OK East Coasters, what are your thoughts on Hurricane Earl, and how are you preparing?

Current forcast cone is coming uncomfortably close to my home:

National Hurricane Center

and the hurricane force wind forcast does not look much better. I'm going to assume that we're going to feel this one, even if we do not get a direct hit.
National Hurricane Center Hurrican Force Wind Projection

I've alerted my family that we may be changing our plans for Labor Day weekend, and substituting staying on the beach with an impromtu trip to the Catskills.

Anyone else making plans?

If you have never been through a hurricane, it is hard to comprehend the amount of rain you get, especially if it stalls... a couple of inches an hour for 6-8hours... wind and storm surge aside.... the damage done from flooding (I would be leery of retreating to a mountain area that could direct run off to the valley)disrupts everything, electric power (A/C and entertainment) transportation avenues,and most of all sewer... ...Florida had an excellent Emergency Management Director under Craig Fugate..and lots of experience and plans to preposition water and ice, EMT, power company vehicles...I doubt that New York has had that much experience...the slogan "hide from the wind, run from the water" is pretty good. If you are not in immediate danger from wind/storm surge I would suggest "hunkering down in place" in familiar surroundings expecially if you have young children.. the practical side of preparations ...check with the large scale, and urban preparedness of this forum...good luck

Hmmm... a couple wispy clouds have popped up (Th-Fri) in our otherwise clear-as-a-bell 10-day forecast. Not going to lose a wink of sleep over it -- unless the storm track were to change dramatically.

Preparedness buys priceless peace of mind. As do the city tree cutters who are coming tomorrow to take out a sick one across the street.

My fuel tank is down a quarter so will top that off today or tomorrow as I normally would, anyway. Have plenty of food already -- refrigerated and non-refrigerated -- water, loads of camping gear that's handy in a power outage. Lanterns, flashlights, headlamps and batteries galore. Portable radios.

I've been at this so long my inventory is packed with plurals.

Reminds me to retrieve a tarp I lent out a couple weeks ago to a neighbor.

Most important: have three boxes of Greenies and just bought a new bag of dog food so Gidget's in good shape.

And DC this week is about as quiet as it gets, people have already evacuated -- to the beaches. Ooops....

And that reminds me I'm part of a group of friends taking care of the dog of another friend who this morning started a two-week trip overseas.

Wouldn't want to be on the other side of the world with no one to prep the house and a hurricane bearing down.

I'll be keeping an eye on Earl. Some of the models are starting to inch to the West, and storms that come up the Chesapeake Bay get messy. I'm pretty well set on supplies, but I may grab a couple extra cases of water on my normal grocery run.

I'll be curious to see if anybody films any cleaning out of stores by unprepared people, as these storms close in on the American coast.

Catching images of people clearing shelves is pretty much a staple of Hurricane Season News even if they run old footage from seasons past.

Stay safe everyone!

Living in earthquake country, in a way I kind of envy those of you in hurricane alley. You have so much advance notice! Use the time wisely...

Cycled the radio batteries today, checked the Genny fuels, gonna work on the weather station tomorrow - the anenometer isn't working right, and I've never installed the rain gage - Wedneday, I'll do my usual midweek shop

Stay safe and good luck this hurricane season.

I'll be in uneventful (in terms of hurricanes) this year. Normally i'd be prepping for the season at this stage but the worst thing weather wise we deal with over here is the freakin' cold (7c this morning)!

Will have the scotch waiting if anyone evac's to this side of the world.

Good luck.

Living in earthquake country I try to stay pretty well stocked up on supplies and food all the time. I’m also in a semi-rural area with potential for fairly long power outages when hit by a wind storm.

So with a storm warning, I’d top gas tanks off, check the generator, make some extra ice in my freezer, rotate any water that was getting close to needing rotating, have coolers cleaned and ready, re-charge some batts that are in my lights and portable radio, then make a trip to the grocery for fresh bread and dairy products as well as making sure that the animal feed and supplies are sufficient for at least one month. Also charge up any batt power tools, as you want those batts pre-charged if you have to make any repairs.

Even with a generator to help with refrigeration, coolers come in very handy to keep stuff you are using frequently, saves opening the fridge door for my half and half, etc that goes in my coffee.

Phones---charge cells and make sure you have at least one old fashion plug in phone as the portable landline phones don’t work if the power is out.

Not sure what we will do, we were planning on heading to Chincoteague, VA Saturday morning for a long Labor Day weekend. We will keep an eye on the situation and adjust our plans accordingly. Our place there has plenty of supplies, so I am comfortable heading down and seeing if we sustained any damage. If the storm were to move more westerly around the Maryland area, our team would likely be placed on alert, so my weekend plans may get changed anyway.

Pete

Anyone who's a fan of the TV series 'Burn Notice' would likely be somewhat intinidated by hurricane with that name. An angry Irish lass is not to be trifled with.

I have a bad feeling about Hurricane Earl. The projected track is remarkably similar to the 38 Long island express up until Earl makes a nice right hand turn of the Carolina Coast to shoot of into the north Atlantic according to the projected computer models.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtlUjK5-Fx4



Track of the 38 long Island Express.

Time to get the beers in for the worse case scenario planning.

I just realized I will be in Tampa from September 9-13. Greeeat. Oh well at least I've been through dozens of Cat 3 & 4's and at least one Super Typhoon (Cat 5+) while living in the south Pacific.

comms... bring a raincoat!

seems like an appropriate time to repost this:
http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/

I have a gut-feeling this thing is gonna ride right up the Chesapeake before cutting NE. The water temps are 5-6 degrees warmer in the Bay right now...ruhroh indeed. Least we don't have levee's...minimal flooding and downed trees. worst-case scenario would be no power for a bunch of folks, but ain't no one gonna starve in 3 days.


Interestingly, I JUST YESTERDAY scanned all my important documents onto a USB - not even thinking about the storm, haha.


Mr. Airballrad . . . I am also of the Harford County. You're voting for Gahler, right?

I'll probably pick up a few more cases of water tomorrow - I used 2 up this summer doing various outdoor activities. And I just bought 2 scepter gas cans, so I might as well fill them up. Of course, my spout is on the way from Canada (of all places). I suppose a funnel would be a good idea to grab too.

Top off the cars tomorrow or Thursday. Maybe inventory my batteries and re-charge the rechargables, grab a few fresh packs of AA and AAA if needed.

That's probably about it. The storm track isn't all that close, even the outer edge, though I'm only 60 miles from Outer banks. We'll probably get some rain and wind, though Weather.com has a suprisingly mundane forecast.

I realize a hurricane is no laughing matter, but it's hard to take a storm seriously when you name it "Earl."

I dunno... I associate that name with the "ogre" in Shrek.

The only place it is going to really hit is out on the Cape in MA. As I dont live there, and live pretty far inland, I am expecting rain, maybe power loss for a short term. Either way, I am ok-got plenty of water, and am going hiking this weekend anyway, so, if I lose power, I just start a day early .
Our local Emergency Management Agency has planned, in their words, to "orchestrate the chaos of the planned evacuation" of the cape. There is only one road off of it, and thats the evacuation road. Needless to say, they are advising residents to leave BEFORE the storm hits. They are more concerned with the day trippers.

Be prepared everyone. It always amazes me how many people don't have basic supplies. I do understand adding a few extras. When we have a big snowstorm they always have someone on that doesn't have gloves or a shovel etc.

Lots of data tracking Hurricane Earl.

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/tropical-storm-earl-2010

Even gives water temperatures along the East coast water with data from Sea Buoys. The waters seem to be extremely warm even off the coast of New York. Hurricane Earl also has an very low barometric pressure of 941mb i.e. only a few mb higher than the 38 Long Island express.

Lets hope the majority of the computer models are correct and Hurricane Earl veers of at the last moment (12 hrs make your mind up time if you live in New York to activate the BOB) and makes the impressive right hand turn into the Atlantic, otherwise there is still a Russian Roulettes chance that this fiction might become a reality.

http://www.landstrike.com/book.html

http://www.amazon.com/Landstrike-Ken-Bas...2110&sr=1-1

BTW, if New York is/was ever to face a Katrina like event (i.e. 20+ft storm surge), would there ever be a Mayor Bloomberg Mandatory Evacuation (get out of dodge) notice given to its residents considering that the emergency plan is one of 'shelter in place'?

I hope that the BAMS and BAMM computer model tracks are the correct ones, but again there is a huge variance in the individual Computer model tracks.
Even at 42 hrs from now

BAMS has Earl at 31.1N 72.9W
BAMM has Earl at 32.5N 72.5W

Where as NOGAPS (US Navy) has Earl at 39.0N 72.9W (approx around 120Nmi from New York)

This is a huge discrepancy between the BAMS and NOGAPS tracks at 42 hours of over 290 Nmi

The problem with these fast moving Hurricanes (as they track northward or northeast) is that it would appear that the consensus of computer model tracks shows that only approximately 12 to 18 hrs warning is available for high density urban populations on the east coast such as New York. You will have to wait a good 6 hours after Earl has passed Cape Hatteras to get a more reliable indication of whether Earl has begun to vector away into the North Atlantic.

When do you Bug out from New York?

e.g. 18hrs out with 10% probability of a direct hit
or 12hrs with a 50% probability or 6hrs with a 90% probability.

This is going to be a close one. The lives of many thousands of unprepared people could be reliant on a computer model.

Well, here in Suffolk, VA, Earl is a bust (IMHO).

They were predicting TS force winds, rain from 2-6am. Outside is a light drizzle, I didn't wake once overnight. I really don't think my condo has the best construction on the planet, so I assume it was a benign "kiss" as the hurricane rushed past.

Then again, I grew up in CA with the Santa Ana winds, so anything under a steady 45mph I probably ignore in my sleep.

MA is a bust too. By the time it hits the cape it will be 40 or so mph winds. And only 2" of rain overnight. Where I live, light rain only. It has now lost its eye, and may be barely a TS by the time it hits. The upside is, our governor staged emergency supplies & equipment in western MA, prepping for it. I dont agree with almost anytthing he does, but this was a good thing, getting FEMA in before the storm. Even if it turns out it isnt needed.

Looks like Western Long Island will be OK. Does not look like we'll even get upgraded beyond Tropical Storm Watch.

This storm will likely be less damaging than the Nor'easter we had earlier this year. That storm came with very little awareness amongst the public of how damaging it would be, whereas this time everyone has at least head about it on the news. From what I understand the power company had its ego bruised after the nor'easter, so they've got extra crews from the midwest staged and ready to go.

Got a look at the county 120-hour hurricane plan from the county EOC. Interesting stuff.

In other news, some idiot decided that yesterday evening would be a good time to go swimming in the Atlantic surf (which was impressive then, and will be moreso today). He got into trouble, and an off duty, 18-year old lifeguiard went in after him with no gear but her moxie and youthful bravado. She made a legit save, but took on a lot of water herself and nearly didn't make it out. I helped transport her to the ER, and I am still in awe of what she did (she weighed about 140, and the vic about 250!).

Folks, please don't do stupid stuff that puts others in jeopardy. When there's a hurricane off shore is not a great time to test your swimming ability.

They dropped that for Queens and Nassau around 7:30 this am - sigh, could have used some rain (they are now predicting a whopping 1/4" of rain here in Queens)

I grew up in NYC and weathered a few hurricanes. Unless the storm is projected to be far stronger than I'd expect that far North, bugging in is better than bugging out. Make sure you have plenty of water, food, batteries and booze.

One of the nice things about NYC is that most of the power lines are underground, so bad storms have much less effect on ConEd than other utilities.

If you are going to bug out of NYC, I'd suggest 24 hours minimum. It can be a nightmare to get out of the city during the Friday rush hour, forget about escaping during an actual mass exodus.

Long Island is positively nasty to get off of in the best of times. If I lived there I'd probably build a very sturdy above-ground storm shelter and tell my neighbors that it's a storage shed.

Wandering the web I found this interesting piece:
http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/most-vulnerable-hurricane-cities-1048/

And, worrying, the hurricanes may get stronger:
http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/how-strong-can-a-hurricane-get-0330/

There's still a lot of media buzz as Earl bears down on the Canadian maritime provinces. According to reports, most storms lose a lot of their steam as they hit cooler waters; but maybe not this time. (I can't really say; I live a long way from the ocean. But I remember the pics of Juan's aftermath; I was in Halifax a few weeks earlier.)

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Awes...7735/story.html