced so the mental connection between forecast and reality was skewed. In other words, lots of people experienced minor tropical storms, but were told what they just experienced was a CAT1 hurricane.

Authorities had cried wolf so many times for so long that people did not properly prepare for hurricanes anymore. The forecasts became a joke amongst my friends. In the days prior to Andrew's landfall, NOAA received a lot of criticism for constantly hyping storms and many believe they forecast Andrew as a CAT4 instead of CAT5 because of this. The population in large part did not heed the warnings and forecasts due to their prior experiences with forecasts being overblown.

The outcome was devastating. Massive property damage and a population that was totally unprepared for the storm, before during and after.

Overhyping storms is not a good thing. The good people of North Carolina and Virginia now believe they have experienced a CAT2 hurricane. They did not. They experienced a tropical storm. Their mental association of those two is now engrained in them and that is a bad thing. What happens next year, when a CAT1 is forecast to hit North Carolina? People will say to themselves "Oh, we went through a CAT2 last year and it wasn't bad at all". The consequences of that could be devastating.

You forgot to mention Katrina and the number of folks who had ridden out hurricanes all their lives and this one would be no different. Doh!!

Peeps either have a survival mindset or they don't. A survival mindset takes every storm as an opportunity to practice for the really bad one. Was I really worried about Dagny living in DC? Nope, not at all, she's one of us and I'm sure she had already filled the pantry, stocked up on drinking water and topped off her fuel tank. However, it doesn't hurt to remind.

A governor, mayor or weather forecaster needs to high-ball the calls because if they fall short and people die, it's on them. By calling the storm at its high-end estimate, they are covered.

Yes, there are politics involved.

You accuse the authorities (the gubmint, perhaps?) of deliberately lying about weather prediction. Again, I reiterate my request: provide some critical analysis of NOAA's data gathering and analysis. Maybe what you call "hyping" is simply part and parcel of an inexact science. In other words, no manipulation is involved even if mistakes in weather prediction were made. If you can show that the authorities ignore sound science produced by NOAA, that's another story.

If you can't, then you are just making a political post. You can be anti-government, Baathist, PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER., Nazi, hippy, I don't care. But we don't do politics here. I don't think you have any scientific data to back you up. I think you start with a ideologically determined position, and then you bend science to fit your politics. That is just another form of superstition.

Da Bing

OK, here's the critical analysis... NOAA should have downgraded the storm's rating to a tropical storm as it made landfall in North Carolina. People would then associate the damage they see around them with the correct rating.

Was that too political?

No, not too political, but also not correct. The storm was still off-shore and winds where NOAA was measuring them ( Hurricane Hunters) were still hurricane velocity. Therefore, it was still a hurricane.

I don't personally know anyone who was actually in the warned areas (as opposed to, say, Kentucky) who is seriously complaining about evacuations and the urgings to be prepared for the worst. Yeah, we mock some in the media who are most prone to hysteria.

I don't know anyone who doesn't know that hurricane predictions are best guesses. Informed guesses, but guesses nonetheless. It's on these guesses -- which have a significant margin of error days in advance -- that authorities have to base their decisions on evacuation and pre-positioning emergency assets.

If fewer people had been cautious, more people would be dead. I prefer they err on the side of caution.

Sue made the excellent point, not emphasized nearly enough, that the hurricane threat does not just hinge on wind speed (which is the sole determination of the category 1-5 designation). The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is an important measurement of a hurricane's threat, but it is hardly the only one. Government and media would be negligent to focus solely on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Irene was notable for its girth, affecting a massive area where there are many communities, big and small, with limited egress. It dumped a lot of rain, on areas where the ground was already saturated. In some areas it hit at high tide.

The media and government - local, state and federal - were also concerned that it had been so long since the east coast (especially NYC) had been in a hurricane's path that people would be dangerously complacent. So there was much discussion of storms of the past and just what those past flood levels could mean in today's greatly more developed communities.

Irene also is not over and the damage assessment is just beginning. So it remains to be seen just to what degree Irene's wrath meshed with the warnings by government and media.

Meanwhile, in my immediate neighborhood there are some trees and many limbs down. And that threat remains while the ground is saturated and wind gusts are still occurring. Friends outside the Beltway, especially east and southeast, are still without power.

A lot more people in this area now have flashlights, batteries, gennies and bottled water. This hurricane season is young and Irene won't soon be forgotten. I think that around here, at least, Irene would prompt people to take future hurricane threats even more seriously.



"Virginia emergency officials said the power outages in the state are the second-biggest in history, behind only the outages linked to Hurricane Isabel, which hit the region in 2003. Officials said that as of Sunday afternoon there were more than 1 million customers without power throughout Virginia."

Hurricane, tropical storm, whatever you want to call it, it wasn't fun. We had lots of rain, a ton of wind, and enough trees on the ground to build a decent house. We're starting to see Dominion Power vehicles on the road, so maybe power will be back up soon.
I've gone out with a few of the neighbors and cleared the roads in our neighborhood. Fortunately, no serious damage by the trees, a few swingsets and sheds damaged, but no homes have any damage other than cosmetic.
This wasn't as bad as Floyd or Isabel, but can you really compare a storm? Some people lost virtually everything they owned. Others did lose everything, their lives.

I'm lucky. My home, my family is safe. I can provide power for my family if it becomes necessary. We were able to cook a hot breakfast and hot coffee on the grill this morning.

As far as misleading news reports, I feel our local news did a fairly decent job. We knew what was going on, where the storm was, and what to expect, and when to expect it. Maybe Irene will be a wake up for some people to prepare better next time. Maybe it won't. You could say that for pretty much anything Mother Nature throws at us...the earthquake earlier in the week, a snowstorm, whatever.

I've seen a few holes in my preps,and plan on acting to take care
of them.

Right now, I hope the folks to the north are making out OK.
Thanks for your time.

I'm pretty far from the effects of H. Irene, but one tidbit I saw in a NOAA forecast put an interesting slant on wind speed that I hadn't considered: that actual windspeed can be ~20% higher at an elevation of ~100-200 ft. Basically hurricane windspeed goes up with elevation, and alot of NYC lives at higher elevations, in buildings etc. I have it on my list to check with responders who deployed to Manhattan to see whether this was factored in to low lying area evacuation orders, or if the evacuation was based on projected storm surge, or both. The estimates I saw for storm surge were enough to prompt the evacuation orders imho. Despite the lower storm surge experienced, the idea that all those folks in all those high rises having the resources to get along come monday morning was a crap shoot. Although I have to say, god bless the bodegas - they stayed open to the last minute. NYers are tough...

Plenty of damage and danger to go around, wait for the storm to pass and the basic accounting to take place. Mr. NuggetHoarder, your observations are your amygdalae talking, nothing to worry about. Most folks on this forum can resist some powerful neurological denials, built up over millions of years, and take action to prepare for disasters, and avoid unseen dangers. Most people can't. Our brains actually evolved that way as a survival mechanism I think - never underestimate the power of denial. Our brains tell us not to worry when we really should, because on balance, there are more Irenes than there are Katrinas - so you may be right, and we might be too, its a conundrum. I think layering on political overtones to hurricane response is a pretty weak case though. When you're on the beach you either walk out into the rapidly receding tides to collect the pretty shells, or you run like hell for high ground.

After Katrina, Lt. Gen. Honoré was complaining that local governments and politicians only see the expense of preparing for a worst-case scenario, never how much money and lives it will save by having plans and people ready in place to help. He said they keep saying, "We're okay, we're okay... oh, sh*t! HELP!" THEN the machine has to be cranked up to get that help going. And in the meantime, 15,000 to 20,000 people were packed into the NOLA Superdome with inadequate food, not enough generator fuel, no water purification system, and overflowing flush toilets (no chemical toilets), topped with a leaking roof, and wading/sleeping in raw sewage. Meanwhile, a big bunch of school buses were parked and full of water; how many people could they have taken out?

Almost 2,000 people died from Katrina.

For Irene, NOAA predicted a hurricane from the info they had. City governments decided to be proactive and give evacuation orders and shut down the transportation system.

So far, 14 people have died from Irene.

You simply can't have it both ways. You can't give the word to evacuate when it looks bad at the point where you have time to do something about it, and then rescind it in the middle of the storm.

If the warning is given when it looks like it's going to be bad, and all the people have to do is go home and unpack their suitcases when the storm fades out at the last minute, why is that such a bad thing?

If people want absolute guarantees before they will evacuate, they're just plain stupid. And if they get complacent because they've gone through the routine a dozen times and nothing serious happened, so they stay, they're still stupid. But these are the same idiots who stay, get scared in the middle of the storm when their roof peels off, and start screaming for help from the same people they thumbed their noses at the day before.

The generous people who have been going in and risking their lives to rescue idiots who refuse to pay attention really need to stop doing it. Spread the word: If you want to stay and die, you have that right; but don't call for help, it won't be coming. You are responsible for your own decisions, good or bad.

Like Charles Dickens said, "If he be like to die he had better do it and decrease the surplus population".

Unfortunately, they keep their kids and pets with them, and they die, too.

Sue
Albert Einstein: "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

Well currently there are 4+ Million with no electrical power, give it a week or so then you will start to hear about how the great storm Irene was a Hurricane and not a tropical storm as it makes its way into history.

We had similar storm force winds gusting over 110mph a few months back with lots of downed trees but because there was no wide spread power outages (very little overhead transmission line on the last few miles) it was simply called a windy day.

The excuse is the "hurricane" is responsible. We live on the west shore of the Chesapeake Bay in Anne Arundel County. We lost power about 5:20 pm yesterday. Still without power and now running on the genie. Cable and phone/dsl went out shortly after.

Phone and DSL came back about 1:30 pm today. No cable or power yet and no estimate of restoration.

Now, we never had hurricane force winds. Rain in the 4-9 range, wind in the 30' (mph) only in gusts. (My neighbor thinks there was one a bit stronger.) But Tropical storm strength or less.

The power company that serves me states that since the beginning of the storm, there have been 471868 power outages reported, of which 171198 have been restored; 104893 out in by county, and 37139 restored. This power company does not provide power to any area actually hit by hurricane force winds.

IMO, I think this is a complete failure of preparation and maintenance on the part of the power company. Gale force winds and rain are not uncommon, and can happen in the many local thunderstorms we have each year. It seems that the vast majority of the outages are caused by tree limbs, and the occasional tree, falling on power lines. As part of the legal agreements and land easements the power company has, they have the right to come in and trim trees and tree limbs to avoid power interruptions. They don't do it. It seems more profitable to avoid preventative maintenance and ther to pay the costs to repair the outages, then claim "mother nature" was increasing their costs to justify a rate increase.

It's not as if our little area has had its first outage; this is one of many, and my neighbors and I have been complaining for years about the frequent outages. I walked around this morning and about 50% of the folks in our neighborhood had generators going. Several had extension cables running from one house to the neighbors. Kudos to people watching out for their neighbor, but the necessity for this is a shame.

Regulated utilities' profits are (usually) limited to a percentage of their costs. As a public company, they want to increase the amount of profit per share. If they reduce costs, their percentage profit remains the same, but the earnings per share go down because the dollar value of the total profit went down. Thus, there is an incentive to increase costs, which results in an increase in the dollar volume of the profit, thus increasing earnings (profit) per share.

Sorry for the rant, but after 12 years of this I'm tired of this power company's failure to provide power we can depend on.

Perfect Storm of Hype: Politicians, the media and the Hurricane Irene apocalypse that never was
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyha...that-never-was/

Does this company ever have meetings that the public can attend? If so, maybe it's time people did.

If not, buy a share of stock and become a stockholder.

Sue

No, but that isn't analysis. It's your opinion, and, as far as I can tell, it's an opinion that may not be informed by meteorology.

As for the Tony Harden article, I regard that as an example of the bad journalism so rampant today. First, it is an unedited, unvetted blog. Second, the article makes accusations without evidence to substantiate them. It appeals to emotions, fears, and probability. In other words, it's just conspiracy theory. For that sort of stuff, wait till you read my blog about Area 51, rectal probing, and the curved northward path of Irene. It's a code!

DB

I'm glad to know that. Welcome to ETS!



Good for you! Anything particular you want to bring up?

For me, a while ago I realized that I didn't have any tarps ready to put over unexpected holes in my house. I fixed that and fortunately haven't had to try it out.

My mom lives in NYC and refused to leave town for Irene weekend. Even though NYC wasn't hit very hard I thought then and think now that it was a mistake on her part. I have been working on getting her better prepared for problems. I know, for instance, that she has a flashlight that works (because I gave it to her).

Interesting article regarding Irene's lessons on how far they've come in hurricane forecasting, and how far they have still to go in being entirely accurate.


http://apnews.myway.com/article/20110828/D9PDAF0O0.html

Irene forecasts on track; not up to speed on wind

Predicting a storm's strength still baffles meteorologists. Every giant step in figuring out the path highlights how little progress they've made on another crucial question: How strong?

In many ways we lucked out in the Maryland/Virginia Chesapeake area, when compared to the damage caused by Hurricane Isabel. The winds drove the water from the bay; so much of the rain hitting the Eastern shore was able to drain without causing the same of flooding during Isabel.

The family at home encountered no problems. No power outages, no wind damage.

I was at the fire station throughout the event for possible deployment. Our team deployed two members ahead of time with Maryland State Police (MSP) - Aviation Division and had several more standing by. We also prepared a FEMA Type II water rescue team for deployment and maintained a contingency of members for local responses. Other that one member deployed with MSP –Aviation who provided surveillance flights over the Southern and Eastern-Shore Maryland areas, no water rescue or evacuations actions took place of which I am aware.

To all of those who suffered damage, my thoughts and prayers go out for a speedy recovery.

Pete

I think we are spoiled rotten. Hurricane prediction has made amazing progress in my lifetime, and the loss of life has been reduced accordingly. Remember Galveston? Now we are quibbling about a few mph - I doubt I could tell the difference between 73 and 75 mph - the "all important" distinction between a killer Hurricane and an insignificant, insipid tropical storm.

Now if we could just do as well with earthquake prediction. Upon which political group do I place the blame for the lack of progress in this area? It must be someone's fault........

Has there ever been a Hurricane Jeanette? Dagny? BacPakJac? Christina?

If so, I am sure they woudl be memorable?

Apologies to those forum members whose names I did not list...

Yeah, gas leaks are scary.

Many instances of earthquake damage came to light before and with the hurricane. For instance, some friends' septic system was damaged in a way that became evident in a Thursday night storm. Thankfully, it was fixed before Irene hit on Saturday.

Other friends in Loudon County Maryland (80 miles west of DC) discovered that some critical piece in their well had sheared off from the well pipe.

And I've read accounts of people discovering the earthquake rendered their basements no longer waterproof.

Correction made.

Thanks-
Pete

I've had roof problems and learned a few things about tarping.

* I've seen people lay down tarps and staple them down. This simply doesn't work, as there's not enough support to hold them down in wind.

* I followed others by laying down the tarps and nailing (double-headed nails) strips of lath on top of the tarps to spread out the support. I put them about 4ft apart and all along the edges of the roof so the wind couldn't catch it.

* NEXT TIME! I'm laying down the tarps and holding them down with half-filled sandbags, and just nailing down the lath at the edges. Half-filled/tied sandbags are easy to carry and move around. They don't leave holes in the tarps, so if the tarps aren't left there too long (UV damage), they can be folded up and stashed for later use.

Sue

As a young teen I once helped my dad use rope to tie down a tarp to protect a roof with a hole. That, or sandbags, was how I was planning to secure one. It never occurred to me to nail it down.

Susan...if you have a small roof puncture and not loose shingles or tile, the spray foam insulation works pretty well... to expand and seal holes...in 04, red fuel cans and blue tarps were in short supply down here...

good idea to have a can of roof mastic, blue tarp and lath or firring strips...portable screw gun and deck screws

Has anyone tried that new (at least to me) spay rubber product advertized on TV Flex Seal ?

If it really works and will actually stick to a variety of surfaces, it might be a useful product to have on hand.

Pete

Don't apologize- I've never met someone who had my first name I liked. We're all... *thinks about what mods will allow* rude jerks. My hurricane would probably make Katrina look like a squirt gun.

Irene will go down in the history books regardless of whether it was a hurricane or a tropical storm when it swept into any given region. Although many folks may feel like Irene was a dud because so much attention and anticipation was put on NYC and then not a whole lot happened in the major metro areas, it was quite devastating to many other regions, like upstate New York, western Massachusetts, Conneticut, and Vermont. The devastation is still unfolding or being tallied even now. Watching the video from Vermont, it's humbling to see what damage can be done by a tropical storm. Of course, let's not forget about all the folks who have lost their lives.

There seem to be more than the usual number of articles wondering if things had been overhyped this time. I think this AP article is a well balanced piece that looks at many facets of the issue.

This seems like a useful article about the "hype" around Irene:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/arti...a5193b1252af0c5

It makes the crucial observation that much of the storm reporting was focused on New York City. When it turned out that Irene did not destroy the city, people were in a sense let down. The extensive damage Irene caused in other areas got relatively little attention.

There is always a degree of gambling involved in emergency preparation. Alas, "better safe than sorry" isn't always popular.

Da Bing

I don't recall normally seeing mention of so many communities cut off by floodwaters as I have in the aftermath of Irene, like in Vermont and the Catskills. Anyone else notice that? I'm curious if Irene really did isolate more communities than is typical, or if it's just a popular news topic this time around?

It looks like Irene's financial cost is living up to its billing, probably ranking in the top ten disasters in US history when all the costs are tallied. In Irene's case, the vast area that it affected contributes greatly to the final bill. Unfortunately, much of Irene's damage comes from flooding rather than wind damage, and many of the communities struck with historic floods typically do not have flood insurance, which is going to make recovery more difficult for these people. You can read a New York Times article about it here.

Flood insurance is cheap. Get it whether your mortgage company requires it or not or whether you are technically in a flood zone or not. Then step back after an event and let the windstorm insurance company and the flood insurer (feds?) fight about who pays for it instead of having each of them hammer you with exclusionary clauses.

Seriously, insurance is complicated. If the water damage is "wind blown" then the windstorm coverage kicks in. If the water damage is "percolating", then its excluded from the windstorm coverage and you have to look to a flood policy. If you have both, then you let them fight it out as to how the water damage occured. One of them is responsible.

Have you had the mains electricity power supply restored yet? It seems the numbers affected by power outages was on a huge scale. With perhaps up to 15 Million people being affected through out the tropical storm affected area. According to Business Week there were 8 million homes and businesses initially effected and as of Monday approximately 4+ Million homes and businesses still without power.

Makes me wonder what a Cat 3 or 4 would have done on a similar track.

http://newsblogged.com/tropical-stormhurricane-katia-projected-path

Another one to keep an eye on!!

Out local power company had an extended outage because they were not keeping up on tree trimming then a major ice store caused a lot of overhanging tree branches to knock down lines so everyone complained, they were in the news, etc.
So in the spring they came out and butchered everyones trees, cut out about 2/3 of the big tree that shaded our house, made a huge lopsided tree that looked terrible.
So its a catch 22, complain too much to the electric company and loose all your shade trees.

We lost our power 5:20 pm on Saturday. At that time, local winds were no more than about 35-40 mph, and then only in gusts. We got our power back about 7:30 pm last night. We also had sporadic outages of POTS and DSL which were out for the first 24 hours or so continually. I found out the the small substation serving our community was out of power, so the telephone company dragged in a portable generator and tried to keep it going (most of the time). As they didn't have anyone to tend it full time, a couple of times it ran out of gas, and service was out until someone could refill and start it again. But at least we had some service.

Cable TV was out until about 3 hours ago. If you had your internet through the cable, it was out also.

Cell phone service was out also. The local tower doesn't have any back-up power.

There are three roads that get you away from where we live; north, west and south. (To the east is the bay, and you need a boat.) At one point, all three roads were cut off by downed trees and/or wires. One road (northbound) was opened in a few hours. The other two were closed until about 1 pm yesterday. The difference was that if it is only a downed tree, the county could handle it by themselves, which they did. The others had downed trees wrapped in downed power & telcom cables. The police told me that if it were just telcom cables, the county would have cut away those without hesitation. But they cannot touch the tree when there are downed power cables, and they had to wait until the power company came to deal with their cables. Thus the long wait time for those 2 roads to open. The County police had to station an office full time at one intersection to keep traffic out. One LEO full time for almost 3 full days because the power company couldn't deal with a tree blocking one of the main roads into/out of Annapolis.

My automatic stand-by generator ran fine the whole time, keeping the critical circuits going, so, really, the lack of power was just an annoyance. The only scary part was when the POTS and cell phone was down, we lost access to 911; I had never considered that possibility and am now thinking what I can do. . .signal flares? flags? running down the street screaming "HELP" madly?

Walking around our community, about half of my neighbors had generators running, and some of those had cables strung to their neighbor.

And its early in the season and another one is brewing. Oh boy.

Hurricane Irene's winds were 70 miles per hour, enough to cause tree damage. The downed trees created broken power lines, electrified puddles, crushed automobiles, damaged homes, and a lot of flooding. Local news claims New Jersey and Vermont were the hardest hit eastern states. Many roads are now flooded so travel is a real pain. We had gone without power for four days some years ago, in July (a substation problem), so we lost all our food. This was an important lesson learned the hard way. This time, for Hurricane Irene, we were ready with our water making machine and our battery backup which can be recharged with a 90 watt solar panel. We also tied down anything that could become airborn and anchored our small metal tool shed. Many homes near rivers are now flooded, with people in shelters. The news reports about Paterson NJ, looters raided flooded homes while occupants are in shelters. We survived Hurricane Irene OK. The sump pump ran almost constantly, and we had many downed tree branches but fortunately no damage. Our preparations gave us much piece of mind.

I was going to saw WRT differentiating electric from phone lines, they usually share the same poles so if one is down the other probably is too and you never know if one is touching the other and even if you know the difference could still be touching a phone line thats been electrified by a power line, I wouldn't touch either.

Our local power company (a cooperative) is one of the few that I've seen that does a very good job of keeping lines clean. And luckily, they also happen to sub contract out alot of the work to a company that has competent employees. In cases like your tree, they ask the homeowner how they want it done: this much of the tree MUST go, you can go further to the point of cutting the whole thing down if you want. Shrubs that don't have a chance of growing high enough to interfere with the lines will be left, but if its a tree, and its in the right-of-way, its gone. They also pick everything up after they leave (free loads of mulch if you want it).

The other company in the area (SCE&G), just plain sucks IMO. They're the ones that leave trees that are already around the lines, if they bother to ever trim anything at all. Only thing I've seen them do lately is go and spray under the lines, so now everywhere you go, you see a bunch of dead brown trees and brush, and they have no plans to remove any of it.

I thought that this was an interesting article on how the NHC missed the mark, as far as wind speed is concerned, with Irene. However, they were 20% better than average on predicting the storm track, and that's an immensely critical thing to know as well.

Anyway, I think it's important to read about it and be aware of forecasting misses like this so that we don't simply become completely cynical about all forecasts in the future.

How Irene's forecast missed the mark and why it could happen again

Has anyone read anything, looking back, about how the evacuation in NYC worked out, in particular, the evacuation of the hospitals and nursing homes? Personally, I thought it was one of the more intriguing stories in the days before Irene hit the NY area.

As far as I am aware, none of these patients died or were injured further as a result of the evacuation, which is amazing if that's true.

The only thing I was able to find afterwards was an article mentioning the billing nightmare that the evacuation caused over who pays for what.

There seems to be a wide discrepancy over the numbers who lost electrical power during the tropical storm.



http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news...-irene/6288694/

compared with


http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/09/02/irene.aftermath/index.html

So how many are still without grid power now getting on for a week? Are there still over 1 million people still affected with no electrical power 1 week in? (assuming 1.5-2 actual people per customer)

It doesn't look to good if there really was a black start electrical grid requirement for something like a Carrington solar storm event or even a more substantial hurricane as Irene was barely a tropical storm when it passed over New York.

Maybe there are just still so many without power still that we haven't yet heard the full chorus of anger for being cut off for so long via the interweb.

Question;

Rather than have a vastly expensive state internal security (DHS) and emergency response organisation (FEMA), would it not be more sensible in just making infrastructure such as Electrical grid generation and transmission supply simply more resilient?

FWIW, our local power company reports 11,304 customers still out as of 8:20 am this morning. This is what remains of their total of 750,204 outages since the storm began. Last public statement they made had almost everyone to be back by Friday night, with "a few" remaining on Saturday.

Under the heading of credit where it is due, they have a web page where you can keep track of the numbers:
http://www.bge.com/customerservice/stormsoutages/currentoutages/Pages/default.aspx

UK Daily Mail article on an unprepared Brit dealing with the Hurricane, er Tropical storm, er Gale Irene (as Sharon Churcher described the storm) on how to Survive in the days after (well just about).

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...d-country-.html

What we're forgetting here of course is that the entitlement brigade do see it as survival when blow drying the hair or ironing the Calvin Kleins and the petrol for the gennie runs out.

I think the point she is saying in a whiny "why me" way is that she wasn't in Haiti, she was on the outskirts of NYC and it wasn't even a proper hurricane, just a gale.

S*** happens, even in NY, deal with it. I remember ice storms back in the '50's -- yeah, dating myself.

I suspect there are many people in the area hit by Irene who would feel very lucky to have a "...petrol-fed generator..." available.

I recall being surprised ahwile back at reading a FEMA blurb on disaster preparaitions that suggested people have a "manual can opener". I should know better by now, but it still boggles my mind that people get so dependent on electical conveniences that they can't even open a can when the power goes off.

We don't have an electric can opener. I have three very nice manual openers though.

Same with coffee -- no electric drip coffee maker, I use a Melitta 6-Cup Manual Coffeemaker. If I can boil water with an electric stove (at home in the kitchen), a propane camp stove, a Svea 123 or a circle of rocks with an open fire, I can make a good cup of coffee -- or Chai/Tea.

Many modern "conveniences" are a trap.

I just hope my Kindle has a full charge

The importance of a good cup of coffee is not to be underestimated!

This is an interesting point though as it would appear that the electrical grid supply in the USA is done on the cheap and not very resilient to gale force winds as has been recently discovered. I have even discovered that the multitude of pole transformers i.e. the last transformer before the residence (7,200 volts into the 220-240-120 volts) actually has in many circumstances aluminium windings to save on cost.

http://www.temcotransformer.com/poletransformer.html



In the UK the last transformer is ground based usually behind a brick surrounding wall or building with the 240V 3 phase distribution (1 phase per residence) cables mostly being buried. Here is an unusual Transformer that doesn't have a protective wall structure.

This is not an easily solved problem, but rather than just repair the poles and pole transformers etc, perhaps over time the infrastructure needs heavy investment for underground cables or these week long outages will just re-occur with the next kite flying weather day.

No, it's just very old.

The 'cheap' are the people who refuse to replace our grid until it's absolutely, positively necessary. Maybe they're waiting for an alien EMP attack.

Sue

The burying of high voltage, high capacity lines is a costly busines, therefore these are normally overhead both in the UK and in the USA.
Local distribution at voltages of a few thousand volts is more readily buried. Here in the UK most local distribution is at 11,000 volts, buried in all but rural areas.
Pole mounted transformers in rural areas reduce the voltage to 240/415 for use by isolated buildings or small groups of buildings.
In built up areas, the 11,000 volts is reduced to 240/415 by large transformers each serving many customers. The cables are normally buried in built up areas.
The transformers are normally located at ground level in small buildings erected for the purpose, these are immune to flooding unless it is very deep. In city centers the transformers are often in basements and therefore vulnerable to flooding.

Bad weather frequently causes outages in remote or rural areas as the wind brings down the lines.
Weather induced outages in urban areas are very rare in the UK.

Even urban areas might in theory be vulnerable to outages caused by weather damage to the overhead high voltage grid lines. In practice it is seldom a problem in the UK.

Most power outages in urban areas are caused by excavations damaging cables, or by the flooding of transformer substations when these are underground.

The USA system with more pole mounted equipment is vulnerable to high winds and impact by vehicles, but less vulnerable to flooding.
Failures of pole mounted equipment are normally obvious and repairs easily arranged.
Faults in underground cables are less readily located and may require extensive excavations to repair.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/43823

It would seem that the last 2 nodes on the grid network, i.e. the local 7200 Volt to 220/120V transmission distribution on 50 year old wooden poles are the least of the problem.

The idea of a free market in electrical energy supply and a unified robust electrical grid transmission network are somewhat mutually exclusive.


Any idea when and where that tipping point comes? Hopefully it won't be with Hurrican Katia sometime next week if the Canadian track forecast is a possibility (similar to the 38 Long Island express track). A large area storm with gale force winds (Irene) for the most part saw 8+ Million customers without power last week. Or will it be a Carrington solar storm event leaving 300+ million without power for months on end together with a few melted down nuclear Fukishima style reactors be the tipping point for consumer anger and frustration.