You are very welcome, Susan, and thank you.

I've been going back over my photo files, cropping some and deleting others (I've taken well over 2000) and marveling still at how intense the Wednesday blizzard was.

In 5 weeks it will officially be spring!

"In 5 weeks it will officially be spring!"

Punxsutawney Phil went back to bed. Your local groundhog may have done the same thing, you just didn't notice!

Sue

Ole phil is only right 39% of the time. That puts him in about the same category as Mistress Cleo or my daily horoscope...

From what I have heard in MN is that in the Mpls. metro and all points North, snowfall has been about average (give or take an inch or two).

Though actual snow cover is above average due to heavy early season snowfalls.

And has someone else already pointed out - the Red River Valley (MN/ND border area) is prepping for spring flooding. Though those poor folks seem to have trouble up that way often.

Lake levels in NE MN have been below normal for the past few years. I think folks up that way are pleased with the snow cover and see it as helping. I know my folks are happy about it.

"Ole phil is only right 39% of the time. That puts him in about the same category as Mistress Cleo or my daily horoscope..."

And about 4% higher than most meteorologists.

One of our TV guys predicted 26F and rain.

Sue

Pups had another fun Snow Bowl today. Enough snow was falling to be pretty but not enough to be messy.

Weather forecasts have gotten quite a bit better since 1980 or so and are still improving. The DC snowstorm is a good example: the forecasts were sufficiently reliable for everyone to dedicate considerable resources to preparations well ahead of time. With hurricane Katrina there was pressure to order mandatory evacuations *3 days* before landfall. Neither would have been credible so far in advance 30 years ago.

*Climate* forecasting is still a rough area: by this I mean predicting a season's general trends (rainy/dry, cold/hot) ahead of time. Yet even here progress is seen: NWS correctly predicted last summer that it would be a wet winter in my area. Hurricane season forecasts don't seem to have gotten much better in the last decade, yet overall the field is a lot better than it used to be: 30 years ago you might have asked a meteorologist what dowsing rod he used in predicting a wet winter during a bone-dry summer.

My NWS office web page publishes a "Forecast Discussion" giving the basic reasoning behind a forecast and describing the situation in better detail than the rigid NWS format required for official forecasts. I generally skip the formal forecast entirely and go straight to the forecaster's commentary.

I guess my thesis here is that modern weather forecasts are reliable to the point of shaping preparations for activities. If forecasts show a front passing near a mountain maybe you shouldn't climb that day even if the airplane ticket is already paid, etc. Weather forecasts should be a basis for action and not merely passively collected as part of preparations.

I've got a M.Sci in Meteorology and have done 4 years as a weather forecaster. James V.A. has it right



Such forecasts are highly successful and useful tools in the tropics - and has been for years. Although seasonal forecasts for mid-latitude areas have improved, there is still much left before they are reliable enough to be useful. Such as the absolute failure to predict the cold winter weather we've had this year in Northern Europe. (January was supposed to be slightly warmer than average - and wet. Instead we've got record breaking low temperatures.)



Yes - and that works both ways: Finding a "window" where conditions are good for what you want to do.

Of course it makes sense to be prepared for foul weather anyway. Particular in the mountains local conditions can differ quite a bit for the general area.

I can certainly attest to the improved forecast accuracy for the Washington, D.C. area. Those who are responsible are unsung heroes.

Twenty years ago, my first winter in DC, I was caught unprepared when forecasts for a "dusting" turned into more than a foot. That was the winter that prompted the DC Metro (subway) system to put heaters on the power rails.

The first instance left me stranded on a snow-covered road, wearing flats and nylons, after our bus jackknifed and forced all us passengers off. Took six hours to travel 7 miles that day. A driver took pity on me walking along the road and gave me a lift for the final stretch, just as curling up in a snowbank was seeming inviting.

For the next decade I never again trusted a forecast. It had the benefit of motivating me to keep seasonally-appropriate gear at the office - a habit I continue though the forecasts have become much, much more reliable.

At least you learned. How many people do you know that would (or have) find themselves again in the same predicament?

Sue