On the anniversary of Katrina (see elsewhere in this forum for an excellent article and retrospective on it) I find myself charged with the task of developing plans for our tiny community.

The new head of FEMA - Craig Fugate - is the subject of an article in The Atlantic (link) which I read last week.

I pull this (long) quote from the full article:

“We need to change behavior in this country,” he told about 400 emergency-management instructors at a conference in June, lambasting the “government-centric” approach to disasters. He learned a perverse lesson in Florida: the more the federal government does in routine emergencies, the greater the odds of catastrophic failure in a big disaster. “It’s like a Chinese finger trap,” he told me last spring, as a hailstorm fittingly raged outside his office. If the feds do more, the public, along with state and local officials, do less. They come to expect ice and water in 24 hours and full reimbursement for sodden carpets. But as part of a federal system, FEMA is designed to defer to state and local officials. If another Katrina hits, and the locals are overwhelmed, a full-strength federal response will inevitably take time. People who need help the most—the elderly, the disabled, and the poor—may not get it fast enough.

To avoid “system collapse,” as he puts it, Fugate insists that the government must draft the public. “We tend to look at the public as a liability. [But] who is going to be the fastest responder when your house falls on your head? Your neighbor.” A few years ago, Fugate dropped the word victim from his vocabulary. “You’re not going to hear me refer to people as victims unless we’ve lost ’em. I call them survivors.” He criticizes the media for “celebrating” people who choose not to evacuate and then have to be rescued on live TV—while ignoring all the people who were prepared. “This is a tragedy, this whole Shakespearean circle we’re in. You never hear the media say, ‘Hey, you’re putting this rescue worker in danger.’”

At his first all-staff meeting with FEMA employees, Fugate asked for a show of hands: “How many people here have your family disaster plan ready to go? [If you don’t], you just failed your first test … If you’re going to be an emergency manager, the first place you start is at home.” Already, Fugate is factoring citizens into the agency’s models for catastrophic planning, thinking of them as rescuers and responders, not just victims. And he has changed FEMA’s mission statement from the old, paternalistic (and fantastical) vow to “protect the Nation from all hazards” to a more modest, collaborative pledge to “support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together.”

I am particularly fond of this guy's approach - as a local emergency manager, it's good to hear someone from the Federal level talking like this.

But I do have to say that the one thing I hear clearly in all of this is that the 72 hour kit concept is probably invalid and that the 96 hour "homestead" is likely the better plan.

As I've posted here, I went to a 96 hour plan a few years ago, and in a recent storm we got to test out some of our plans and assumptions (it was all good).

But I'd like to see more talk here about specific needs and action plans FOR YOUR COMMUNITY. Do you know your neighbors? Do you know your community? Do you know what you're good at in an emergency? Do you really, actually truly have the capacity to live in your home with no electric, water or heat for 5 days?

This guy's quote is right on. Interesting he didn't say how many of his managers raised their hands when asked about their own emergency kit.

I live in an eight unit apartment building in Brooklyn. About a year ago I obtained the NYC phamphlet on emergency planning (72-hour kit, BOB, evacuation plans etc.) and gave one to each of my neighbors. During the course of conversation I ask them if they have done anything advised by the literature. I think only six of the eight apartments even have a flashlight. Pretty discouraging.

I think the quote above illustrates how the solution can be part of the problem. NYC has absolutely fantastic emergency services. I have lived in several large cities, and nowhere have I seen the fire, ems, or police respond better or behave more professionally than in NYC. But that has bred a sort of paternalistic view among my neighbors. They've come to expect fast response times and all the high tech goodies. Isn't going to be that way in the event of a hurricane or other large-scale disaster.

The city has made an effort to improve preparedness. I see billboards, and it is actively promoting National Preparedness Month (http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/pr/08_09_04_npm_kickoff.shtml) Don't know how effective it has been.

I am fairly proud of my local Red Cross. At every recent training session I have attended, they have stressed personal preparedness as a precondition to helping others. The government liasion said it best, he said if your family isn't safe and taken care of, you can't function here. If you don't have a go-kit in your car, you can't function very effectively for us. And I also like how we have pre-positioned relief supplies around the County, rather than centralizing them in one warehouse somewhere. From floods or earthquakes, the Seattle area will be broken into virtual islands of habitation, all of which will require some help to come to them. If our volunteers are naturally dispersed, they can get to the supplies and set up shelters, start feeding programs etc.

The 3 Days 3 Ways message is still prevalent in King County, which may help but will be insufficient for a bad disaster. King Co EM realizes this, but I get the idea that higher ups can't get past the catchy 3D3W bit and get down to asking folks to be prepared for 5-7 days.

This winter may be an eye opener for many, as a leaky dam that won't hold rainwater may flood the Kent Valley, which hasn't seen a flood in 50 years. Lewis County style floods right here in the big city!

There is always a backlash when a government's advertising schtick is to take care of all the people, all of the time, under all circumstances. It has created an entire country of helpless babies, a country of mental and emotional feebles. We don't have to think about taking care of ourselves, much less actually preparing for or doing it. If the City can't do it, the County will, or the State, or the Feds.

Around here (probably elsewhere, too), the people seem to be sharply divided into two groups: 1) the few to whom it is second nature to keep supplies on hand, and 2) the others, who say they don't have the money to stock up on supplies or think about what to do in an emergency, or to look at their personal situation that maybe should be changed. However, they have two honkin' big 4WD pickups that take a ladder to get into, redecorate their home every few years, own almost every electronic gadget known, set 32" TV sets in front of their house with a sign that says "Free, works fine", and seem to have an endless amount of money to spend on ANYTHING other than emergency preparation.

My neighborhood is like this. Of the people I know around here (quite a few due to the neighborhood drug problem a few years ago), I would guess that maybe four homes on this street are prepared for at least a week of 'camping' in their homes with what they have on hand. The rest will be waiting for helicopters to deliver basic supplies or begging from the neighbors.

Do any of you remember the twit-on-the-street who was interviewed in NYC after a major power outage who, when asked by the reporter if this event had changed her mind on being prepared for such things, said something like, "No, because preparing for it is like admitting it will happen again".

And that's how America is these days. And it really has to change.

Good article, Marty!

Why have you assumed that it is the Government that has turned everyone into a gibbering unprepared bunch of imbeciles? Surely the success of the free market economy is just as much to blame. An example would be that stocks of food and household supplies in the supermarket, all of which are run by private industry has shown the way to everyone that there will never be shortages. Why learn to cook your own food when a convenience restaurant is just a short drive away in the SUV powered by that products of those privately owned petroleum corporations. Why learn to grow your own food when the international free market is so successful at providing 3rd world produce at incredibly low prices. It might be fair to hold the governmental agencies to account when they don't deliver in an emergency but blaming them for the lack of preparedness of individuals who behave like rabbits in the headlights of a consumerist society is slightly unfair.

There might even come the day when if the lights go out, the private industry suppliers may just decide its not worth their profit sheet to put the lights back on.

We're on the edge of political here...but...here I go (and I should know better)

I agree with you. Strongly.

But we can't talk about WHY here...just what.

So WHAT can we do to get 96 hour readiness to 70% of the population? That's a goal.

The way I figure it, I shouldn't be expecting some big governmental agency to be here right after an emergency fully prepared to grant my every wish/need/desire.

I don't even expect local government to be able to handle a major catastrophe.

I'm prepared to bug in for a couple/three weeks easy. Probably well over a month if we're smart. Bugging out, depending on the amount of warning we get, 5 days minimum... more than enough time to un*ss the AO and get to the in-laws. More than a few hours and we are again up the month time frame easy.

IMHO, the vast majority of people are unprepared for anything out of the ordinary. The power goes off for a few hours and people freak. A blizzard is forecast (ok, up to a foot of snow, but come on, it's the South) and we see people stocking up - on chips, beer and smokes. Totally without clue one.

I have the means, the training and the mindset to get through a lot of things. If Uncle comes along with some help, fine. If not, oh well, that's ok too. And all those "grasshoppers" will have to find out the hard way I guess.

Thankfully I and many of my neighbors have been able to stock up on all sorts of supplies purchased from private industry sources such as Walmart, Sam's Club, Kroger's etc...

I think we'd have a much harder time trying to grow or build these supplies by ourselves or buy it all from the limited stuff available from farmer's market (and I'm unaware of any hand-made solar cells, gardening tools, or coolers available nearby).

I guess the only other alternative would be for the government to supply me and my neighbors with all that stuff...but isn't this thread against that?

Sometimes I get confused...

-Blast

That's the big fear in my industry right now. Excessive taxation of non-nationalized oil companies will make it impossible for them to sell enough fuel to meet the demand and still pay thier bills. If that happens they'll just close up shop and sell their equipment and leases to the Saudi, Chinese, Mexican, and assorted South American government-owned oil companies. Having dealt with these assorted government oil companies and seen first-hand their corruption, waste, and bean-counting over engineering, I'd be VERY concerned if this happened. But hopefully someone nearby will be hand-making superpowerful solar cells by then.

Martin, with your deep knowledge and contacts can you give us a little bit of insight into what other companies might also pack up and close shop?

-Blast

All our local grocery stores have prepackaged "food bank" bags of goods. You pay an extra $5 and the store donates one of the bags to a local food bank. I've peaked in the bags and estimate the cost of those groceries to be somewhere $6-$8 dollars. It's mainly rice, beans, a few cans of fruit, soup, tuna...stuff like that.

I wonder if stores could be convinced to offer pre-packaged emergency food bags? Fill them with the same stuff and charge the actual cost. Place them on an endcap with big signs and I bet people would start buying them. Stick a stand of www.ready.gov or Zombie Squad brochures by it to help people learn. Next endcap over put batteries, radios and flashlights.

I think making people realize preparedness can be achieved both EASILY and CHEAPLY might help more people come around, especially if they see other non-crazy people buying the stuff.

-Blast