Originally Posted By: philip
Originally Posted By: Dagny

> big snip<
[i]Bystanders miles away would witness a 100-mph fireball shooting five miles into the sky. Sun-surface heat, hyperexplosive pressures and 900-mph winds would level buildings for half a mile. Between 50,000 and 100,000 people would vanish in smoke and flame.

Flash-blind drivers 10 miles away would crash, blocking evacuation routes. [i]Fallout would rain down for hundreds of miles, according to the White House's Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation,posted on the Internet in June.



I recommend that everyone read that pamphlet from about page 19 on to see what the government really projects instead of hysteria from a local reporter. The government does expect a blinding flash of light from a nuke, but they expect the blindness to last all of 30 minutes if it's night and the pupils are fully dilated. (Oh, and it's up to 15 miles away at night.) And the half-mile severe damage zone won't be totally leveled - because of blockage by buildings, some will survive. It's a complicated calculus based on explosion altitude, building congestion, and zoning (yes, zoning - buildings with good construction provide breaks in the damage).

And the fallout is a problem that's mitigated by the passage of time, as I noted in my original post. As others have noted, I'm fully expectant that the hordes would try to evacuate; I also expect that other hordes would fight off the carriers of radiation, and we'd have a fight between people trying to get out and others trying to stop them (same in any other mass-casualty event like disease or chemical disaster).

My plan remains staying and sheltering in place, with some flexibility as I try to stay upwind, upstream, uphill from whatever contamination is being spread around.



It's obviously not going to be "The Day After" if terrorists get hold of one or a few or even several low-yield nukes.

Whether blinded for several seconds or 30 minutes, the reporter is correct. The blast flash would cause a lot of car accidents that block evacuation routes. And then there are macula retinal burns the report discusses which could cause permanent blindness -- bigger risk for those driving toward the detonation, such as in the case of Washington, D.C.: I-66 eastbound, I-270 southbound, I-395 northbound or I-95 or the BW Parkway southbound, Route 50 west from Annapolis or the GW Parkway inbound.

Fifteen miles encompasses the entire 64-mile Beltway if the Capitol, WH or Pentagon are targeted. There will be car accidents far outside the Beltway from people gawking at the distant 5-mile high mushroom cloud.

The 10-kiloton scenario should be comforting to those who don't live or work in or near top-tier targets and don't have family or friends who do. It should be comforting to Annapolis, Frederick and Baltimore and all of PG County, Maryland -- which is often downwind of DC. Georgetown could feel a bit more optimistic, if the wind is blowing as it usually does. Anyone who is usually upwind of DC, Manhattan, Chicago, Los Angeles or other cities can take some comfort in it.

The damage projections may resonate differently with those who live and work in prospective Severe Damage Zones or, if we're "lucky," the Moderate Damage Zone. My neighborhood is comprised of 100 year old, or older, rowhouses. Any fires ignited in the MDZ are going to burn for awhile, and spread, while the nearest operating fire stations decide whether and how to respond on roads that may be blocked by debris.

Whether a single 10-kiloton bomb, something bigger or a smaller nuke -- it would be a profoundly disturbing event for the entire nation if any city in it were the site of a nuclear detonation, of any size. If detonated in a populated area, it will eclipse any other disaster this country has ever suffered.

It won't be the end of the world -- except for the dead or hideously injured.