Folks, I am SO SORRY - I accidentally deleted the ENTIRE flu thread...Totally messed up, I was NOT intending to delete the thread at all...I can't get it back either. My bad. Please, someone re-start it.

US declares public health emergency for swine flu.

So why are the cases in Mexico so much more serious than the cases which have been found in the U.S.?

I have a feeling N95 masks are about to be sold out at every Walmart in the country.

If you're shopping for some, they make N95 (P95, etc.) masks that have a one-way flap valve, so it's a lot easier to exhale. It's really worth having that if you're doing anything physical or getting hot. The only real downside is that you can't put them on an infected patient to protect others.

If you're going to the trouble of wearing a mask, you really should be wearing eye protection as well.

Looks like the world is already a month in on what could be the real deal.

http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/biosu...-of-events.html

Don't know, and I don't know whether they are actually more serious than the ~20 reported cases in the US. I haven't seen an analysis of the cases in Mexico, but a few factors to remember:

- reporting. In Mexico you may see fatalities reported more accurately than cases of swine flu. The top level impression from US media is 100% of those infected in Mexico have died from this flu strain, when in all probability there are a number of un- or under-reported cases of swine flu, of which the reported fatalities are a smaller fraction.
- treatment. Basical health can be sketchy, not everyone can get adequate basic treatment for the flu.
- its a small sample set, but this flu seems more serious in younger folks. Very young quite often can't complain or show serious symptoms until the flu is relatively advanced.

Take heart from the reports on US infections, this seems treatable at home with basic flu treatments.

Can whomever posted the 3 links that included this one:

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/frontPage.do

Please post them again!

ETS'ers are probably familiar with this site but just in case here it is again.

Promedmail

Fifty lashes with a wet noodle for you martinfocazio. Stuff happens. So much for any illusions we had that you were perfect. LOL. No problem.

I'm getting good information, from someone who knows the science and updated several times a day, at:
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/

Reading down several days should give you a feel for how the story has unfolded. Most posts include links to in-depth sources.

The latest, as of Sunday evening:
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/04/swine_flu_what_you_dont_know_h.php

I have to admit that I'm rather surprised with how quickly this situation has changed just over the weekend. It's one thing for TV news to repeat this story to death, which we all expect these days, but going from quick reports in the news of isolated cases one day to constant news coverage, and finally to "US declares health emergency" the next day is unusual.

I hope people realize that the declaration of a health emergency (at least this one in the US) is primarily a procedural thing at this stage, like how the governor of a state declares an area to be a disaster zone so that various emergency funding and resources can begin to be mobilized, and not because the situation is critically dangerous, like if Homeland Security's terror alert were raised to red.

Looking at the empty streets of Mexico City now, I can only think how unlucky a blow to business it will be here in the US if people here stay home, even if this swine flu episode fizzles relatively quickly. Malls, retail districts, bars and restaurants, sporting teams, public transit systems--they could all take a really big financial hit that could send many businesses under, considering the precarious situation that many businesses are already in. We're just ramping up and heading towards the busy summer season, so depending on how this situation develops, it could be a bad summer for a lot of industries or countries.

I'm not particularly worried about the disease itself at this moment since we're still so early in the process and there are still so many questions, but I do worry about the economic impact since so many of us are already dancing on thin ice.

Still watching, still cautious, getting slightly more concerned.
This still has a fairly low fatality rate, less than 1% I think.

The effects on the world economy will likely be pretty big though.
With the SARS outbreak the economic cost was way out of line with the severity of the outbreak and that makes me suspect the same thing will happen this time.
Airlines, tourism, hospitality, and other travel were the industries that took the biggest hits with SARS.

I see from reports that it has made it to most of the North American continent and as far as New Zealand. I have not heard any reports if it has got into Russia, Asia or India.

BIG EDIT: I was quite wrong on my guess at the fatality rate. After looking at it again it seems to be about 8% in Mexico and 5% over all.