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#219245 - 03/15/11 02:27 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: hikermor]
MostlyHarmless Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 06/03/09
Posts: 982
Loc: Norway
Originally Posted By: hikermor
... as MF points out, it doesn't seem to happen in real life disasters. Could it be that people band together, cooperate, and assist one another?


Yes, at least according to Rebecca Solnit. And the effect lasts about 6 week.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/21/AR2009082101111.html


And no, that effect does not exclude looting or robbing from happening. Neither does it exclude people from being ill tempered, sleep deprived, full of anxiety or aggressive.

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#219249 - 03/15/11 02:40 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: dweste]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1372
Here are my thoughts ...

1. Other than for legal authorities, who do you stop for?

Keep in mind that in a disaster zone you may be facing National Guard troops. If you are unlucky you may bump into people working for Blackwater - or whatever they call themselves now. And you certainly can bump into the local police - who may be tired and nervous. The outcome depends on the rules of engagement (ROE) that have been given to these people. But the general ROE is that they may try to arrest or shoot anyone carrying a weapon in their hands, or a weapon that is visible. So if you have a gun for protection, you better keep it hidden when you bump into the authorities. Other than that, you STOP if the chance of getting shot outweighs the chance that you can escape or defend yourself. It's going to be a gut decision.

2. What is your response to those who want what you have?

A tough question. It's hard to know where to draw the line between compassion and survival. I don't think there's any clear guideline. You are going to have to make your own personal call. Just remember - that desperate person who needs some food or water may also have really valuable info that they can tell you in an emergency. Or maybe not. You just don't know.

3. What protocol do you follow with those who want to join you?

I would be skeptical about taking them along, unless it was kids. If I came across young kids who had no means of providing for themselves, I would try to find a way to help them. But if your objective is to walk a long way across a devastated city, most tag-alongs are going to slow you down. Most Americans are not good at walking these days. Watch the movie "The Book of Eli" with Denzel Washington. He gets into a moral dilemma when he decides to march onwards, even though terrible things are happening around him. Again - no easy answers.

4. Where do you draw the line between looting and foraging for a resource you decide you need?

I would definitely forage for basics ... firewood, clean water, food. Many other people will be doing the same. I draw the line if it comes to taking their possessions by force - I would not do that. And I would try to prevent them from doing the same. But you have to use common sense. If you are overwhelmed, then give up your stuff. Besides, if you are really good at foraging, you can find more stuff. Most Americans will not have advanced survival skills. There aren't many Bear Grylls out there.

I don't think things are going to get apocalyptic in our big cities, unless we have earthquakes and tsunami's on really big scales (magnitude 9 and bigger). In that case, some of the city could be destroyed by fire. Try to remember that those other dirty, miserable human beings are indeed people, and some of them possess some really valuable skills. It's better to work together, if we can. In the end, your course of action will be decided by your faith, your conscience, and your purpose in life.

other Pete


Edited by Pete (03/15/11 02:41 PM)

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#219251 - 03/15/11 02:46 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: dweste]
Eric Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/09/06
Posts: 323
Loc: Iowa
I'll answer first, then comment.

1. Other than for legal authorities, who do you stop for? Anyone who looks like they need some assistance, assuming I can provide it. Try to avoid looters and keep moving otherwise.

2. What is your response to those who want what you have? Depends on how they approach it. If they are in need of help, try and help. If they are physically ok but "entitled" (read that as looking for someone else to fix things) too bad, you can work for it. If they are armed and threatening (highly unlikely around here)- be my guest, I just want out of here.

3. What protocol do you follow with those who want to join you? We are going that a way - come along. If able bodied, carry your share of the load. Supplies allocated as follows - those doing most the work get first share, children and infirm next, hangers on last if they get anything.

4. Where do you draw the line between looting and foraging for a resource you decide you need? Looting is for profit, foraging is for survival. Ask when possible. If taking "abandoned" items make sure you keep track to reimburse later if possible.

Now the commentary - Location must really impact responses. I can't imagine responding as some have but circumstances vary a lot. Around here the primary drive would be to help our "neighbors" even as we bugged out. Of course there will be exceptions. If the city you live in/near really has you thinking that the best responses are evaluated by caliber and/or range, maybe you need some pre-disaster planning, like finding a better community.

-Eric


Edited by Eric (03/15/11 02:48 PM)
_________________________
You are never beaten until you admit it. - - General George S. Patton


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#219253 - 03/15/11 02:50 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: dweste]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 3842
Loc: USA
1. Other than for legal authorities, who do you stop for?

This has to be on a case-by-case basis. I'd aim to avoid confrontations and large groups. If the threat is not immediate, I'll help those I can.

2. What is your response to those who want what you have?

There's a huge difference between, "Mister, can you spare me a drink of water?" and "Give me all your stuff and I'll take the women, too."

3. What protocol do you follow with those who want to join you?

Well-equipped friendlies? Sure. Looters? No. How to tell? Potentially very difficult.

4. Where do you draw the line between looting and foraging for a resource you decide you need?

Are people defending it? Then it's looting.

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#219260 - 03/15/11 04:17 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: dweste]
Lono Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 10/19/06
Posts: 1013
Loc: Pacific NW, USA
Sigh. Some of you, I just don't know. Read this: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15elderly.html?_r=1&hp

“I saw the ugly side of people, and then I saw the good side,” he said. “Some people only thought of themselves. Others stopped to help.”

Disasters have an end, every one of them, and that right soon - and we should remember those who let their good sides show, and those that don't. Whatever your bugout plans, please remember that.

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#219264 - 03/15/11 05:12 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: dweste]
dweste Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/16/08
Posts: 2463
Loc: Central California
I have decided bug-out is necessary for survival. My focus is on getting myself and loved ones through town to a known place of shelter and re-supply. At most the trip will take a couple days walking.

First I will decide what I need to survive a couple days of walking and customize what I choose to carry to provide those things and not present an obvious target for robbery or worse. If possible I will not use backpacks or other "I have goodies for you" means of carry. I will not take my fully equipped BOB.

I know from the Rule of Threes that I will need air, shelter, and water to get through the journey. I know I will want but not absolutely need food.

Several N95 masks and bandanas are probably the best I am going to be able to do about air, together with whatever asthma and allergy meds my group needs. These will be spread many places throughout clothing and gear - not in a centralized first aid kit.

Shelter needs will heavily depend on weather, but will be primarily met by layered clothing. Used, even tattered, clothing masking underlayers; new stuff will be camoed with a few strategic tears, some felt pen markings, etcetera, to make them appear undesireable. A number of trash bags will be worn and distributed several places throughout clothing and gear.

Small bottles of water will be distributed throughout clothing and gear. No large or fancy water containers to attract the eye.

Small bars of food and candy will be distributed throughout clothing and gear.

Trade goods and "tribute" in the form of water and candy will be in the top, outermost layer of clothes and gear, ready to be given away.

Everyone will carry a used second pair of shoes / boots. Everyone will carry several pair of used socks distributed throughout clothing and gear.

We will travel by day and try to blend in with others moving around us.

1. Other than for legal authorities, who do you stop for?

Only briefly for those in need of aid to preserve life or limb.

2. What is your response to those who want what you have?

Verbal defense. If necessary, reluctant and piecemeal give away tof trade and tribute goods, and if that is not enough, retreat while shedding up to all your stuff. You win by surviving to get out of town not having the most stuff when you get there.

3. What protocol do you follow with those who want to join you?

Decide which of your loved ones you would risk for the stranger's possible safety. Prepare lies: oh, we are only going a couple of blocks to the park; as soon as we get to --- we will guide help back; this is our second trip, wait right here you can be part of the next group; etcetera. If you must add others to the group, try to keep the additions self-supporting overall, that is, if you add kids or disabled then add others to care for them. If you make the hard choice to refuse, console yourself: as soon as your loved ones are safe, you can return and be part of the effort to aid everyone else.

4. Where do you draw the line between looting and foraging for a resource you decide you need?

Unless things go wrong you have what you need to get out of town, so take nothing. If unexpected need arises, then take just what you need to survive the trip out of town.


Edited by dweste (03/15/11 05:16 PM)

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#219267 - 03/15/11 05:19 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: Lono]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1372
Lono ... good response. Sooner or later a disaster will be over, but we will have to live with our conscience for the rest of our lives.

That being said ... there are some scenario's where a person may feel obligated to cross a devastated city - without stopping too much. Let's look at them, because they deserve consideration.

1. Many people in large cities drive a long commute to work each day. They may easily live 50-100 miles from their work location, and they may drive a personal auto or travel daily in a van pool. What exactly are these people going to do - if their city gets devastated? Most likely they will feel a compelling need to get home quickly ... because they are worried about their loved ones. But also quite likely - local roads may be jammed by debris and traffic jams. So they can't drive. Or alternatively, they start driving and get trapped in traffic, then abandon their vehicle and walk. A lot of Americans would find this process to be very SCARY, esp. once they are out of the comfort zone of their personal car.

As I pointed out earlier, most Americans are not good at walking, and their ability to survive in the street is not great. I have actually encouraged people where i work to put a spare rucksack in their office, along with some sneakers, a warm jacket, a bottle of water and a granola bar. Keep in mind that I live in L.A. To the best of my knowledge, not a single person has heeded this advice.

2. Some people may be visiting a city as tourists, or they may be residents of a neighboring town or state. They may not feel a lot of obligation to the city where they are staying, and they may just want to "get the heck out of dodge". For reasons that i will explain in my next post, there may be many people in Los Angeles who feel that way after the Big Earthquake (!), including a lot of residents. These people may also be tempted to exit the city as promptly as possible. But in reality this means crossing a lot of unknown nighborhoods, some disaster scenario's (fires and demolished buildings), and moving through crowds of scared people.

Geeting out of a major disaster zone, such as Los Angeles after the Big One, is not a trivial undertaking.

other Pete


Edited by Pete (03/15/11 05:32 PM)

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#219272 - 03/15/11 05:32 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: dweste]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1372
OK ... some food for thought.

I have said several times that I live in Los Angeles. I actually work in a company with a large number of engineers and technical people. These people are intelligent, and most have advanced degrees. Keep that in mind as you digest the following info.

This morning I asked three people the following questions: "Do you have emergency water at home?", "What do you think will happen in L.A. if there is a major quake like Japan?".

ANSWERS:

1. NONE of the people I talked to have put aside any spare water in their house. Not even a little bit. The only water they've got right now is what's in their cupboards from normal shopping, plus any water they could scavenge from the toilet (reservoir) or the hot water heater. Furthermore, they were all of the opinion that their neighbors also did not have any significant water put away for long-term emergency use.

2. The general opinion was that people in L.A. are depending on outside help to come pretty quickly after a quake. Maybe within a day or two. I have pointed out to my co-workers that the chance of any significant outside help is probably minmal for at least a week, and maybe longer. It is simply impossible for the US authorities to get supplies to the greater population of the Los Angeles basin. That being said ... the opinion of my co-workers is that the city will degenerate into a larger version of the Watts riots witihn 2-3 days after a major quake. I agree with them. There will be shooting, looting, and an "every man for himself" scenario in some (maybe many) parts of this city. This scenario will not play out under all circumstances, but could be very real after a HUGE quake. I expect civil unrest from Day #3 - Day #7 after a major quake, until the National Guard and police can calm things down.

So there exist reasons why some people inside the city may want to get the heck out of dodge immediately after a major quake. There is a short window of opportunity of a couple of days - when people are frightened and disrupted, but not yet overtly hostile. I expect to see the best and worst of human nature. Incidentally, I will probably remain in the city with my family.

other Pete


Edited by Pete (03/15/11 05:38 PM)

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#219275 - 03/15/11 05:49 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: dweste]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
I'll use Tokyo as it is right now as my example. I don't know the country, I don't know the language. I don't know where anything is. All the Japanese people I've met in my life have always been helpful and polite.

1. Other than for legal authorities, who do you stop for?

I would assume that all contacts should be based on an individual basis. If someone needs help and I can provide it, I will attempt to do so. I will avoid anyone who seems to be looking for trouble. Sometimes it may be hard to tell the difference.

2. What is your response to those who want what you have?

Outright theft in Japan isn't all that likely, from what I understand. Might run into other problems with people from other countries, like the U.S. I will object.

3. What protocol do you follow with those who want to join you?

Movement is almost certainly slow and strewn with obstacles, large and small. Traveling with a group who are headed for the same destination can be a very good thing. It is very hard for one or two people to do it all themselves. If you are traveling with local people, they may know of things that can be extremely helpful. Out of a group of people, several small groups can make forays in different directions to find viable trails or food or water, then report back to the group.

4. Where do you draw the line between looting and foraging for a resource you decide you need?

Food, water, shelter, medical supplies fall under foraging. Resalable articles would/should be considered looting.

I always tend to shake my head at these one-man Rambo scenarios. In a widespread disaster, you're going to need help, whether you like it or not. And you will be able to provide help, like it or not. I tend to wonder about people who are perfectly happy kicking babies and sick/injured people out of their path as they tromp along in their Storm Trooper mindset.

"Yes, there is a huge unbroken tank of fresh water here, but he didn't seem to want to hear anything we had to say, so we just let him continue on his way."

Dumb. Really, really dumb!

Sue

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#219278 - 03/15/11 06:06 PM Re: Bug out through a devastated city [Re: Pete]
Ann Offline
Newbie

Registered: 01/04/11
Posts: 42
Loc: Western Washington
Having never been in this situation, my reply is based on what I currently think I'd do if I found myself in that situation.

1. Other than for legal authorities, who do you stop for?

As long as slowing down doesn't significantly endanger my life, I think I'd stop for anyone I'm able to help. And for those I cannot I'd like to think I'd stop for a moment to offer a word of comfort, perhaps get their name and a short message they'd like loved ones to receive, write it down and let them know I'll pass it on when I get the chance. In such a situation it's really the least I could do, and I think would also help with morale knowing that I'm at least making a difference for someone in the wake of such utter devastation.

2. What is your response to those who want what you have?

You know, I honestly don't know. If I have enough for everyone there's no problem, if sharing what I have would cause me serious problems then my thoughts range from willing martyrdom to hardened survival, and everything in-between.

3. What protocol do you follow with those who want to join you?

If we can help each other, then lets do it.

4. Where do you draw the line between looting and foraging for a resource you decide you need?

Looting is sneaky and often unnecessary, foraging a resource is done honorably and only for what's truly needed. If the owner of the items is around and has refused to give permission to take anything, then taking it anyway is looting. If the owner is not around to say either way then quickly checking around to see if the items are truly abandoned is an honorable thing to do, and if they are to leave a note with your name and say what you have taken, explain why it is needed, apologize for doing so without permission and write that you intend to reimburse completely if/when possible. As a bonus to this method whoever finds your note will put your name on record, and I think it might warm people's hearts to see someone striving to do the right thing in the midst of such desperation.

I write this from the perspective that the people around me would take priority over finding out whether or not my family's okay, and--to some extent at least--would even take priority over myself. While I'd strongly want to be reunited with family ASAP, I don't see how it does anyone much good for me to be so fixated on that as to ignore the people around me, after all, they have families too, and if I can't be there for my own family and friends the least I can do is be there for someone else's. I think it would become important to learn "triage" of who you can help, who you can't, when to put others above yourself and when to put yourself above others for the greatest net benefit.

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