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#218801 - 03/11/11 10:48 PM Earthquake 8.9 -- Early guesses
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
This is all third hand, speculation and out right guesses

1. Devastation. I suspect that the early estimates for loss of life are off by a factor of ten
2. Very little communication in or out. Phone lines and cell service out for several days.
3. Japan is very well prepared for this; teams, supplies and systems in place.
4. That being said this will be a major challenge
5. The first thing that happens outside the area of destruction? You wait. Wait for info, wait to contact people affected, wait to be deployed. Where I used to live the first thing snowplow drivers did when there was news of a major storm approaching? Take a nap. might not be bad advice.

Teacher

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#218805 - 03/11/11 11:54 PM Re: Earthquake 8.9 -- Early guesses [Re: TeacherRO]
ireckon Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/01/10
Posts: 1629
Loc: Northern California
I agree with you regarding communication. I think I know more about what's going on there than do some people in Japan! I have a friend in Japan who I contacted through Facebook. He told me everything is fine and he's busy working. I don't think he understands what's going on around him in other parts of Japan.
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#218808 - 03/12/11 12:58 AM Re: Earthquake 8.9 -- Early guesses [Re: ireckon]
Richlacal Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/11/10
Posts: 778
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
I'm wondering what Hiker Jim,Has to say regarding this Quake,His family(inlaws) live there,& As I recall He was just there a month ago,I hope All is well for his Family!

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#218818 - 03/12/11 04:11 AM Re: Earthquake 8.9 -- Early guesses [Re: TeacherRO]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
This is all third hand, speculation and out right guesses

1. Devastation. I suspect that the early estimates for loss of life are off by a factor of ten
2. Very little communication in or out. Phone lines and cell service out for several days.
3. Japan is very well prepared for this; teams, supplies and systems in place.
4. That being said this will be a major challenge
5. The first thing that happens outside the area of destruction? You wait. Wait for info, wait to contact people affected, wait to be deployed. Where I used to live the first thing snowplow drivers did when there was news of a major storm approaching? Take a nap. might not be bad advice.

Teacher


The Japanese have invested huge amounts of resources into emergency services, hardening, and response coordination. Communications are seen by them, quite rightly, as even more vital than training and responders simply because if you can't figure out who needs what, and what resources remain, you can't even begin to cope.

The Japanese warning system is a decade more advanced than anything we have in the US. Their early detection systems gave a full minute of warning. This allowed bullet trains to start to come to a safe stop, allowed assembly lines and industrial plants to be shut down in an organized manner, and is being credited with saving many lives.

Japanese building codes are quite strict in terms of earthquake resistance. The building may not, especially in such a large quake, remain usable but the buildings are designed not to collapse. People get a chance to get out. I fully believe that if this happened in the US we would be seeing far worse devastation. Even California building codes are but a shadow of the Japanese version.

There is little debate that the Japanese are most disaster aware and prepared society on the planet. That said this is a very strong quake and nothing made by man is immune to such forces. And word is there may have been another farther north.

I fear that the wrong lesson may be learned. That when the butcher's bill is paid it will be surprisingly light for the forces involved and that other, less organized and prepared societies, will slack off in their efforts.

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#220650 - 03/31/11 07:36 PM Re: Earthquake 8.9 -- Early guesses [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
Toll: 11,000 dead. 16,000 still missing

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#222126 - 04/22/11 03:33 PM Re: Earthquake 8.9 -- Early guesses [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
Odd to see this is continuing and developing...

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#222141 - 04/22/11 05:50 PM Re: Earthquake 8.9 -- Early guesses [Re: TeacherRO]
ireckon Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/01/10
Posts: 1629
Loc: Northern California
What's very odd to me is my group of friends who live in Japan acting like nothing bad is happening. I'm all for looking to the bright side. However, I can't even get an honest dialogue going with what's going on over there. One friend enjoys doing things like posting pics of Hanami on his Facebook account, and he acts like nothing happened. It seems like people there (my friends anyway) are in some sort zombie state that doesn't allow them to tell it like it is.

You said 11,000 dead and 16,000 missing on 3/31/11. Is that correct???
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If you're reading this, it's too late.

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#222180 - 04/23/11 01:18 AM Re: Earthquake 8.9 -- Early guesses [Re: ireckon]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
Originally Posted By: ireckon
However, I can't even get an honest dialogue going with what's going on over there. One friend enjoys doing things like posting pics of Hanami on his Facebook account, and he acts like nothing happened. It seems like people there (my friends anyway) are in some sort zombie state that doesn't allow them to tell it like it is.


There isn't a whole lot to talk about. They are picking up, cleaning up, rebuilding as they can. A popular Japanese view is to keep moving and stay in the moment instead of dwelling on and clinging to the event. For them there isn't much difference between 11,000, or 11,001 or 12,000 dead. Most every family has either lost someone, or they know someone who was lost. Japan is in many ways a very small nation.

Even the situation at the F-D nuclear plant isn't of much interest to many Japanese outside the direct area. Near the plant it bears listening for major developments but the general view is that what can be done is being done and they have rebuilding of entire towns to work on and people who need help. Americans seem to more freaked out and sensitive to every small detail and report than most Japanese.

What needs to be done is to restore some sense of order, to repair and rebuild their communities as quickly as possible, and to get past the losses. There will be time to write the history and mourn later.

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