According to the International Energy Association, we peaked at 70 million barrels/day in 2006 (this from an agency that has historically said peak was decades off). We'll never get back to that. The ongoing "plateau" that the IEA predicts is based on new finds (based on the deep oil drilling, I'd wager a bet that easy new finds are in the past tense). Otherwise, we're heading for pretty steep declines, especially if the global economy picks up.

World Energy Outlook

Here in Sonoma County, we've been trying to get passenger rail on existing tracks for years now. Finally through its environmental review, the project now keeps coming up short on funding. I don't see how we'd implement rail on any meaningful scale in the time we have remaining before oil becomes prohibitively expensive for all but the most necessary activities. Same goes for nukes.

I think we'd all do well to get in shape, buy a bike and some shoes that can be resoled.