OK ... some food for thought.

I have said several times that I live in Los Angeles. I actually work in a company with a large number of engineers and technical people. These people are intelligent, and most have advanced degrees. Keep that in mind as you digest the following info.

This morning I asked three people the following questions: "Do you have emergency water at home?", "What do you think will happen in L.A. if there is a major quake like Japan?".

ANSWERS:

1. NONE of the people I talked to have put aside any spare water in their house. Not even a little bit. The only water they've got right now is what's in their cupboards from normal shopping, plus any water they could scavenge from the toilet (reservoir) or the hot water heater. Furthermore, they were all of the opinion that their neighbors also did not have any significant water put away for long-term emergency use.

2. The general opinion was that people in L.A. are depending on outside help to come pretty quickly after a quake. Maybe within a day or two. I have pointed out to my co-workers that the chance of any significant outside help is probably minmal for at least a week, and maybe longer. It is simply impossible for the US authorities to get supplies to the greater population of the Los Angeles basin. That being said ... the opinion of my co-workers is that the city will degenerate into a larger version of the Watts riots witihn 2-3 days after a major quake. I agree with them. There will be shooting, looting, and an "every man for himself" scenario in some (maybe many) parts of this city. This scenario will not play out under all circumstances, but could be very real after a HUGE quake. I expect civil unrest from Day #3 - Day #7 after a major quake, until the National Guard and police can calm things down.

So there exist reasons why some people inside the city may want to get the heck out of dodge immediately after a major quake. There is a short window of opportunity of a couple of days - when people are frightened and disrupted, but not yet overtly hostile. I expect to see the best and worst of human nature. Incidentally, I will probably remain in the city with my family.

other Pete