Ann,

As a person who has studied and followed earthquake prediction science for most of my career, your experience is not uncommon, but in a larger sense useless for prediction. Occassionaly an animal will "predict" an earthquake or two, but the vast majority of them can only do it a few percent of the time. If you still had your rat, and were living in exactly the same place there is a chance that it would predict the next one also. Change any of those things and the probability goes from 1 in 10 to 1 in 100,000 or worse, usually MUCH worse. As for foreshocks, they have been tried and tried but they are just as often absent and even more often are not foreshocks at all, just small earthquakes.

When we have a prediction method that consistantly gets to 1 in 5 I would (I live away from earthquakes) seriously consider acting on that information. Until then, I just consider them upredictable and plan accordingly (I live in FL) ;), Select my location to minimize damage, buy or build my house to reduce failure, be prepared for the worst. Just like I do for hurricanes.

Respectfully,

Jerry


Edited by JerryFountain (03/02/11 03:12 PM)