One thing to consider in the case of a large event is that everyone else will be doing the same thing that you want to do:

- Hurricane threat? Suddenly everyone gets bottled water.
- Large scary city event? Everyone heads home all at once.
-Blizzard coming? better buy a shovel.

How do plan for these mass reactions?

Proactive, not reactive. While I realize that not everyone is able to purchase or store vast quantities of tools, food, fuel, water, and etc., rudimentary equipment and provisions do not require that much space. Buy a little extra non-perishable food each trip to the store. Keep an extra "12 pack" of water on hand. The list could go on indefinitely, but the point is that the individual MUST be constantly vigilant about their preparedness status. Situational awareness is paramount in the grand scheme of things. If you develop the Ostrich mentality, that is to say living with your head in the sand, whatever your scenario is will not have a good outcome. By preparing for the obvious threats in our respective geographical areas, we will have most if not all the necessary provisions to deal with the sudden unforeseen happenings that occur. I guess the bottom line is don't wait until the excrement is in the ventilation to get what you need.

My suggestion is to know what your expected large event is. Here in the San Francisco Bay Area it's earthquakes first, followed by floods and mud slides in the winter and fires in the summer. Fortunately, I don't live in a flood-, slide-, and fire-prone area, although fires have a way of spreading. That leaves my major problem as quakes. I figure I'll be bugging in for that, as the peninsula has only two roads and one direction out. If the overpasses collapse, both roads will be closed.

We've got a month's worth of food and water for two, along with shelter, clothes, and such -- we hope all we need for a month without government help.

One of the issues about earthquakes is that there's no warning, so no long lines because no one will be "preparing." I figure no electricity, so no gasoline, no charge cards, no nothing that requires electricity. Probably no gas, but probably fires from gas main breaks.

So I'm guessing people will be hunkered down for awhile till the shaking stops, then we'll all step out into the brave new world of New Orleans after Katrina.

Like Philip in SF/Bay area, SOCAL has earthquakes (which are zero warning, come as you are events) and wildfires which are nice enough to give us some warning. Other areas will have tornadoes and hurricanes (near zero warning vs multiple days warning). You need to consider what those events are and determine the best way for you to prepare. For most situations preps have a lots of similarity -- we all have the same basic needs and rule of 3's applies.

You mentioned a large scary city event where everyone heads home at once. My advice is either be ahead of the first big wave of peeps by maintaining your situational awareness (SA), or being prepared to bug-in your office. I always tried to maintain SA and was able to leave quickly. In that particular office environment bugging in would have been a no-go, so having a boss that said, "go" was very fortunate.

I'm all set for disaster supplies, so for me I'd be going out for milk and the like.

I was a teenager during Hurricane Donna in 1962, and a critical object lesson was the image of a little old lady with a shopping basket full of toilet paper, and an empty shelf behind her....I tried to convey this mentality to my students, and a 5gal "go" bucket became a yearly lab assignment for many years..... if your local public school participates in the "Great American Teach In" you can spread the word if you volunteer for a presentation....check with the policy on edged tools

As everyone sais, the only thing which you can do better that the chap next door is to plan in advance.

Buy those extra goods if you can afford the cost and have the storage space. But above all PLAN. Designing a plan, or several plans, will cost you nothing. Its something which you can do at home, during your lunch break, or when you're out and about.

You need to think about the possible scenarios and then sort them into the most and least likely.
You need to be realistic about the duration and extent of any “outage” caused by each event. Is it a 24 hour storm or TEOTWAWKI ?

Simply having a shopping list so that you know your priorities of what to purchase (you don’t want to forget something)
Have a list of the things which need to be done around the house (securing outdoor furniture etc)

Of course buying critical items in advance makes sense, because then you are not competing with last minute panic buyers. You can break up your purchases into things which you can buy well in advance (often one off items like a that spare shovel), things which you can buy seasonally (eg restock long like food stuffs like rice or pasta at the start of the season, and eat them at the end of the season). Of course the more that is done in advance the better, but we all have constraints in time, money and storage space, so you need to strike a sensible balance.

There will always be last minute items, so having a clear list of what to do when the scenario starts to unfold makes sense too. When that emergency starts, at the first signs, you may still want to get to the shops for fuel or to get some items that you are low on, but at least you have a plan and you know what things you want and you have planned on acting on the list at an early point.

Don’t forget to include skills in your long term plans. Its great to have all that food, water and shelter stockpiled in a bunker, but skills can be overlooked when it comes to preparations. For instance a first aid course can literally be a lifesaver. Do you know how to change a tyre ? Can you make emergency repairs to your own home ? Car ? Can you light a fire ? in the wet ? Change a fuse ? Use a signal mirror ? What are your bushcraft / survival skills like ?
Now answer each of these questions for each member of your family !

Planning and following through on your preparations …

… that is what makes you different from everyone else.

I think the plan is to act fast, like within the first hour of an event. Many people will probably be in state of denial or disbelief, and may not act right away. So those first couple of hours may be critical. If there's a little warning, or immediately after a major event, my first plan is to gas up the car if the pumps are working. And definitely stay off the freeway. With earthquakes though, all bets are off. Thats why I never let the tank go below 1/2 and keep a 3 day kit in the car. Depending how bad it is, it may take that long to get home. And hopefully home is still standing.

Tornados don't have multiple day warnings. When we receive that tornado warning, we only have a few minutes.

Jeanette Isabelle

Very, very timely topic.

See the post I just made in regards to an Earthquake in New Zealand tonight.

Neither do earthquakes. Read the entire post again, there is a comparison being made.

Earthquakes and tornadoes have near zero to zero warning (come as you are). Hurricanes and wildfires will have more than zero to maybe a week depending on proximity, path fuel . . .

Stocking up with extra food and water is the easiest thing to do. It's a ONE TIME cost. Then, it's just a matter of buying and rotating stock.

I did read the post. As cited in my post, tornados were grouped with hurricanes unless the "near zero warning" is in reference to tornadoes, not earth quakes.

Jeanette Isabelle

I love the "Get a hand radio so if the cell network goes down like it did in 911 you can communicate with your family" advice. If followed that means EVERYONE will have one and with only what 20somthing? channels there would be no ability to even use them over the amount of chatter from the 100s if not 1000s of people on the same channels. Its hard enough to use them on a family vacation without running into other people ont he same channels.

From my understanding of the orginal posting for this question was "how do you deal with the mob mentality of rushing out to buy equipment/food that is needed."

The answer that I have has already been stated, Pre buy for almost every precivable disaster. Take the time to stock up on food and gear you may need. don't rush out adn buy it all at once. but rather buy it over six monthsl or a year. And for the love of all things good, do not try to buy anything when the mobs are trying to buy it.

Form an orderly Queue

I remember I was in Mexico on Holiday and an American fellow queue jumped the line at the hotel pool bar. If this had happened in the UK a policeman might have been called.

The OP also touched on crowded travel routes. That is something that is a daily occurrence here in SoCal - it is known as "rush hour." If you must travel, try to be a contrarian and find the path less traveled, or get ahead (or, sometimes, behind) the crowd. The measures you need to have in mind vary tremendously depending upon your circumstances. People in Rapid City have a much less severe problem than those in Los Angeles.

I like to include a bicycle in my plans. They can thread through a crowded freeway with ease and take to side roads when necessary.

Preparedness is all about not having to join the mobs at stores and being able to survive for some period of time with what you have on you -- at home or away. I'm pretty well prepared for all but the end-of-days scenarios or being on travel when something occurs.

If you have to run to the store when a blizzard or hurricane is forecast, you're not prepared. Post-disaster, you may have to run to the store if your preps are inaccessible because an earthquake, tornado or something else severely damaged your home. If you want to run to the store simply to pile on the preps then at least you should be under less stress than the totally unprepared masses.

If an asteroid is headed our way I'll be busy loading as much as possible of what I already have in and on the car to head for higher, less populated ground. Among the things going on the car are two mountain bikes and bike trailers.

For urban preparedness, I'd advise starting preps with:


cash - gas - water - food - radio - light (headlamp/flashlight/candles)


I have these items pretty well covered at home and in the car. Water is the most difficult for long-term situations. Just about any disaster scenario includes potential for power outage -- which if long enough is itself a disaster.

Hmm, yet another list for me to make. The "pile on the preps" last minute, optional preps list. Up to now my plan was simple, buy gas if possible. Thanks for the added work Dagny.

Two words - Be Prepared.

Snow is forecast for next week, maybe. Prepare today with what you will need next week.

You live in hurricane/tornado/earthquake alley. Prepare now for no notice/short notice events.

An asteroid is coming to hit the Earth. Buy lots of beer and chips and have a party, it's all over but the shouting kids.

Being truly prepared means that you worry about stuff you can change, and don't worry about stuff you can't change.

Stock up ahead of time is what we do up here in the mountains.
Multiple shovels, cases of bottled water, 10+ 5g water containers stored in cool shady place. Wood stove for heat.

Work from home, wife works 1hr away, and we've discussed if she had to walk home due to numerous possible causes.

Heavy snow.. deal with it every winter. Generators, shovels, plow for ATV, 60hp tractor works awesome as a plow and great for driving through up to 2.5' of snow easily. (More if I take time, or plow too.)

We just got our power back Sunday it was out since Thursday AM, it then went out again last night for a couple hours.

If you plan to deal with power outages, and have a generator but no transfer switch you will need numerous extension cords, and power strips to make life much easier.

I am also going to purchase an aux fuel tank for my Honda EU2000. Running my office, and our fridge we get about 7-9hrs of run-time from 1 tank. This also includes lights, misc charging, and a couple hours of my 50" Plasma TV. Having to go and add fuel 2-3 times a day (runs about 16-18hrs a day) gets tedious especially when it's freezing temps, slippery, and snowing!

This is out my kitchen window a couple days ago.
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/3410/kitchenwindow.jpg
Part of driveway after an hour or so with the tractor.
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/7947/driveway2plowed.jpg

As you are having your party, this song, by R.E.M., needs to be on your play list.

Jeanette Isabelle

It is instructive to read the posts re the NZ earthquake (thanks, Dagny). Drinking water is a big problem. Those with minor injuries are being asked to self treat at home due to the load on the hospitals. Bugging in is the preferred strategy and people are being asked to stay off the roads and keep travel to a minimum.

Why settle for one year of ramen noodles when you can pick up another palette full at Costco?

:-)

Hikermor's right, the presently unfolding disaster situation in New Zealand is instructive. Here's one excerpt:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10708166



"There are queues of 50 cars outside every gas station, 10 people outside each ATM and a queue of 40 people just to get into New World - not at the checkout - this is just to get in the doors. And no bread or milk."

It often pays to be a contrarian. It can be as simple as going around the amusement park clockwise so you spend half the morning entirely free of the crowds. Buying winter gear as late in the season as possible means you get less of a selection but you also get a huge discount.

Having a basic supply of what you need means you can avoid the rush and risk of being caught in an oncoming blizzard. There is a certain smug satisfaction sipping hot cocoa and watching people rush off through the storm to get vital supplies.

On the other hand you want to be reasonable. Wearing nothing but Speedos during a blizzard, or arctic parka in summer, is foolish. Being arbitrarily contrary doesn't mean you are right or wise. Conventional wisdom and timing works pretty well for most people most of the time.

Jeanette -- semantics, we're good. Point is that there are some events that you need to prepare for and stay prepared for because they come with no warning. Other events will give some finite amount of time, but even then you may be competing with others for limited supplies available on the shelf. It's always best to think ahead and buy more than your immediate needs, if you have the resources to bank in extra supplies.

Todd W...you might be interested in a pervious post of mine.. I made a siphon hose with prime bulb to run my Honda3500ES generator...it gravity siphons directly from elevated 6gal can...mine has easy access the 1/4 inch fuel line inlet on the carb...used a brass 1/4 barb x 1/4 male to a 5/16 barb x 1/4 female fitting to make the adapter to the fuel inlet hose...7feet of automotive fuel line, 1ft 1/4 inlet line, bulb from WallMart...if doing it again would select a 3/8 diameter for the fuel line as having more utility... siphon alone would make transfer easier, especially with some form of valve at terminal end...

Wow Todd, I'm seriously jealous. Thanks for the photos.

'I love the "Get a hand radio so if the cell network goes down ... you can communicate with your family" advice. If followed that means EVERYONE will have one and with only what 20 ... channels there would be no ability to even use them...'

I can absolutely, positively GUARANTEE that 'everyone' will NOT get one, for all the denial reasons that have often been posted.

You can do PSAs every 15 minutes on every television and radio station, hand-deliver books of info with pictures to every man, woman and child in America, and you can preach it in churchs and shout it from the rooftops, and IT ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN!

One day at my previous job, I asked my immediate coworkers if they prepared for anything the PNW is likely to offer. One did, the others hadn't done anything. I asked what their plan was if we had a major quake or Mt. Rainier blew her top. The answer:

"I guess we'll just sit and wait a few days for the government to rescue us."

Goodnight, Gracie.

Sue

Here in WA, every time a big windstorm or something is predicted, most people run to the stores for the necessities: water, Dinty Moore, tuna, diapers and beer. EVERY TIME they have carts filled with drinking water. And I always wonder what they do with it when the event is over, water the petunias?

Pre-plan and act. If you need to, gas, bread and milk. Done.

Sue

Top off the truck's gas tank and I'm done . . with buying. If it's a wildfire, I take my full gas tank home and load the truck. Then I maintain SA on the fire.

Hmm. I lived in Christchurch, and I have mixed feelings. I have friends and family there, but naturally I am glad I am not there right now. Except that I'm not (glad, that is). I'd like to be there helping out.

I wouldn't be queuing outside the gas station, ATM or supermarket because when I lived there I had at least three days' worth of prepared food and a couple of weeks' worth of staples that could be easily cooked, and camp stoves/cooking equipment. I had water stored, and a cache of stuff outside the house in case it collapsed and I couldn't get to the main store. I had some cash on hand, and I always kept the petrol tank in the car half full or more.

In addition I did SAR and Civil Defence training, and I have access to amateur radio equipment. I told friends and neighbours to be prepared (and referred them to the handy Civil Defence checklist on the back of *everyone's* copy of Yellow Pages). It saddens me a little that I cannot be there to help, since I have the training and the gear, but it saddens me more that there are still people who are ill-prepared despite the fact that the information is freely available, and, as we have discussed, preparations can be made cheaply and slowly in a piecemeal but effective way.

Having said all that I cannot predict how I would react to the situation. I might freeze, or break down, or make poor decisions, or find that I didn't actually have the stuff I need. I might also be injured or killed. But, I would have had no worries in advance of (or during) the event happening because I am confident I would be able to help myself and others around me.

My family and friends are safe, but I am sorry for those who didn't make it. In my new environment I have to worry about flooding, heavy snow, extreme heat, and invasion from the North. Preparations are different, but I have done *something*.

Sorry. The news from NZ has been quite sobering. I don't want to blame the people who were not prepared, but it does frustrate me.

A

Oh, and I had a 'regular' telephone hooked up to the phone socket because I knew that my cordless phone wouldn't work if there was a power outage.

A

Same thing happens here. Bottled water and gasoline are the first things to go. I have the obligatory 3-day supply of water, the means to purify more, and about a weeks worth of food.

About the only pre-thinking I do is to top off the tank whenever Santa Anas are forecast.

I think everybody does what I do whenever I rotate the water in my kit: drink it. All those water bottles everybody is carting around.... Yup, thats where it goes.

P.S. 6 month old water is really only palatable when it's cold.

In terms of preparedness, one of the things I worry about is gasoline. I experienced the gas shortages of the '70s; it was not fun. Odd-even fueling days, no gas if you had more than 1/2 a tank, 10 gallons max otherwise, and sometimes spending over an hour in line for that.

I keep two 5-gallon jerry can's full of gas. Each month I dump one into the Jeep and immediately refill it, so the gas doesn't go bad. But I'd like to have more. I've been toying with the idea of getting a 55-gallon drum and a transfer pump, filling the drum 5-gallons at a time via jerry cans. I have yet to find out what zoning/fire laws might apply.

Assuming a closed drum of unleaded gasoline with the proper amount of fuel stabilizer, does anyone know how long gasoline can be stored before it becomes unusable? Would drawing-off and replacing 5 to 10 gallons a month make any difference?

"P.S. 6 month old water is really only palatable when it's cold."

A. There's nothing wrong with it, it's just flat. Pour from one container to another several times (creating lots of bubbles), and you probably wouldn't know the difference.

B. We have good, tested community well water here. When I empty a bottle, I ... wait for it... REFILL IT, and put it in my storage area.

C. When emptied, dry it and put the cap back on. When high winds are forecast, just pull out the empties and fill them.

It isn't the winds, it isn't the warnings, it isn't the lack of bottled water, it's the inability of many people to line up all three of their brain cells and think for five seconds.

Sue

[quote=Mark_R

P.S. 6 month old water is really only palatable when it's cold. [/quote]

Standards of palatability go out the window when you are really, really thirsty.....

I'm not sure there is a way to prepare for the building you are in collapsing on you or bricks coming down on your car.

You know, if I actually did have 30 minutes warning of a disaster, I'd go buy chocolate. I am simply incapable of keeping an emergency supply in the house. No trouble keeping my hands off the canned chickpeas though
Remember during a disaster once everyone is done running in circles and screaming, there tends to be a lot of sitting around - might as well make sure you have supplies of your distraction of choice available. Escapist fiction is also good

That's funny, Sealander... I have the same problem!

I guess it's like water: if you find you didn't have enough the first time, you need to store MUCH more for the second disaster.

Sue

Chocolate, books, fluffy robe...I'm in!

Sorry, a perhaps pevish visit to a pet peeve:

"Event pre-thinking"

"Pre-thinking" would be what? Could it possibly be an awkward way of expressing the concept of "planning"? Or maybe it is an effort to ascertain the relevance of some instinct-level brain function that occurs before conscious thinking comes online?

Okay, I feel better. Sorry.

It's alright, Dweste! *pat**pat**pat* It's probably just the moon.

Yes, planning... I guess.

Silly-speak is supposed to sound what my Mom referred to as "high-falutin'"

It's like the news media telling about how something is going to be "impacted by" something else, when he really just means 'affected'. Unless we're going to be hit by an asteroid, in which case "impacted" would probably be correct.

Sue

Thanks, Sue, I needed that!

Good point.

...But its a good way to get people to see old info in a new way.

And why its often hard to find grillin charcoal on the 4th of July.