Quote:
I thought the chances of a major downturn seemed remote to nil at the time, just like everyone in the final stages of a mania, whether in real estate or tulip bulbs


One clue to imminent bursting of bubbles is to check the 'reverse magazine cover consensus'. Check out the magazine racks. If the majority of the glossy covers are talking about any boom, particularly if they use any version of the term 'sure thing', it is time to run away from whatever is being celebrated.

This has been reliable predictor. It worked before the internet bubble, the Enron failure, Milken's junk bond failure, the Y2K sag, and the housing bubble. Pretty much the timing of every bubble bursting has been predictable if you pay attention to the MSM and read the signs.

There is also the 'late night pitch' index. Generally any business offered as an investment or way to make money late at night is a clue that that market sector is about to suffer a setback.

All this comes down to one concept: If everyone is running in one direction it usually pays in the long run to get ready to move in the opposite direction. If you wish to 'ride the wave' and invest in a rapidly growing market keep an eye on the glossy mags, late night pitches, and all the other MSM sources and know that in the language of the clues is that up-is-down. As soon as the balance shift strongly positive it is read as a red flag. A sign that the boom is weakening and the trend may reverse and go into free-fall. It is a strong sign that it is time seriously consider bailing out.