The "golden hordes" (Rawles) that you are referring to are certainly a consideration... I did get kinda thrown because you really digressed a lot into how "people ain't what they was". But now i think what you mean is that you don't want to be in the path of the golden hordes. Certainly that can be a part of it depending on the situation.

However, the golden hordes are more a factor when a single large event happens. I was saying that I think a "nonevent" is more likely, probably in the form of a very long recession, which wouldn't create the same kinda golden hordes that you would see from an "event".

In the event of a 15 year recession, you want to have a place that can sustain you as much as possible, maybe a farm like Russ is saying.

It really all depends on what you feel is "the most likely". A lot of popular survival fiction goes into the whole cannibalism stuff. I'm afraid what we'll be dealing with will be a lot less interesting than that...

This brings up another stress related question. In an event, you would expect self termination to be common. I wonder, if the stress of a 15 year gradual recession is enough to acutely raise the suicide rate, or if people can learn to live with less and adapt to a different MO.

Ignore the Illusion of Spring is an interesting read. This guy is "a deflationist". We'll see. He may be right in that initially we will have a period of deflation, but later inflation has got to step up.

Just my $.02, $.03, $.04. . .$2

I believe it did in Japan, though there are also cultural reasons for that.

fake edit: according to Wikipedia the Japanese economy has lead to a huge number of suicides.

-Blast

An interesting take on deficits, market capacity, and how things interact.

http://www.truthout.org/the-budget-deficit-crisis-crisis56749

Well, I for one am looking forward to the day when Keynesianism takes its rightful place on the ash-heap of history right on top of Collectivism and Feng Shui.

As the article points out, the left thinks the stimulus was too small and the right thinks it was too big. Please note that no one thinks the goverment got it right!

As I see it the bail-outs have prevented the capitulation that is needed before the economy can really rebound. Wall Street's bad moves were rewarded with major government bail-outs, so they are doing the same thing over again. That's what happens when you reward bad behavior. (When your new puppy chews your shoes do you say "good boy" and give him a treat? Only if you like going barefoot.) Companies and institutions that should have gone bankrupt were instead propped up on the taxpayer's dime. At this rate we'll all be barefoot soon.

Word I have (third hand -- RE broker > investment broker > me) is that within a couple months we'll see commercial real-estate take a major hit and then look for a follow-on residential crunch -- apparently bills are coming due. Everyone looked at their calendars and expected it to be over by now; it's not over.

"...I for one am looking forward to the day when Keynesianism takes its rightful place on the ash-heap of history..."

AMEN!

"Wall Street's bad moves were rewarded with major government bail-outs, so they are doing the same thing over again... Companies and institutions that should have gone bankrupt were instead propped up on the taxpayer's dime."

Their attitude was (and still is) that if someone has to pay, it would either be Wall Street and the Banking industry, or all us little people. The decision was made.

And NO, it's NOT over.

Sue

It seems so strange to me. We are quite clearly being betrayed by elected officials, banks, and, god help us, toyota. We are a prodigiously well-armed populace, well-informed, with communication capabilities that previous generations could not imagine. Where is the populist revolt? Why aren't we seeing a replay of the french revolution?

Alas, I fear that won't happen as long as progressive/liberal types believe that as 'post modern' humans one evolutionary rung above us God fearing, gun toting, mud sloggers, they are duty bound to protect us from our base instincts and impulses.