Danger: Fire. Bug-in marina, berth, and boat could be destroyed. Utilities could be disrupted or supplies unavailable beyond bug-in capability.

Data to monitor:

1.Fire start location reports in media and on Internet, if available.
2.Visible fire data.
3.Wind direction and strength reports and forecasts.
4.Success of fire suppression efforts.
5.Road and water travel restrictions.
6.Bug-in supplies.
7.Re-supply disruption reports, ditto above.
8.Communication disruptions.
9.Evacuation center locations.

Known limitations:

1.Boat sails or motors no faster than 10 mph in the best of conditions.
2.Road out crosses two islands below sea level and one bridge between islands.
3.Freeway is about 4 miles away and is elevated.
4.Levee road at marina is elevated, and in th opposite direction from the freeway crosse a bridge / slough onto another islane, that has a ferry across to yet another island.

Bug-in / other preparations of note if distant threatening fire:

1.Extra mooring ropes and boat bumpers between boat and marina dock.
2.Extra fresh supplies in boat and car.
3.Gas fill-up of car.
4.Fill boat diesel tank and spare container.

Bug-out?

1.By car if fire is close, but not located to cut off evacuation road.
2.By car if levee failure threatens to burn marina, berth, or boat.
3.By car if fire results in boat becoming uninhabitable somehow.
4.By boat if fire blocks access to freeway for time extended beyond supplies.
5.By boat if fire destroys nearby supply sources or renders them unreachable by car for a period of time that threatens re-supply.

I am sure that the fact that we maintain an interest in this forum indicates that we are indeed planning for potential problems and taking reasonable efforts to enable as many options as possible. In the event, however, we often (usually?) must make decisions with far less than full, or. indeed, adequate information. Planning is good, but it can reach a point of diminishing returns.

If I do decide to exit from an impending situation, I would incline to do so early rather than later - avoidance of crowds and gridlock is a real concern here. We always hear sad stories about folks who temporized and tried to leave too late. I can't recall nearly so many tales about those who fled too early. There are consequences for leaving too early - typically disruption of one's affairs and various inconveniences, but those are preferable to injury or loss of life, the real possibilities of exiting too late from a significant disaster.

I would like to raise another issue. With respect to tsunamis, the procedure here (Ventura, CA,with a more open coast) is to put to sea with all due haste and seek open water. Safe waters are reachable in about two hours. In fact,our vessels have done so in the past when tsunami alerts have been issued for our area. Your situation in the Bay area is radically different. What kind of advance warning do you need to reach open water from your dock?

After following the this for a while here is my take on things. This is very threat dependent and here in the midwest some threats are very low order of probability and/or they will make the choice for you (i.e. you won't have a home to stay in). I have a son with some special needs (dietary and medical) so plan to bail out early in nearly any scenario where running makes sense.

I think Sue did a great job identifying most the basic threats so I'll "borrow" them.


Wildfire or firestorm - Not very likely but if we ever did have a (really, really) old fashioned prairie fire I would be leaving very early. Dried crops (corn,wheat, soybeans) burn amazingly fast.

Flooding - been there, done that, no need to evacuate even at amazing record high flood levels. Some challenges with maintaining electrical service and city water but we are well stocked up and there was plenty of bottled water around even during the flood.

Tsunamis - If any even threaten my house we will have much bigger problems here in the USA.

Volcano / Seismic Event - Really Low Probability here - the only thing sort of close is the New Madrid fault but even that is a long way off. Worst case is the Yellowstone Caldera goes boom. We are outside of the historical ash zone for that but the civil disruption from that event would be huge.

Nuclear, radiological and chemical accidents - Some thing to consider, lots of rail transport through the area plus an interstate along with a semi-nearby Nuclear power plant. Basic plan - grab the wife, kids and pets and run like mad. If we get any advanced warning we will be among the first out.

Snow, ice and winter storms - Around here that just defines winter. Might consider bailing out if these lead to long term (more than a couple of days) loss of power/utilities.

Thunderstorms / lightning /tornadoes - Part of what we call weather around here. Stay indoors as much as possible during severe weather. Can't run from Tornadoes, just hunker down in the basement. If you are unlucky you will be leaving the house, or what ever is left of it (hopefully on foot after the tornado passes by ).

Hurricanes - Similar to Tsunami - if it gets this far inland we have bigger things to worry about.

Heatwave - Serious concern in the midwest, if we start losing power or the A/C quits we may need to consider bailing out. Needs additional thought on where to run to since effects are probably wide spread and loss of electric will impact ability to get gas for cars/generators.

Landslides and mudflows - Very unlikely but if predicted in the vicinity of my house I would probably be an early evacuator.

Terrorism - Unfortunately this one is very complex. If small / isolated event (no nuc's, no bugs, no chemicals) and not directly threatening the neighborhood I would probably stay. Otherwise run like mad since even friendly fire smarts.

- Eric

As posted, some 12 - 24 hours depending on tides, winds, etcetera to get to the Golden Gate Bridge.

The thread tries to ask you to decide what threats in your situation you choose to believe are likely to be sufficient to make you flee and specifically how you would make that decision.

No encyclopedic theoretical threat reviews that you chose to discount as highly unlikely need be presented, though that is up to you.

I am hoping to pick your brains to add considerations from your expertise or experience to help me think through my own decions on whether and when to flee. The more real world, the better.

Thanks.

That's how I feel too. I have so much invested here, and so many resources, that nowhere else is likely to be better unless something drastic has happened.

Where I live it's most likely to be a tornado making the house unliveable. Or terrorist action or road spill or civil unrest or a plane crashing into my house. None of which are at all likely.

If staying home would be fatal, then go.

If staying home might be fatal, go.

If staying home would be extremely unpleasant because of lack of services -- power, water, sewer -- or perilous because of looting or civil unrest.... then go.

The threshold of whether to go should be lower when there are children involved.

Those who've been in the projected path of hurricanes probably have the most applicable experience. They've had to weigh the dangers of staying home versus the drudgery and dangers of evacuating.

For them this discussion is more than theoretical.

"Worst case is the Yellowstone Caldera goes boom. We are outside of the historical ash zone for that but the civil disruption from that event would be huge."

You're not out of the ash zone. It just depends on how large the eruption is. When Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in 1991, the main blast ejected more than one cubic mile of ash and debris. Fine ash fell as far away as the Indian Ocean. More ash was produced in the following eruptions. The ash clouds were tracked several times around the Earth by satellite.

About 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide were injected into the stratosphere, and this affected the global weather through 1993.

Personally, I think our Mt. Rainier will blow long before Yellowstone does, but what do I know? Practically nothing.

The Bruneau-Jarbidge event in southern Idaho (10-12 million yrs ago) dropped ash to the depth of a foot 1,000 miles away in northeastern Nebraska.

On the rare chance that Yellowstone did erupt, the ash would probably be a monumental problem for you. One foot of ash comes down like powder, lighter than snowflakes. And then it rains and retains all that moisture, and becomes like concrete. If not removed from your roof when it's still dry, it WILL collapse your house. Wearing respiratory protection, use snow shovels or large brooms, slowly push it if you can, as you can't shovel it very well because it becomes airborne.

Keep your fingers crossed that it never happens.

Sue

The historical ash zone I was referring to is the old ash beds (multiple feet of ash burying the area) from previous eruptions. We would get ash, heck everyone would, but on a relative scale the civil and infrastructure disruption from essentially burying about 40% or more of the continental US would be a much bigger concern.

From a stay/flee evaluation, the event I would need to be concerned with is very low probability and very very high impact. Depending on the amount of ash fall around the Mississippi river area in the upper midwest there might be no choice but stay. The power grid would be severely disrupted which makes getting gas to drive with challenge. Walking out would not be a real option for my family and the widespread impacts of the ash fall and the major infrastructure disruption in the country would make the question of where to flee to interesting also.

You do bring up good points on dealing with the ash, just hope I never need the information.

- Eric

Yes, I realize you were not speaking of recent history.

Once the ash hits, you aren't likely to be going anywhere, esp in a car or anything else that has any air-intake. Any movement swirls the ash into the air. In a car, you stop about every mile or two to clean out the air filter.

Stay home, seal the doors and windows as best you can, take pets inside.

Sue