Europe will also see some dire consequences as well, there is no doubt about that. There has been a huge increase US style consumerist activities in the last 20 years requiring the use of a motorised vehicle in Europe despite the shorter traveling distance. Public transportation in the UK is a complete and utter disaster in dire need of strategic investment. Here is an example;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebaDe3eiQIA&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yOqU4-zE5w



Europe has had its fair share of nuclear accidents although nothing really on the scale of Russian and US based incidents.

According to the International Energy Association, we peaked at 70 million barrels/day in 2006 (this from an agency that has historically said peak was decades off). We'll never get back to that. The ongoing "plateau" that the IEA predicts is based on new finds (based on the deep oil drilling, I'd wager a bet that easy new finds are in the past tense). Otherwise, we're heading for pretty steep declines, especially if the global economy picks up.

World Energy Outlook

Here in Sonoma County, we've been trying to get passenger rail on existing tracks for years now. Finally through its environmental review, the project now keeps coming up short on funding. I don't see how we'd implement rail on any meaningful scale in the time we have remaining before oil becomes prohibitively expensive for all but the most necessary activities. Same goes for nukes.

I think we'd all do well to get in shape, buy a bike and some shoes that can be resoled.

What it will come down to is the basics: the end of the long business commutes, very little traveling, far less importation, far less 'stuff' available, including foods (esp regional specialties).

"And yes, we have done the right things, when many other countries have refused to, other possibilities included. For all."

Yes, when forced to, and when there is enough profit in it to make it worthwhile. Most philanthropic endeavors have been forwarded by individuals.

Sue

Population density isn't really an issue. At high densities subways and trolleys work well, most major cities in the 40s had one or both. As density goes down light rail gets into the picture. Light rail works well at typical suburban densities. As you move to low densities passenger rail and high-speed rail works well and is easier to implement because the long straight routes that favor such traffic are easier to establish.

The organization would likely be a hub and spur system with central hubs being linked by high-speed rail with lighter rail systems linking smaller towns and on down to neighborhoods. Ideally the entire structure would be mirrored by a freight/mail/cargo system, likely based on standard shipping containers.

Trucks, buses, cabs and rental vehicles would fill in the gaps.

One of the biggest issues is psychological. We Americans like to think of ourselves as different and special. Europe isn't really all that different than the US. They have sparsely populated areas and the distances, say from Poland to Spain, or northern Sweden to southern Italy, functionally as open as cross-country travel here, is in the same ballpark in mileage as a trip across the US.

Also it has to be noted that a major shift to nuclear may end up just kicking the can down the road instead of solving the problems. We are talking about Peak-Oil now but we might be talking about Peak-Uranium in thirty years if we lean on it too hard. The lighter we step the longer the resource lasts.

Of course we could extend nuclear semi-indefinitely by using breeder reactors. The problem being that breeder reactors produce weapons-grade materials and the more practical designs, in terms of productive breeding ratios(above 1:1), are more exotic and potentially risky. Reactors using liquid sodium as coolant has obvious issues. Thorium breeders offer theoretical advantages but these have never been built as anything but tiny experimental units.

The obvious answer is fusion power. And as soon as a commercially viable fusion reactor opens I will put my jet-pack down and hop over to the opening on my flying car. I'm not anti-technology. But fusion energy has been a distant promise for sixty years now. It will be great if/when it arrives so we should fully fund research. But you don't base a national energy policy on a technology that hasn't been established, fusion or thorium.

As far as nuclear power goes England, France and Germany are well ahead of the US. We still get the largest single chunk of of our electricity from coal. Of course Europe leads in Nuclear, solar, wind, rail, high-speed rail, and both the availability and price of broadband communications. Not too shabby for a bunch of knuckle-dragging socialists who live in freedom-hating hell-holes of government oppression.

Art,Just one slight Mis-calculation of Ratio,England,France,Germany are 3 Very Seperate/Very Diferrent Countries,Combined about the same size as,California & Nevada & Arizona !

What I am visualizing as a major problem is our overall unwillingness to admit that things are really going to change.

We are water, resource, and energy hogs. We use more than our fair share of everything, and feel it is our right, since we can afford to pay for it. And when we really start to feel the pinch via rationing, we will be totally unprepared for dealing with it. Just because you can afford to drive a daily commute of 200 miles in your private car doesn't mean that that is the best use of resources.

The American response to the gas shortages of the 70s was to create gas-guzzling SUVs, Hummers, motorhomes and honking big show-off pickup trucks. How's THAT for dealing with reality?

In the Philippines they have what they call jitneys, converted vehicles like buses designed to carry the maximum number of people for the lowest cost. Halfway down this page on the left, it shows a double-decker jitney with a canvas tarp as a cover. THAT'S doing the most with the least.

During the Great Depression, many people traveled in railroad boxcars, even crossing the country. Today, riding the rails (depending on the state) can vary from a small fine to a misdemeanor to a $500 fine to a felony charge. Smarter states (NJ, NY) have simply decreed that if an illicit passenger is injured, he can't recover damages.

Between overwhelming greed and excessive regulation, we aren't really in any position at this time to deal with Peak Oil, and won't be for a long time, if ever. We're just not that... bright, I guess.
Sue

When I was in The Philli's,Jitney's were called Jeepney's!You had to be "Hammered outa' your Gourd" in order to Ride in one,& The Exhaust ALWAY'S found where you were sitting,Rain Always found your seat as well,lol!In Asia Major,They have what are called"Tuk-Tuk's",They are like a 3-wheeled Cushmans,Souped up with The Smoggiest 2-cycle engines,I thought Possible,& You had to be a Native to ride in one,Without Barfing on Yourself!Traffic on that side of The Globe is Horrendous on a Good Day,& Daily Deaths, were Commonplace amongst Jeepneys & Tuk-Tuks!These Vehicles are VERY conservative,As per Fuel Consumption but,They put out some Serious Pollution!They are a Blast to watch!

American will do what we have always done. Avoid change. Deny any need to change. Flagrantly flaunt actions that go counter to the direction of change. Reagan removing solar panels from the Whitehouse and declaring "morning in America" and 'deficits don't matter', and removal of the double nickle limit. SUVs, McMansions, and the rest of the conspicuous consumption attitude are part of this. A major problem is that Americans have very short attention spans.

A problem pops up and we do a little of this and little of that and then assume the problem has been solved. Peak oil is really the larger part of the same beast we saw during the oil crisis in the 70s. The problem wasn't solved, and it didn't go away.

To make big changes rapidly we will have to fall flat on our face. It took Pearl Harbor to get people serious about WW2. Consider that WW2 had been under way for years.

Every call for change is met with denial and half measures until something breaks in a very big way. You can see it in Peak Oil, climate change, food safety, and corporate control of both government and the media. Americans don't do maintenance and proactive reform. We always wait for a major disaster to hit. You need a body count to get anything on the agenda.