It really depends on where you live. Not every town has early warning systems nor tall enough buildings...even in Japan. If you have only 10 minutes warning, it is all but impossible to outrun an tsunami which is coming for you at hundreds of miles per hour.

http://www.realnewsreporter.com/?p=843



The problem is do you take the warnings seriously? Are you prepared or are you paranoid? (rhetorical question of course). Even the paranoids are sometimes correct and being correct on the low probability occasion that you are correct could just save you life, but it would be a pretty miserable existence on the balance of things.



I heard today from a scientist from the USGS who was commenting on the 8.9-9.0 Japanese earthquake who said that they thought that the earlier 7.1 earthquake was the main event but was then shown to just be the pre shock (d'oh!). He was then asked if another 8.9-9.0+ could occur and dismissed this out of hand even though five minutes earlier he stated categorically that you cannot predict earthquakes.

> The problem is do you take the warnings seriously?

Well, I don't think it's a 'problem,' and the answer is "no." :-> Nobody predicted this earthquake or any other. Some people have been lucky in guessing that one would occur, but they've also guessed wrong much more often. You're right, accepting all the predictions would lead to a miserable life, and you still wouldn't know when the big one was actually coming.

The P-wave monitoring system gave the Japanese a full minute warning and allowed hundreds of bullet trains to stop, industrial and chemical plants to stop processes in an orderly fashion, for power systems to be shut down. It wasn't enough time for everything to be secured but it saved thousands of lives and billions in damage.

Their Tsunami warning system gave the affected area about eleven minutes warning. For thousands that heeded the warning, and were close enough to safety to make it, that eleven minutes of warning was the difference between life and death.

I was impressed with the tsunami warning system in Japan - at least for the towns where it did work. This video shows it clearly in action ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2uJN3Z1ryck

This warning system saved a LOT of lives. However, you not only need to have the warning system in place, you also need citizens who beleive it and act immediately.

RE The BIG ONE In L.A.: I have been doing a lot of fact checking and background research. The best logic I can come up with today is the following ... the southern section of the San Andreas is probably at highest risk. That puts Los Angeles & Palm Springs directly in the crosshairs. The most likely timing is sometime in the next 4-5 years, and highly likely within the next 20 years. That is based on earthquake frequencies. There is no agreement at all on the possible size of the quake. But I think it is overly optimisitic to conclude that it won't be bigger than an 8.0. A lot of people around here seem to believe that, but I remain unconvinced. My main concern is that there have been several huge quakes over the last 6-7 years on different sides of the Pacific Plate (tectonic plate). It seems entirely plausible that we could experience something quite similar in So. California. The only redeeming feature is that our fault line is on land and it is not a subduction zone (it is a strike-slip fault line). So the chances of a huge tsunami are reduced, but I can't rule it out.

The probable location for a big tsunami on the West Coast is in Oregon or Washington State, and also in Alaska. They have major fault lines that are subduction zones located under the ocean, and relatively close to the coast. Those are the cities that need to implement a Japan-style tsunami system. But will they?

other Pete

Don't forget Puente Hills under LA. That's a relatively recently discovered fault. No early warning system for that one because it's too close to us.

Also,Don't forget The Inglewood-Newport Fault,Stretches from Culver City to Newport Beach on into The Ocean,Actually I'd heard it extends into Century City,but The Fault is Not visible,beyond Culver city.It is a Right Reverse Slip Fault,It was responsible for The LongBeach Quake in 1935,of which had the 2nd highest death toll in California History!Many folks think it was responsible for The Baldwin Hills Dam Disaster of 1964!It's been Mildly Active up to '09 with a few 4.5'ers!

I was on Santa Rosa Island, doing some volunteer work for Channel Islands National Park, when the quake struck. The next day we got the tsunami prediction which indicated a two to three foot wave arriving at the island about 8:15 AM. At that time we were along the south coast of the island at an elevation of about fifty feet, with the ability to get much higher very quickly, if necessary. We saw nothing out of the ordinary, the elephant seals on the beach didn't even rouse themselves, but it was great to have the info from the tsunami warning center. It allowed us to get in a normal work day.

Interestingly, I understand the funds for the Tsunami Warning Center have been cut in current congressional action. Doesn't sound like a good idea to me.

I think Lucy Jones, USGS, has the best take. She said she would be happy to live in Seattle and wouldn't be "Sleepless in Seattle," but would be "Sentient in Seattle." She has forgotten more about earthquakes than I will ever know, and I am comfortable with her conclusions.

Just a point of info. SoCal is riddled with faults (many of which are geological in nature) and quite a few of them are submerged. In 1812, one of them in the Santa Barbara Channel let go, triggering a tsunami which flooded Santa Barbara up to the steps of the mission. Coastal landslides, unrelated to earthquakes, can generate big waves that have been able to sink fairly large vessels at anchor in the islands. There is no substitute for advance, thoughtful, preparation.