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#202238 - 05/21/10 06:38 PM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: philip]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
Again, this just reminds me of the movie "Wargames". It is always best not to play. Baghdad taught me that in the worst case most of us just don't have the means to adequately prepare enough to change our outcome. If things get bad enough you have to rely on an arsenal to survive, you've already lost. I never heard one case in Iraq where an armed civilian was able to successfully defend himself or his family from a coordinated attack, and there were a lot of well armed civilians in Iraq in 2005! Heck, even the Army couldn't keep it up most of the time. The last thing we want is for any conflict to precipitate on home soil. The best defense is a good offense, and I fully expect the conflict will follow us home from Afganistan.

Lubbock will never be on any terrorists' hit list. I know, I am from there. It is a good place to be from, let me tell you.

_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

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#202239 - 05/21/10 07:05 PM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: Art_in_FL]
Ian Offline
Member

Registered: 05/15/07
Posts: 198
Loc: Scotland
What you all need is a risk register where you list the possible risks their likelihood and possible impact.

From there you list mitigation and prevention.

Have a look at:

Wiki entry

And

UK Risk Register

It does not take much to produce a professional document.


Edited by Ian (05/21/10 07:10 PM)

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#202275 - 05/22/10 02:50 AM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: benjammin]
philip Offline
Addict

Registered: 09/19/05
Posts: 639
Loc: San Francisco Bay Area
> Lubbock will never be on any terrorists' hit list. I know, I am from there.
> It is a good place to be from, let me tell you.

:-) I saw that play the do about the settlement of the area, and one line stuck with me: "You can see farther and see less than anywhere else on earth."

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#202278 - 05/22/10 07:21 AM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: philip]
adam2 Offline
Addict

Registered: 05/23/08
Posts: 483
Loc: Somerset UK
Several posts above refer to the likelyhood, or not, of needing to survive nuclear radiation, as pointed out this is extremely unlikely in most rural areas.
Possibly a risk in large urban areas, or near nuclear power plants.
I would urge anyone concerned to buy a geiger counter for detecting radiation, these cost a few hundred dollars.
Other precautions may, or may not be justified according to the perceived degree of risk. But without a geiger counter you wont know whether to run away, to hide, to use protective gear, or to carry on as normal.
Remember that danger from radiation is cumalative, a radiation level that is acceptable for a few minutes could kill you if prolonged.
Without a counter though you wont know.
Very basic precautions can increase your chances considerably, remember that the radiaton level inside a typical home will be about one tenth of that outside, simply staying indoors helps.
In a deep concrete basement the level will be about a hundredth of that outside.
Stocks of food, water, fuel etc. would reduce the dose received by going out to seek these supplies, and would of course be useful for other, and arguably more probable disasters.
Even a basic respirator gives considerable protection against inhaling radioactive particles, and is a usefull thing to have in case of chemical spills or fires upwind of you, which again are more probable.

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#202455 - 05/25/10 04:05 PM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: philip]
Woodsloafer Offline
Member

Registered: 04/24/05
Posts: 122
Loc: Upstate NewYork
Should someone point out there is no such thing as a "suitcase" nuke?
(Naw; why spoil his fun.)
_________________________
"There is nothing so frightening as ignorance in action."

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#202458 - 05/25/10 04:35 PM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: Woodsloafer]
philip Offline
Addict

Registered: 09/19/05
Posts: 639
Loc: San Francisco Bay Area
Not only are their suitcase nukes, but he swears the crater will be 20 miles in diameter. 20 miles. sigh. I pointed out photos of several kiloton atmospheric tests with soldiers closer than that watching the fireball, but he was unpersuaded.

I take his reference to suitcase nukes to be to these:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suitcase_nuke

But no way a 20-mile crater. _Crater_ of 20 miles. C'est la vie.

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#202459 - 05/25/10 04:35 PM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: Woodsloafer]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
Quote:
Should someone point out there is no such thing as a "suitcase" nuke?


Actually there is, its a derivative of the W54 nuclear warhead (which was very old 1950s technology). The possibility of hand held grenade sized nuclear demolition charges with yields up to 10-50 tonnes are thought to be possible using modern design technology.



http://youtube.com/watch?v=Pf6uX0hODuE


Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (05/25/10 04:48 PM)

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#202466 - 05/25/10 06:47 PM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
JBMat Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 745
Loc: NC
Anyone recall the "Davy Crockett"? Fired from a jeep mounted recoiless rifle. The blast radius was further than the range. Talk about fire and forget, how about fire and fry? There was no way the crew could escape the blast. Needless to say, it was mothballed fairly quickly.

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#202467 - 05/25/10 07:38 PM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: JBMat]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
The M-65 was just a little too man portable for the politicians on both sides, (Spetnazs weren't only carrying shovels wink ) which is why it was mothballed and the secret fourth protocol agreements of the NPT adhered to.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khyZI3RK2lE


Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (05/25/10 07:38 PM)

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#202476 - 05/25/10 10:13 PM Re: Worst-Case Thinking [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
Phaedrus Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 3165
Loc: Big Sky Country
I think my hometown would be about the last place in America that a terrorist would bother to strike. Guess that's one nice thing about living in the middle of nowhere. grin Of course, that doesn't stop Worst Case Thinking here. About five years ago we got a new courthouse, and it's a veritable fortress- bullet proof glass, a labyrinthine maze of hallways with mirrors and cameras, an array of scanners and metal detectors, etc etc. Ditto for the Sheriff's Office. It would take a Bradley vehicle or RPG to breach it! Some sensible precautions are wise but this smacks of outright paranoia...paid for with my tax money.
_________________________
“I'd rather have questions that cannot be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” —Richard Feynman

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