#193366 - 01/13/10 03:11 AM
'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
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Geezer
Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
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Maybe an iffy source, but... "Earthquake Warning for Northern California and Oregon" 'Following the recent significant earthquake off Eureka, California last week, there is a moderately higher probability of a much stronger quake along the San Andreas fault between San Francisco and Oregon in the next two weeks. According to Jack Coles, an earthquake forecaster, the recent series of quakes, including the 6.5 shaker off the Coast are possibly fore-shocks of something bigger yet to come.' Before it's news I've never heard of Jack Coles Sue
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#193373 - 01/13/10 05:11 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Susan]
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Member
Registered: 02/02/08
Posts: 146
Loc: Washington
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I've heard of the guy and supposedly he is right sometimes. But even a broken clock is right twice a day... We will see in the next two weeks, I guess.
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#193374 - 01/13/10 06:37 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Tarzan]
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Addict
Registered: 06/10/08
Posts: 601
Loc: Southern Cal
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Did he predict what happened in Haiti today?
Didn't think so...
Predicting that an earthquake might be followed by another earthquake is sort like predicting the ground is gonna get wet after it rains.
_________________________
JohnE
"and all the lousy little poets comin round tryin' to sound like Charlie Manson"
The Future/Leonard Cohen
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#193390 - 01/13/10 03:06 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Blast]
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Addict
Registered: 09/13/07
Posts: 449
Loc: Texas
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He didn't get a false negative, i.e., predicted no earthquake for Haiti. That's very different from no prediction at all. Moreover, if he really does do prediction you'd expect to actually focus on specific areas, and Haiti isn't likely to have be an area of investigation.
No cites of published work. No reference to methodology or research. No error bars given for incredibly precise predictions (54% this, 64% that). The bogo meter is going off loudly here.
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#193445 - 01/13/10 10:24 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: James_Van_Artsdalen]
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Pooh-Bah
Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
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On one hand, looking at this guys previous predictions, specifically his forecast page, I'm underwhelmed. Lots of the faults in the US southwest and west are statistically overdue. So make a prediction, pretty much any vaguely worded prediction, and there is some chance it will be 'true' if you squint your eyes enough.
On the other hand, just because someone makes a prediction based on smoke doesn't mean an earthquake isn't going to happen some time soon. IMO a certain level of watchful alertness and well rounded preparedness will prove helpful either way. No matter what does or doesn't happen.
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#193448 - 01/13/10 10:54 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Art_in_FL]
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Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
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I'm no geologist or seismologist or anything like that, but here's my go at it. Let's see if I even get close:
I predict that before the end of the month, there will be an earthquake along the California Coast of at least magnitude 8.
Well, one can at least hope...LOL
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools. -- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)
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#193471 - 01/14/10 06:38 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
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Addict
Registered: 06/10/08
Posts: 601
Loc: Southern Cal
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Unbelievable...
_________________________
JohnE
"and all the lousy little poets comin round tryin' to sound like Charlie Manson"
The Future/Leonard Cohen
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#193503 - 01/14/10 05:39 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: JohnE]
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
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I don't think its unbelievable, just that the prediction has a very very small probability of occurring with such a precise prediction. Widen the bounds of the prediction and the prediction becomes more probable, but with less actual usefulness in making it worthwhile to publish a warning to the public. Saying a large earthquake will occur in the next 20 years somewhere in California is just as pointless even though the probability of making that prediction is very probable. There has been a case made for something called 'Earthquake storms' though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_stormBut whether this can be applied to global scale is highly debatable. But it might still be worthwhile looking out for domestic and wild disappearing/nervous animals i.e. The local newspaper lost pet columns have increased dramatically and poor SW reception due to increased noise, poor or strange GPS wandering/accuracy specifically due to ionospheric errors and strange cloud formations which have unusual colours. Watching the reaction of the tourists on the beach during the boxing day tsunami is a case in point. It took a long time for the penny to drop for many of the tourists to react to the sea draining away/disappearing in front of their eyes.
Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (01/14/10 05:41 PM)
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#193507 - 01/14/10 05:55 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
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Addict
Registered: 06/10/08
Posts: 601
Loc: Southern Cal
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I was referring to making jokes and hoping for 8.0 magnitude earthquakes to occur.
_________________________
JohnE
"and all the lousy little poets comin round tryin' to sound like Charlie Manson"
The Future/Leonard Cohen
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#193561 - 01/14/10 11:42 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: JohnE]
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Pooh-Bah
Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
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I'm not making any prediction, beyond the obvious one:(somewhere, sometime, something will happen) but the Caribbean plate does jut into the fault that gives the west coast so much excitement. http://www.countrywatch.com/imgs/global_thematic/Tectonic_Plates.gifIt isn't so much that the plate tectonics isn't a interactive system where movement of one part can't trigger changes in another. My doubt is centered on people's ability to understand this chaotic and noisy system and make reliable predictions.
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#193566 - 01/15/10 12:35 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: JohnE]
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Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
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No jokes, and certainly not hoping for any such thing. Rather, it is make the point that such things happen; it is inevitable that they will, and it shouldn't matter the when or the where. We should be prepared regardless of the time and place. In adding my prediction, I am pointing out that the specifics are meaningless once you are aware of the perpetual risk and take steps to mitigate it proactively.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools. -- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)
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#193576 - 01/15/10 03:14 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: benjammin]
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2851
Loc: La-USA
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Jim Berklund of Orange County, Los Angeles, Ca is now a retired Geologist, who worked for Orange County. He is a very accurate earthquake predictor.
His system is simple, he counts the number of Lost Pets ads in the paper everyday. When he notes a dramatic increase in "Lost" ads, he looks at where the various animals were lost at, area wise. That tells him where an earthquake is about to occur and how strong the earthquake will be.
Item to note: all those critters (sea lions???) that took over Pier 39 in San Francisco, have suddenly got up and left to parts unknown. I'm glad I don't live in San Francisco or anywhere thereabouts, right now.....
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret) The best luck is what you make yourself!
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#193580 - 01/15/10 03:48 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: wildman800]
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Stranger
Registered: 01/15/10
Posts: 3
Loc: Montana
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Oh boy, I have a son living in San Jose...
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#193941 - 01/19/10 11:12 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Susan]
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
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From the Great Californian Earthquake of 1857. Perhaps Californians should keep a watchfull eye out for an unusual or new dusty white fog as well. The 12 days of rain also grabbed my attention as well. The first shock started at 8 in the morning and lasted between 80 and 90 seconds. It began very gently, became strong, and was a little less strong when it ended. The ground immediately around us seemed to shake violently like a cradle rocking. Only rarely do earthquakes last so long and have such strange motions. The water standing in pools was thrown about and splashed over their edges. The water in the ditches around the village was also thrown about and over the banks, and from being crystal clear became thick with mud. Dogs howled and the beasts stood like statues while flocks of startled birds flew shrieking from south to north as if moved by an invisible force. The people fled into the streets; many could not stand and in terror fell to their knees and cried out, "Lord have mercy". The houses cracked and if they did not have light roof's of asphalt would have fallen in, which would have made this earthquake as destructive as the one in San Salvador in Central America. Many people were nause- ated. Along the banks of the creek near here the earthquake has produced long open cracks of varying width. A few minutes after 8 there was another earthquake, which lasted for a short time. At 11 at night there was a third shock which lasted 4 seconds; during the night three more were felt, making a total of six that were noticed by most people. There is also another phenomenon. From the first shock at 10 A.M. until five P.M. the earth has been moving constantly, though it has required close attention to notice this. There have certainly been more than a few periods, up to 20 minutes long, of almost imperceptible earthquakes. It seemed as though the Earth, tired of suffering our sins, was shaking herself free of us as birds shake off' what disturbs their feathers.
The day before the shock the clouds collided with each other, as if in aerial combat. One lady, seeing this, predicted that something was about to happen in the earth. Even the cocks' crows have seemed prophetic. For the last four or six weeks we have seen a new kind of white and dusty fog that has never appeared before. Some people who have spent time in it say that it stays in one's hair like flour or ashes. If I am not mistaken, some silent air currents have been passing over us, which have influenced even if they have not caused these earthquakes.
We hope these phenomena will be studied by naturalists. They should bear in mind that last winter (1855-56) there was so little rain that the fields were not covered with vegetation, and that this winter was very late, the first rains not falling until December 28 instead of October or November as is usual. There is reason to believe that in this region the Earth's surface is underlain by layers, or perhaps deep streams, or great pits of asphalt, as is shown by the springs and seeps of this mineral found in this area. The earthquakes began after 12 days of rain (counting from December 28th to the 8th of this month), as if they had been produced by an alteration of the elements, the long drought being ended by the rains.
On the night of the 9th and 10th, three more shocks were felt, though all were brief. The aspect of things remained threatening.
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#193946 - 01/20/10 12:31 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
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Geezer in Chief
Geezer
Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
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Voodoo science, pure and simple.
And, yes, there will be major earthquakes in the future...
_________________________
Geezer in Chief
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#193947 - 01/20/10 12:52 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: hikermor]
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Old Hand
Registered: 08/18/07
Posts: 831
Loc: Anne Arundel County, Maryland
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There does seem to be something that animals can sense; if we could figure out what it is, it might help us in our predictions. The video of Sophie the dog running out of the room about 15 seconds before the earthquake sure impressed me. 15 seconds doesn't sound like much, but she was out of the room by the time it struck. If you missed the video, try this link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MFzcl-kZHo"Sophie the dog senses earthquake in Eureka at the Times-Standard"
_________________________
"Better is the enemy of good enough."
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#193958 - 01/20/10 02:10 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: bws48]
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
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It might be that Sophie could have sensed the P wave arrival before the more destructive S wave. A quick way to determine the distance from a location to the origin of a seismic wave less than 200 km away is to take the difference in arrival time of the P wave and the S wave in seconds and multiply by 8 kilometers per second. Modern seismic arrays use more complicated earthquake location techniques http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_waveAssumminig the 8km/second and the epicentre of the Eureka Earthquake was 70km away http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_rha1.htmlthen the time difference would be around 9 seconds between the P wave and S wave arrival times.
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#194073 - 01/21/10 01:14 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Art_in_FL]
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Geezer
Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
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. . .stay frosty and to avoid feeding panic and or passing rumors. That last bit deserved repeating. Sometimes I find myself getting caught up in the stuff (being polite here) that passes for information on the web. It's always good to step back and ask whether the info makes sense and to consider the time frames the earth works with. Anyone can make a prediction that sometime in the next millennium there might be a major volcanic eruption that could end all life on Earth -- anything is possible. But what does that mean to us as we prepare? Not much. Make preparations for likely events: hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, tornadoes in the mid-west, earthquakes along the major faults, rain in California. . . None of these are end of time scenarios, they're real events that anyone can justify making necessary preparations.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough. Okay, what’s your point??
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#194075 - 01/21/10 01:32 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Russ]
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Geezer in Chief
Geezer
Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
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Make preparations for likely events: hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, tornadoes in the mid-west, earthquakes along the major faults, rain in California. . .:o None of these are end of time scenarios, they're real events that anyone can justify making necessary preparations.
The rain here in California has washed out a construction project in our neighborhood, creating a sinkhole at a nearby intersection, and interrupting our water supply. This makes for a nice training exercise. I am collecting gutter runoff for gray water applications and digging out our stash of bottled water. Utility workers have hooked us up temporarily, but I have found that we have water pressure in sink faucets, but not from the showerheads... When the DW and DD arise, they will have their choice of a Sunshower or a waterless shower/hair wash kit I purchased from Brigade Quartermaster a few years ago. It will make for some interesting experiments and learning experiences. All of this should help us cope when we have a real emergency, like a significant earthquake.
_________________________
Geezer in Chief
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#194100 - 01/21/10 07:50 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: hikermor]
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Geezer
Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
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"When the DW and DD arise, they will have their choice of a Sunshower or a waterless shower/hair wash kit ..."
Don't forget the simple little bird-bath: a coffee-spoon of baking soda in a half-gallon of warm water. It cleans very well (esp body oil and odor), is neutral and easy on the skin, needs no rinsing (unless you've added too much soda), and can be applied with a washcloth or sponge.
Sue
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#194102 - 01/21/10 08:10 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Susan]
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Geezer
Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
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Another reason to keep baking soda in stock.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough. Okay, what’s your point??
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#194105 - 01/21/10 10:03 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Art_in_FL]
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
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And then there is the big daddy of them all, Yellowstone and the recent earthquake swarm. Not a prediction but a good read and a discussion of an issue to keep an eye on. I don't really keep an eye on the Yellowstone Caldera simply because if the cork pops it really is just simply the end of the world (this would be a TEOTWAWKI in which no level of preparedness would be useful), although this link is a little disconcerting. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.phpThe depths Earthquakes of 8.9 Km is just where the magma bubble depth boundary is located. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wrhcvA0n3A'Old Faithful' could well be where the cork pops.
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#194124 - 01/22/10 03:55 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Susan]
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Pooh-Bah
Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
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"When the DW and DD arise, they will have their choice of a Sunshower or a waterless shower/hair wash kit ..." Don't forget the simple little bird-bath: a coffee-spoon of baking soda in a half-gallon of warm water. It cleans very well (esp body oil and odor), is neutral and easy on the skin, needs no rinsing (unless you've added too much soda), and can be applied with a washcloth or sponge. Sue Interesting. I don't recall ever having hear that formula before. I've been around a few years and I'm still picking up handy tips. Thanks.
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#194127 - 01/22/10 04:12 AM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
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Pooh-Bah
Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
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I don't really keep an eye on the Yellowstone Caldera simply because if the cork pops it really is just simply the end of the world (this would be a TEOTWAWKI in which no level of preparedness would be useful), although this link is a little disconcerting.
I guess it all depends on how close you are. And which way the wind is blowing. One wag suggested that people close to Yellowstone might surf the pyroplastic flow, all the way to the gulf of Mexico. Up side is that if you make it you have one hell of a story to tell the grand kids. There I was ...
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#194204 - 01/23/10 06:59 PM
Re: 'Significant' quake in CA may be a foreshock
[Re: Susan]
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Addict
Registered: 08/14/05
Posts: 601
Loc: FL, USA
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I am begining to believe that everything East of the San Andreas will plunge into the Atlantic.....lol.
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