Well, no. The problem with the term 'Worst case scenario' is that its factually incorrect. Yes, its very, very bad, but could it have been worse? Yes. Much.

When planning perhaps the term " very bad case" leaves room for some error.

On the subject of aerial resupply there does seem to be trouble with the helicopters flying in supplies. It is mostly due to them not having anywhere to safely land without undue hazard to people on the ground or the aircrews themselves. I am very hopeful that there will soon be an influx of civilian heavy helicopters that are set up for long-line delivery of loads.

Most military helicopters, nor the crews, are set up for/trained to accomplish accurate long-line delivery. They are for a short 20' line but you still need lots of clear space. By using a 100' or longer line the aircraft never needs to land at the pickup or delivery area and can place a load in a very tight area, even the back of a truck. A small area would be much easier to secure and then fill up with multiple slingloads of water, food, and supplies for distribution.

This method would save a lot of time and drastically reduce the need for tedious and dangerous convoys. It is also much faster for the crews to just release the remote hook at the bottom of the line and let the ground folks distribute from the load rather than have the aircraft idle on the ground, risking numerous people, while lines of people pass individual cases of goods off the aircraft.

The same is true from the beginning, you don't need to load the helicopter item by item. A team of people can rig a palletized load for air transport in minutes. Many of the supplies are already palletized when they come off a plane or ship.

As far as I can tell there are no civilian helicopters headed there yet for external load work. I hope and pray that someone gets their act together and gets the ball rolling, and quick.

I'm packed and ready.

One problem with helicopters is that they require a tremendous amount of maintenance - this isn't a truck that might need an oil change after a few months, but rather a machine that's going to spend significant time at the shop *every* *week* at these usage levels. It would be even worse in a harsher desert climate due to sand, perhaps spending more than 50% of time in the shop.

This is the biggest advantage to having an amphibious assault group around: they have the ability to maintain large numbers of helicopters, while at sea, for a long period of time.

In Haiti bringing in large numbers of helicopters for distribution efforts starts a clock ticking: within a week you're going to need to divert incoming supplies from food & water to maintenance crews, tools & parts.

An interesting post, Awayagain.

I'm just curious, but how would civilian helicopters get to Haiti? I don't expect to see the US Navy giving a bunch of civilian helicopters a lift to Port Au Prince. Transported on cargo ships? Or is Haiti close enough to fly to directly for these birds?

For anyone interested here's a blog from a doctor in Haiti with graphic photos at the bottom. Interesting example of people using whatever is available to do what needs to be done. Almost unbelievable that in 2009 they had to resort to booze and a hacksaw. Wow.

Oh, I just remembered something Lt. Gen. Honore' said, that local governments (like state) plan for the best-case scenario, and then wonder why they get into trouble when hit with a worst-case situation.

He said governors deals with impending disasters like this: "We can handle it. We can handle it. We're fine... Oh, SH**!!! HELP!"

That isn't a plan.that's wishful thinking, and has nothing to do with real life.

Sue

Graphic photos from haiti six days after the quake:
Haiti: Six Days Later

The one of the doctor using a hacksaw to amputate a woman's leg really brought home what Hell they are currently in...especially when you realize they ran out of anethesia and pain killers days ago...

It's like doing medicine back in the Civil War.

-Blast

There is some horrible imagery in there.

I hope the rescuers/military can settle things down soon and get help to those who need it most.

In reference to the earlier comments on this thread about the Belgians. It's been my experience that doctors and nurses who travel to these disaster zones are very compassionate people - and they work tremendously hard. In fact, the biggest problem usually is that they tend to overwork themselves ... and eventually become exhausted. So as a rule - humanitarian teams don't decide to leave patients behind in am emergency.

Therefore, it's a pretty good bet that whatever factors alarmed the Belgians, they must have been very concerned about the safety of their volunteers. It is tough working in these third world environments. There are always some "bad actors" out there on the streets. Haiti has got some very bad gangs. The Belgian team did pretty well by trying to set up shop in a poor area of Port au Prince.

I maintain a rule with my own teams that I will never allow people to be working in questionable areas after dark - in the third world. It's usually a recipe for crime and disaster.

I think what really went wrong is that there was a fundamental breakdown in security. The Belgians were overly optimistic that they could handle the situation, and they just did not have the kind of security they needed to really operate in that kind of environment. Hopefully ... the arrival of US marines will go a long way towards sorting out the safety situation in Haiti's capital.

And I agree with Sheriff Blast - things are getting pretty grim when victims must go through amputations with just alcohol and a saw.

other Pete

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2010/01/20/intv.keen.holmes.cnn?hpt=T2

Apparently an additional 20,000 Haitians are now dying now every day according to NGOS due to the lack of Medical supplies/Field Hospitals and medical staff that have been given a low priority to gaining access to the Haitian capital via the airfield.

Also looking at the photos now coming out of Haiti, starvation will soon start to take effect within the next 7 days. After 7 days the Haitians in the photographs are now noticeably thinner.

If the controlling authorities cannot even prioritise medical aid flights within the first 7 days over political photo opportunities then I don't actually have much hope that they will be able to cope with the next relief effort crisis of a starving population. No doubt the media will start to concentrate on the so called 'looting' activities of the desperate and starving Haitians as an excuse that 'we can't do anything until these folks start to behave.'