Where I live, the official standing right now is that a major outbreak is expected during the following months, with as much as 30% of the population infected.
In the UK we were getting 100,000 new cases a week, but that's declined over the last couple of weeks down to 25,000 new cases. I think we are ahead of the curve compared to most countries, and we had a big jump in July which probably corresponds to your predicted "major outbreak", where it went from 100s to 100s of thousands.
Only 44 deaths from that total....