Be prepared everyone. It always amazes me how many people don't have basic supplies. I do understand adding a few extras. When we have a big snowstorm they always have someone on that doesn't have gloves or a shovel etc.

Lots of data tracking Hurricane Earl.

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/tropical-storm-earl-2010

Even gives water temperatures along the East coast water with data from Sea Buoys. The waters seem to be extremely warm even off the coast of New York. Hurricane Earl also has an very low barometric pressure of 941mb i.e. only a few mb higher than the 38 Long Island express.

Lets hope the majority of the computer models are correct and Hurricane Earl veers of at the last moment (12 hrs make your mind up time if you live in New York to activate the BOB) and makes the impressive right hand turn into the Atlantic, otherwise there is still a Russian Roulettes chance that this fiction might become a reality.

http://www.landstrike.com/book.html

http://www.amazon.com/Landstrike-Ken-Bas...2110&sr=1-1

BTW, if New York is/was ever to face a Katrina like event (i.e. 20+ft storm surge), would there ever be a Mayor Bloomberg Mandatory Evacuation (get out of dodge) notice given to its residents considering that the emergency plan is one of 'shelter in place'?

I hope that the BAMS and BAMM computer model tracks are the correct ones, but again there is a huge variance in the individual Computer model tracks.
Even at 42 hrs from now

BAMS has Earl at 31.1N 72.9W
BAMM has Earl at 32.5N 72.5W

Where as NOGAPS (US Navy) has Earl at 39.0N 72.9W (approx around 120Nmi from New York)

This is a huge discrepancy between the BAMS and NOGAPS tracks at 42 hours of over 290 Nmi

The problem with these fast moving Hurricanes (as they track northward or northeast) is that it would appear that the consensus of computer model tracks shows that only approximately 12 to 18 hrs warning is available for high density urban populations on the east coast such as New York. You will have to wait a good 6 hours after Earl has passed Cape Hatteras to get a more reliable indication of whether Earl has begun to vector away into the North Atlantic.

When do you Bug out from New York?

e.g. 18hrs out with 10% probability of a direct hit
or 12hrs with a 50% probability or 6hrs with a 90% probability.

This is going to be a close one. The lives of many thousands of unprepared people could be reliant on a computer model.

Well, here in Suffolk, VA, Earl is a bust (IMHO).

They were predicting TS force winds, rain from 2-6am. Outside is a light drizzle, I didn't wake once overnight. I really don't think my condo has the best construction on the planet, so I assume it was a benign "kiss" as the hurricane rushed past.

Then again, I grew up in CA with the Santa Ana winds, so anything under a steady 45mph I probably ignore in my sleep.

MA is a bust too. By the time it hits the cape it will be 40 or so mph winds. And only 2" of rain overnight. Where I live, light rain only. It has now lost its eye, and may be barely a TS by the time it hits. The upside is, our governor staged emergency supplies & equipment in western MA, prepping for it. I dont agree with almost anytthing he does, but this was a good thing, getting FEMA in before the storm. Even if it turns out it isnt needed.

Looks like Western Long Island will be OK. Does not look like we'll even get upgraded beyond Tropical Storm Watch.

This storm will likely be less damaging than the Nor'easter we had earlier this year. That storm came with very little awareness amongst the public of how damaging it would be, whereas this time everyone has at least head about it on the news. From what I understand the power company had its ego bruised after the nor'easter, so they've got extra crews from the midwest staged and ready to go.

Got a look at the county 120-hour hurricane plan from the county EOC. Interesting stuff.

In other news, some idiot decided that yesterday evening would be a good time to go swimming in the Atlantic surf (which was impressive then, and will be moreso today). He got into trouble, and an off duty, 18-year old lifeguiard went in after him with no gear but her moxie and youthful bravado. She made a legit save, but took on a lot of water herself and nearly didn't make it out. I helped transport her to the ER, and I am still in awe of what she did (she weighed about 140, and the vic about 250!).

Folks, please don't do stupid stuff that puts others in jeopardy. When there's a hurricane off shore is not a great time to test your swimming ability.

They dropped that for Queens and Nassau around 7:30 this am - sigh, could have used some rain (they are now predicting a whopping 1/4" of rain here in Queens)

I grew up in NYC and weathered a few hurricanes. Unless the storm is projected to be far stronger than I'd expect that far North, bugging in is better than bugging out. Make sure you have plenty of water, food, batteries and booze.

One of the nice things about NYC is that most of the power lines are underground, so bad storms have much less effect on ConEd than other utilities.

If you are going to bug out of NYC, I'd suggest 24 hours minimum. It can be a nightmare to get out of the city during the Friday rush hour, forget about escaping during an actual mass exodus.

Long Island is positively nasty to get off of in the best of times. If I lived there I'd probably build a very sturdy above-ground storm shelter and tell my neighbors that it's a storage shed.

Wandering the web I found this interesting piece:
http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/most-vulnerable-hurricane-cities-1048/

And, worrying, the hurricanes may get stronger:
http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/how-strong-can-a-hurricane-get-0330/

There's still a lot of media buzz as Earl bears down on the Canadian maritime provinces. According to reports, most storms lose a lot of their steam as they hit cooler waters; but maybe not this time. (I can't really say; I live a long way from the ocean. But I remember the pics of Juan's aftermath; I was in Halifax a few weeks earlier.)

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Awes...7735/story.html