Due to recent events the subject of earthquakes has been on my mind, and Lono's post here set me to thinking if there would be any way to know that the expected "big one" might be around the corner, and so to set yourself in a good place for it beforehand.

Now I know there's no sure way of predicting earthquakes (yet!), and I have read this ETS thread that includes the subject. What I'm wondering is, if foreshocks are common before most major earthquakes, then would it make sense for people living in the area of an anticipated big one to do a mini bug out to, say, a wide open field or something whenever there's a minor quake felt? It wouldn't work in California, of course, and most or all would end up just being surprise drills, and I know that foreshocks can come months beforehand. So maybe not. But then again if we know the big one is coming, and if there was some sort of statistical time window within which most foreshocks operated before a major quake.....hmm, dunno. Just wondering.

The second thought I had was to have a plan to do the same when a pet is exhibiting a significant unexplained change in behavior over the course of several days. Again, "false alarms" would probably happen, but if there's a chance, and a person doesn't mind unplanned drills, then would anyone consider it?

Part of where this is coming from for me is that I have an anecdotal story on the matter. As a teenager I had a pet rat that I was quite close to (I'm sure you can see where this is going). I think I had had it for over a year when one day I noticed it was not interested in playing, in fact, I couldn't coax it to poke its head out from under its "nest" at all. It wasn't even tempted by its favorite foods. When I brought it out, instead of exploring and being affectionate it would immediately try to hide. I could not interest it in anything; it seemed very scared.

The next day things were the same, and the next and the next. Like any responsible person with a pet I was becoming worried and observed it carefully. As far as I could tell it was not eating at all, and would only come out of hiding for a very brief time to drink some water before burrowing into hiding again. Presently I decided something must be very wrong and asked my dad if we could take it to the vet. My dad stalled a bit, and as the days went on I became more persistent until he finally agreed that I could call in.

The next day the Nisqually earthquake hit my area.

To the best of my memory the rat had been exhibiting this behavior on a constant basis for around 2 weeks leading up to the quake. The change in behavior is not the kind of thing that could have been missed, and gave plenty of advance warning. Once the aftershocks and everything had passed my rat returned to normal behavior.

But that's not all. Some time later, I seems like it must have been about a year or less, my rat began exhibiting the exact same change in behavior. I went and told my family, "there's going to be another earthquake." They believed me enough to take a few precautions with some heirloom items, and I made my own preparations. I actually have a dated journal entry saying that there would be another earthquake in my area soon. And about a week later it happened, I think it was a 4 or something like that, maybe a 5, I wish I could find the info on it again to say for sure. In any case it was just barely big enough to make the news and for most people to feel it.

After that I decided the next time it happens I'd be calling news stations and such to inform them of the prediction, but rats don't live very long and that obviously never happened. Still, it makes me wonder if that might actually be a viable way to get advanced warning of larger earthquakes and leave the area before it happens, take an impromptu vacation or something.

This is all just some thinking aloud. I'm not currently in a position to do any of these things, but I was wondering what you all thought of these ideas.

Many people in earthquake country do absolutely nothing, while some of us try to take reasonable precautions against what is essentially an unpredictable event. It makes sense to protect your heirloom items and keep prybars and shutoff tools close at hand, ready to use. Don't forget to bolt down your water heater, and keep your gas tank filled. Then get on with life.

I suppose I actually do practice mini bug outs, because I am hiking, backpacking, or bike touring as much as possible. Now I can add another justification. It seems to be working - I was out of town (and the house) for both Northridge (1994) and Loma Prieta (1989). Maybe my habits are as good as a rat's in predicting quakes. After all, there are people who see a lot of other similarities....

I know there are a lot of commonsense overall precautions, but I was actually referring to the more immediate response to when a major disaster might be expected to hit your area, for example with hurricane preparedness there is the long-term, 'It'll happen someday" preps such as WaterBOB and a plan for covering the windows, and there's the "It's coming" preps such as actually filling up the WaterBOB and covering your windows, evacuating, and whatnot. I understand that with earthquakes the "It'll happen someday" preps are all that most people do. I'm just wondering if there might be some "Its coming" preps, i.e., if you lived in Seattle and had a pet rat that was exhibiting this very distinct behavioral change for several days on end non-stop, you might consider that now is a good time to spend a week or two backpacking out of state.

A less disruptive way to heed predictions would be to have an RV in the driveway or elsewhere on your property. Some people have enormous houses that take up most of the lot but many could safely have an RV in the driveway or backyard and not have to worry about the house collapsing and burying the entire property.

Then if you have a hunch, or prediction, that an earthquake is imminent you can at least sleep in the RV for a week or two without fear of rafters falling on your head. You could still chance a shower and meal prep in your home, or even a couple hours watching TV.

That only protects you at home. There's still the matter, for many people, of being at a workplace or elsewhere when a quake occurs. Most peops can't just telecommute when they feel like it. But while at work they could at least take care to have a "get home bag" or BOB within easy reach so they could grab it and run for safety (or dive under their desk) the moment an earthquake begins.

After 9/11 and the subsequent anthrax attacks I never again went to a meeting out of my office without my purse. I have considered the probability that DC will experience other, bigger attacks in the future. Perhaps it is prudent to leave now, or when news reports indicate worldwide tensions are increasing or DHS issues an alert. But I'm unlikely to evacuate because of a tenuous possibility or if a rodent is acting odd.

Let me rephrase that, I actually am prone to vacate the house if I see a rat -- but only long enough to call an exterminator.

It's always a good time to spend a week backpacking. That's my point. Now I can add another rationalization.

Why would you automatically want to leave your house? I have a one story wood frame house, the type that is most likely to resist shaking. Even if damaged, I can pull supplies from the rubble and set up camp in my backyard. If you live in an apartment complex, your scenario will be different.

Let me try this on you, Ann - can I suggest a mental exercise that has helped me to relax and enjoy life, and not worry so much about impending disasters? Instead of worrying about the disaster that may happen at any minute, ask yourself, if a disaster happened in [2 weeks], what would you want to do be better prepared? Put that hypothetical disaster on your mental calendar, 12pm 2 weeks from today, like a dentist appointment, or a kid's play date, and do your best to get ready. I do this all the time, because my personal state of readiness fluctuates - is my car gassed up, is my cell phone charged, where did I put my crowbar anyway? You can make it your task to improve your readiness by removing potential broken glass from your living area, adding food and water to your stores, setting aside a pair of shoes for underneath your bed (where you may want them in the middle of the night). Emergency preparedness folks have tried to embed this kind of preparedness in a monthly calendar of tasks - food and water in month one, out of state contact in month two, etc - and that's good too. To me the biggest benefit is in breaking the work down into simple tasks, getting them done, and removing big worries from my mind along the way. If I have food and water put away I worry less. Same with first aid supplies, clothing, shelter, all the way down to cribbing and extrication gear. It doesn't matter whether a rat or my dog or my Aunt Rosie could predict earthquakes, if it happens it happens, I'm as prepared as I can be, modulo what I still need to do in the next couple weeks. It can help to remove performance anxiety - the same sense I used to get going up on stage as a kid, and doing a part in a play. If I took the time to learn my lines, it wasn't so bad. And there are probably still some parts I could play from memory now.

Anyway, food for thought - we don't need to know when the big one will happen, I think just after it does happen to us, we'll want to be able to say, yes, we were as prepared as possible, and get on with surviving and helping others. And hey, if I'm crushed in the Seattle Fault quake, which I probably will be, whoever digs into my house is going to find a whole lot of really, really neat stuff to live off of!

Ann,

As a person who has studied and followed earthquake prediction science for most of my career, your experience is not uncommon, but in a larger sense useless for prediction. Occassionaly an animal will "predict" an earthquake or two, but the vast majority of them can only do it a few percent of the time. If you still had your rat, and were living in exactly the same place there is a chance that it would predict the next one also. Change any of those things and the probability goes from 1 in 10 to 1 in 100,000 or worse, usually MUCH worse. As for foreshocks, they have been tried and tried but they are just as often absent and even more often are not foreshocks at all, just small earthquakes.

When we have a prediction method that consistantly gets to 1 in 5 I would (I live away from earthquakes) seriously consider acting on that information. Until then, I just consider them upredictable and plan accordingly (I live in FL) ;), Select my location to minimize damage, buy or build my house to reduce failure, be prepared for the worst. Just like I do for hurricanes.

Respectfully,

Jerry

Another way of looking at it - what are the chances you will die in an earthquake? Even living in southern California, they are statistically minimal. I am far more likely to perish in an auto accident that in an earthquake. For that matter, cancer, or various other life style related syndromes are more likely to claim me than a quake.

I try and live a reasonable lifestyle, keep my weight in check, and stay physically active (backpacking again!). I would improve my chances more by buying a modern, safety enhanced auto than by spending the dough on some exotic earthquake measure. If I am trim and fit that is also an asset in earthquake survival and in life in general.

Of course, I always have the option of moving to a locality where earthquakes are not likely. I am always amused at people who take a U-Haul to Kansas after a shaker. I don't think that swapping earthquakes for tornadoes is any improvement. I know people who won't live in California because of quakes. That's fine - life is a series of choices.

Hmm.

Lets get one thing straight: I'm not worried about earthquakes.

Studying up survival things, analyzing it, thinking through scenarios and trying think up different ways to survive things is an enjoyable mental exercise for me. It's my idea of fun. A hobby.

My actual practice of anything preparedness-related is extremely limited for reasons that I'd rather not go into right now. But, my imagination is unhindered.

And maybe that's all this is, imagination. Sorry to bother you guys.

Yep, really nothing to worry about. Just be as prepared as you think prudent. I'm also in SOCAL and we feel the occasional quake. We're far enough from the major faults that I feel comfortable that this house will survive a big one.

That said, the SOCAL infrastructure could/will take a major hit. So the issue for me will be the days without electricity and water. We maintain more than a few days water and while we will possibly lose food that needs to be cold, we won't starve for a month or so.

How would that change if I had a pet cockatoo or dog that could sense an earthquake and reliably give a few days warning? . . . Hmmm

I wouldn't go on vacation. I might ensure that the natural gas was secured and that I topped off the water supply and filled my truck's fuel tank. Max out on everything I use anyway -- standard preps for when I know a wildfire is on the loose. Then I'd just sit back and wait for it. Like you said: "I'm not worried about earthquakes."