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#193507 - 01/14/10 05:55 PM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
JohnE Offline
Addict

Registered: 06/10/08
Posts: 601
Loc: Southern Cal
I was referring to making jokes and hoping for 8.0 magnitude earthquakes to occur.


_________________________
JohnE

"and all the lousy little poets
comin round
tryin' to sound like Charlie Manson"

The Future/Leonard Cohen


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#193561 - 01/14/10 11:42 PM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: JohnE]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
I'm not making any prediction, beyond the obvious one:(somewhere, sometime, something will happen) but the Caribbean plate does jut into the fault that gives the west coast so much excitement.

http://www.countrywatch.com/imgs/global_thematic/Tectonic_Plates.gif

It isn't so much that the plate tectonics isn't a interactive system where movement of one part can't trigger changes in another. My doubt is centered on people's ability to understand this chaotic and noisy system and make reliable predictions.


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#193566 - 01/15/10 12:35 AM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: JohnE]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
No jokes, and certainly not hoping for any such thing. Rather, it is make the point that such things happen; it is inevitable that they will, and it shouldn't matter the when or the where. We should be prepared regardless of the time and place. In adding my prediction, I am pointing out that the specifics are meaningless once you are aware of the perpetual risk and take steps to mitigate it proactively.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

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#193576 - 01/15/10 03:14 AM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: benjammin]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2851
Loc: La-USA
Jim Berklund of Orange County, Los Angeles, Ca is now a retired Geologist, who worked for Orange County. He is a very accurate earthquake predictor.

His system is simple, he counts the number of Lost Pets ads in the paper everyday. When he notes a dramatic increase in "Lost" ads, he looks at where the various animals were lost at, area wise. That tells him where an earthquake is about to occur and how strong the earthquake will be.

Item to note: all those critters (sea lions???) that took over Pier 39 in San Francisco, have suddenly got up and left to parts unknown. I'm glad I don't live in San Francisco or anywhere thereabouts, right now.....
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#193580 - 01/15/10 03:48 AM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: wildman800]
Mtnmom5 Offline
Stranger

Registered: 01/15/10
Posts: 3
Loc: Montana
Oh boy, I have a son living in San Jose...

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#193941 - 01/19/10 11:12 PM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: Susan]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078

From the Great Californian Earthquake of 1857. Perhaps Californians should keep a watchfull eye out for an unusual or new dusty white fog as well.

The 12 days of rain also grabbed my attention as well. wink


Quote:
The first shock started at 8 in the morning and lasted between 80 and 90 seconds.
It began very gently, became strong, and was a little less strong when it ended. The
ground immediately around us seemed to shake violently like a cradle rocking. Only
rarely do earthquakes last so long and have such strange motions. The water standing
in pools was thrown about and splashed over their edges. The water in the ditches
around the village was also thrown about and over the banks, and from being crystal
clear became thick with mud. Dogs howled and the beasts stood like statues while
flocks of startled birds flew shrieking from south to north as if moved by an invisible
force. The people fled into the streets; many could not stand and in terror fell to their
knees and cried out, "Lord have mercy". The houses cracked and if they did not have
light roof's of asphalt would have fallen in, which would have made this earthquake as
destructive as the one in San Salvador in Central America. Many people were nause-
ated. Along the banks of the creek near here the earthquake has produced long open
cracks of varying width. A few minutes after 8 there was another earthquake, which
lasted for a short time. At 11 at night there was a third shock which lasted 4 seconds;
during the night three more were felt, making a total of six that were noticed by most
people. There is also another phenomenon. From the first shock at 10 A.M. until five
P.M. the earth has been moving constantly, though it has required close attention to
notice this. There have certainly been more than a few periods, up to 20 minutes long,
of almost imperceptible earthquakes. It seemed as though the Earth, tired of suffering
our sins, was shaking herself free of us as birds shake off' what disturbs their feathers.

The day before the shock the clouds collided with each other, as if in aerial combat.
One lady, seeing this, predicted that something was about to happen in the earth. Even
the cocks' crows have seemed prophetic. For the last four or six weeks we have seen
a new kind of white and dusty fog that has never appeared before. Some people who
have spent time in it say that it stays in one's hair like flour or ashes. If I am not
mistaken, some silent air currents have been passing over us, which have influenced
even if they have not caused these earthquakes.

We hope these phenomena will be studied by naturalists. They should bear in mind
that last winter (1855-56) there was so little rain that the fields were not covered with
vegetation, and that this winter was very late, the first rains not falling until December
28 instead of October or November as is usual. There is reason to believe that in this
region the Earth's surface is underlain by layers, or perhaps deep streams, or great
pits of asphalt, as is shown by the springs and seeps of this mineral found in this area.
The earthquakes began after 12 days of rain (counting from December 28th to the 8th
of this month), as if they had been produced by an alteration of the elements, the long
drought being ended by the rains.

On the night of the 9th and 10th, three more shocks were felt, though all were brief.
The aspect of things remained threatening.

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#193946 - 01/20/10 12:31 AM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Voodoo science, pure and simple.

And, yes, there will be major earthquakes in the future...
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

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#193947 - 01/20/10 12:52 AM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: hikermor]
bws48 Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/18/07
Posts: 831
Loc: Anne Arundel County, Maryland
There does seem to be something that animals can sense; if we could figure out what it is, it might help us in our predictions. The video of Sophie the dog running out of the room about 15 seconds before the earthquake sure impressed me. 15 seconds doesn't sound like much, but she was out of the room by the time it struck.

If you missed the video, try this link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MFzcl-kZHo
"Sophie the dog senses earthquake in Eureka at the Times-Standard"
_________________________
"Better is the enemy of good enough."

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#193958 - 01/20/10 02:10 AM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: bws48]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
Quote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MFzcl-kZHo
"Sophie the dog senses earthquake in Eureka at the Times-Standard"


It might be that Sophie could have sensed the P wave arrival before the more destructive S wave.

Quote:
A quick way to determine the distance from a location to the origin of a seismic wave less than 200 km away is to take the difference in arrival time of the P wave and the S wave in seconds and multiply by 8 kilometers per second. Modern seismic arrays use more complicated earthquake location techniques


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_wave

Assumminig the 8km/second and the epicentre of the Eureka Earthquake was 70km away

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_rha1.html

then the time difference would be around 9 seconds between the P wave and S wave arrival times.

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#194041 - 01/21/10 01:34 AM Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
And then there is the big daddy of them all, Yellowstone and the recent earthquake swarm. Not a prediction but a good read and a discussion of an issue to keep an eye on.

http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/01/more_on_the_january_2010_yello.php

http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/01/wednesday_whatzits_yellowstone_1.php

To keep an eye on with scores of other issues. The second link includes a link to several informative sites. This and other issues point out the need to plan, learn, train, and prepare and help others do the same. But also to stay frosty and to avoid feeding panic and or passing rumors.

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