I see no reason to put myself in a position where one "fumble" = death? Why not have a suitable bivy and sleeping gear with you? If there's a lot of wind and no other shelter within reach, it may be a lot better to just "hole up" until the rain or snow stops, rather than waste time and body heat trying to start a fire, don't you think? Fire doesn't count for much unless you have a pile of fuel, shelter from the wind, and some sort of reflector. Otherwise, to stay warm, you have to build and maintain 3 fires, and sack out in the middle of the 3. so it's best by far to get to some sort of windbreak, preferably one that shields you from rain/snow, and which has fuel not too far away, before bothering to light a fire.