That might be the case, but even defining what would be considered 'Reliable' to the public doesn't really matter anyway. Would the authorities tell anyone of their suspicions that a there was a 60% chance of a 7+ earthquake within a 200 mile by 10 mile fault area in the next 5 weeks be an acceptable criteria . Where does the threshold lie before informing the Public of the potential threat? esp when you have organisations such as the USGS publically stating categorically that Earthquakes cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy (but still have yet to define the accuracy threshold)

What is the point of the USGS's work on Earthquake monitoring if this is the case. Their work should have been wound up years ago.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6wXT0IELww @9:18