Shortwave? Wow, people still listen to shortwave in this country? Don't get wrong, I love listening to radio. I'm just a little surprised.

Arney---Yup..almost every night and on a old Hallicrafters S38 that i recapped over the winter.picking up these stations with a bit of static sort of adds to the "shortwave" experience!

It would appear to be something of a poser as to why someone who spends a considerable portion of their waking hours ranting about how gold is 'real money' and that "fiat paper" will soon be worthless would trade gold they own for the fiat money that will surely, by their reckoning, have no value.

Either the guy selling the gold is exceptionally generous and self-sacrificing; or he knows something not immediately apparent.

Reminds me of the old "Miss Cleo" telephone psychic who claimed she could tell you the lottery numbers. The immediate question that came up was: If she knows the numbers why wouldn't she use that knowledge to win the lottery herself? Telling someone means that the prize will be divided. Seems odd that she would go against her own interests.

Gold is a commodity, a commodity with a lot of glittering romanticism and psychology behind it, but still a commodity. Not that much different from pork bellies or iron. As a commodity it is subject to cyclical forces, market manipulations, and irrational exuberance.

Yes, it you time it right and get lucky you can make some money. But it is not a sure thing. The fact remains that if you bought gold in 1980 you didn't break even until some time between 2005 and 2007. When exactly depends on the exact price paid, how much the deal gigs you for sales, and if you include inflation in your calculation.

Fact being that if I had invested thousands in gold in 1980 and just broke even in 2007 I would be selling it also just to get the non-performing investment off my books so I could buy something with an up side.

Hahaha! I remember her! I always wondered why she was willing to give out winning Lotto numbers for the price of a toll call. Wonder if she's based out of Nigerial?

The value of gold is just a shared illusion. Unlike a bushel of wheat, you can't eat it. Unlike a rifle you can't hunt with it. You can't power your tractor with it. If SHTF I'd rather have a basement full of freeze dried food, stabilized fuel and ammo than gold bars.

Not restricted to just gold, but anything really, is distinguishing the difference between a "bull run" in something and a bubble. I guess the fact that there are many of us saying that it's a bubble may mean that it's not truly a bubble yet, like a "mania". If it were, even I would be saying, "Yes, I know gold is high, but I think there's convincing arguments that it will keep going higher--much higher. I really, truly, honestly think that this time things are different, so I really need to buy more gold at whatever price I can get it for."

And I don't pretend to be an economic sage. I bought a house in 2007, just before the subprime bubble burst. I thought the chances of a major downturn seemed remote to nil at the time, just like everyone in the final stages of a mania, whether in real estate or tulip bulbs. How wrong I was!

I buy silver and gold as a hedge against inflation not as a survival tactic.

In a truly desperate situation no one will care about shiny pieces of metal, the only currency will be food, water, ammo and for a short time, fuel.

One clue to imminent bursting of bubbles is to check the 'reverse magazine cover consensus'. Check out the magazine racks. If the majority of the glossy covers are talking about any boom, particularly if they use any version of the term 'sure thing', it is time to run away from whatever is being celebrated.

This has been reliable predictor. It worked before the internet bubble, the Enron failure, Milken's junk bond failure, the Y2K sag, and the housing bubble. Pretty much the timing of every bubble bursting has been predictable if you pay attention to the MSM and read the signs.

There is also the 'late night pitch' index. Generally any business offered as an investment or way to make money late at night is a clue that that market sector is about to suffer a setback.

All this comes down to one concept: If everyone is running in one direction it usually pays in the long run to get ready to move in the opposite direction. If you wish to 'ride the wave' and invest in a rapidly growing market keep an eye on the glossy mags, late night pitches, and all the other MSM sources and know that in the language of the clues is that up-is-down. As soon as the balance shift strongly positive it is read as a red flag. A sign that the boom is weakening and the trend may reverse and go into free-fall. It is a strong sign that it is time seriously consider bailing out.

When the communists in Russia were sending agents abroad after the revolution, they found they had no easy way of moving money to their western agents, but plenty of jewellry from arrested capitalists. So female agents simply wore the jewellry openly and no one gave a second look. Arriving with bags of notes would have attracted attention.
I imagine geting your krugerands put on a chain would be cheap and unlike decorative jewellry, not lose 75% of it's value the moment you stepped out of the shop.
The Sock