If you think a post is political, it usually is.

Thin ice. Well said.

Though I'm a pretty cautious person I don't think I'm an alarmist. But I've got a few hints lately that the situation might be a lot more dangerous than it seems. I know a few people high up in the financial world who've lost all faith in the banking system (the very system they developed themselves). It's not encouraging to see people withdrawing huge sums and keeping a big stack of cash just in case.

If Neiman Marcus starts selling bug-out bags and the Wall Streeters drive Cabela's stock up, then it would be a full-fledged phenomenon.

The Wall Street Journal reader comment section had a mixed reaction to Noonan's column.

Political or not (I lean toward not. This is economic), this is currently the greatest threat lurking out there. This is one reason we prepare. I am not doing anything different, just keeping up my supplies and keeping my eyes open.

My brother-in-law is a "retired" financial advisor who has done very well for himself (incredibly well connected on national and international levels). Last August he took all of his money out of stocks and invested in very boring and safe places. Most of his financial buddies thought he was nuts and told him so. He just smiled. He is currently still smiling and biding his time - not worried in the least. He has confidence in the mid-term future. I know nothing about the markets but there are some smart people who are just waiting this out ... knowing that the global economy will recover and, if they time it right, they'll make a lotta money. In a weird way that kinda gives me hope.

That said, I've stocked up some and I'm more ready for anything now than I would normally be - no sense in being stupid about it.

Folks shouldn't be spending what little cash they have left on anti-depressants and but instead on items such as shown below;


Transport


Transport


Cooking and Heating


Electrical Power


Gardening Tools


Clothing manufacture


Dig for Victory!

But somehow I think the transition for the urban haute bourgeois to a bohemian lifestyle will be more tricky physcologically for these folks than just getting the cheque book out.

Under some conditions, I could see seeds being worth more than bullets or money. Not necessarily in the case of a total meltdown of society, with stormtroopers or armed hordes sweeping through the countryside like locusts, but somewhere around the point where there are more people at home than at work, where there aren't too many cars on the freeway, when the malls are resembling ghost towns, the mail is only coming once a week or so, and when people are going to bed at dark because the power has been turned off, etc.

Not an apocalypse, not TEOTWAWKI, just hard times, with many things not being as available as they once were.

Giving (or trading) something as small and simple as a dozen squash seeds sealed in an old envelope could help to avert a crisis, give hope, and maybe even make a friend who would watch your back or give you help or useful information.

Three seed sources that I like dealing with:
* Bountiful Gardens -- open-pollinated, heirloom, untreated, some unusual stuff like old-time grains and hull-less oats, good prices.
* Territorial Seed -- wide variety of open-pollinated and hybrid (both clearly marked), some organic, good planting/harvesting info, full descriptions, somewhat higher prices than Bountiful, but they do grow 25% of their own seed, which is practically unheard-of.
* Pinetree Garden -- good selection, many heirloom varieties, all hybrids are clearly marked, good herb selection, good list of quality books and home gardening paraphernalia, low seed prices.

Open-pollinated, non-hybrid seeds. The REAL mark of civilization.

Sue

> I wonder how many Wall Streeters are buying farms and seeking self-sufficiency?

None. Zero. Zip. They're all still at work making money and getting bonuses. They know all the 'end of the world' paranoia is just paranoia, and they're exploiting it to short-sell their way to their next billion bucks. They're exploiting Peggy Noonan, just like they exploited Jim Cramer.

We'll have a financially rough time just like we do every 20 or 30 years, then things will pick right back up with some differences, just like they do every 20 or 30 years.

IMO, Manipulation. The reality curve will be very steep when it hits. $.02, $.20, $2.00, never mind

I think Russ is right. We're sliding down the slippery slope, but we haven't reached bottom yet.

And if you look closely, you may notice that stuff HAS gone up, but not ALL stuff has gone up. My makeup, dog and cat food, chicken feed and scratch, motor oil, manila envelopes, Spam, and tons of other stuff has gone up. Eighteen pounds of cat food has gone up from $19 to $26. Stove pellets are up. Firewood is up. Windshield de-icer has almost doubled. The last time that I looked at a magazine, it had gone up from $5.95 to $7.95.

But we're not finished yet. Still sliding...

Sue

I know a lot of people who work in finance. Most of them have no idea ohow the system works. Many of them have no idea how their companies work. They know the products and services on which they work, and they know the factors that go into how they get paid. So, if the person is someone who works at analyzing credit for companies seeking to enter the capital markets to finance debt, then they'll know how to analyze the company from a credit perspective, figure out what the company needs to do to get debt financing, and figure out how their company and they will get paid to arrange for such financing. If they work at providing financing for pension obligations, then their knowledge will encompass the information needed to do that and will less focused on analyzing the companies credit. If they work in lease finacning, then they will know that information. And if they work in securitizing mortgage-backed securities, then that wll be their area.

The key I've seen to understanding how these companies functioned is that the people who worked in given area only get paid if they work on deals that are executed. This works the same for a mortgage broker, a real estate agent or broker, or almost anyone selling anything; no sales means no revenue. The system created an incentive for anyone in any of these positions to sell products and services, and there was little incentive to care about the future of the investment.

The large financial houses did not function as traditional banks, and anyone who looked at their businesses should have known this was the case. Community and regional banks are generally doing better, relative to the big houses, because they took a different approach to business. They did not use as much leverage, they knew their customers better, and they did not expect to returns on capital that were as high as the big financial houses.

Their are many reasons for why and how the economy has gotten to this stage, but how the big financial houses worked is part of it.

Manipulation is right. That's the whole idea behind how our Federal Reserve operates.

Our Federal Reserve has attempted to manage growth historically by seeking to manage the amount of money flowing in the economy and by seeking to manage the cost of money. The Fed lends money to banks at low interest rates. Of course, this allows banks to add capital at inexpensive rates for periods of time.

I also have issues with how our government even calculates the rate at which the economy grows or shrinks, but I will be getting political if I write more, if I have not already.

Oliver Wendell Douglas did.
He was one of Mr. Haney's favourite customers.
But he still needed the help of Eb Dawson, Hank Kimbal and Sam Drucker to make a go of it.
---------
Green acres is the place for me.
Farm livin' is the life for me.....

Ah well, there goes another $1000,000,000,000 of taxpayers money, this time on spending buying up some of the banksters toxic assets (such as financing the type of deals that allowed the Eskimos to move their Igloos to the Sahara then spreading the risk of these mortgage backed AAA rated securities onto the world economy with the Wall street and City of London Masters of the Universe walking away with their multimillion dollar bonuses and pension schemes) on top of another $1200,000,000,000 in quantive easing on top of another $850,000,000,000 stimulus package which was piled on top of the original $700,000,000,000 bank bailout or was it $750,000,000,000 (the memory is getting a little fuzzy). Hmm what's worse than trickle down economics, thats right trickle up economics. They seem to be spending money like there's no tommorow, no wait could there be no.......

And I have in the last six months ensured that I have enough new footware and clothing to last for the next 5+ years (spent around £2000 on heavily discounted items 50-70% off the RRP) and household cleaning and chemical materials and personal toiletries for 18-24 months.

Umm, hello... we all read thread on deciding wether to keep or close this section down right? And Martin's comments on where we need to focus...

I have enough footware and clothing to last five lifetimes.

Can't say it was part of a survival plan.

I just like to shop.

Oliver Wendell Douglas and I have a few things in common. But hopefully, I'll have fewer encounters with the likes of Hank Kimball.

Well, the more I think about it these days, the more doom & gloom I read in the newspaper, not to mention the torture porn (AKA news) on TV... the less I care. Once you get past a certain point, enough is enough. I've decided I'm not going to lose any more sleep over whatever may be coming next. The same people predicting TEOTWAWKI these days were busy extolling the strengths of the free market just a year ago.

Life is full of variables and we're in for a ride, whichever way it goes. Just reminds me of a good old hardcore song by Iron Maiden... Dang, those Brits sure know what heavy metal is all about.


IRON MAIDEN: DIE WITH YOUR BOOTS ON

Yeah! Another Prophet of Disaster
Who says the ship is lost,
Another Prophet of Disaster
Leaving you to count the cost.
Taunting us with Visions,
Afflicting us with fear,
Predicting War for millions,
In the hope that one appears.

(Chorus)
No point asking when it is,
No point asking who's to go,
No point asking what's the game,
No point asking who's to blame.
'cos if you're gonna die, if you're gonna die,
'cos if you're gonna die, if you're gonna die,

If you're gonna die, die with your boots on.
If you're gonna try, just stick around,
Gonna cry, just move along,
If you're gonna die, you're gonna die.

In 13 the Beast is rising,
The Frenchman did surmise,
Through earthquakes and starvation,
The warlord will arise.
Terror, Death, Destruction,
Pour from the Eastern Sands,
But the truth of all predictions,
Is always in your hands.

(Repeat chorus)

They died with their boots on, yes they diiieeeed...
The day they die with their boots on, we dieeeeeeeeeee
WE DIE!
WE DIE!
WE DIE!
WE DIE!
WE DIE!

Please focus on how to prepare for Natural Disasters and Larger Scale Emergencies. That's what this forum was set up to discuss. We have all been advised the forum could be shut down if we wander into areas of discussion other than those topics.

I am not sure if my point was clear enough with the Green Acres reference.
The thing is that if anybody is planning on retreating to a few acres and toughing it out while the economy collapses by becoming subsistence farmers, then they had better have a pretty decent set of skills already.

However, if you want to practice gardening, and have no land, now might be a good time to approach some owners of vacant lots.
They might like work out a deal to start an allotment garden on their property. They would likely be willing to rent cheap just so they don't have to pay the taxes all by themselves. (or pay for weed control)
Your biggest gain will likely be from reduced entertainment costs rather than reduced grocery bills or flower sales though.

I think that the idea of just running away to the country is a nice fantasy, but that it really is just a fantasy.
I think the way to weather economic bad times is to try to stay debt free and try to keep some income happening.

When was the last time you did a household budget?

I agree with the running away to the country being a fantasy. Now is a good timne to be sharpening agricultural skills.

However, if we end up with inflation staying out of debt is usually not the way to make out. Going into debt during inflationary periods may be a better strategy. When you borrow money, then the money loses value, you can end up paying back less in effect. I've heard a lot of predictions forecasting inflation recently.

Here's a question: if Peggy Noonan's focus on preparedness (dare we call it that?) is a passing fancy, how do we convince/teach people that being prepared is desirable and should be cultivated all your life?

All you can do is make the information available and encourage them where you can. Left to their own reasoning, most folks will eventually figure it out, and when they do, that's when they will turn to places like this for guidance.

How's that cliche go? You can lead a horse to water...

The columnist seems to have (or at least present) a rather narrow view of things. For instance, when talking about fixing the economy, she states, "All else—windmills, green technology, remaking health care—is secondary."

Now, to me, these seem like projects that might be able to boost the economy. New New Deal stuff.

On the subject of gun sales going up: That's not a sign of a general fear, that's a sign of fear of legislation. Considering Wall Street itself runs off of this sort of reactionary and speculative buying (and selling) binge, it's hardly surprising. Just human nature. If Steve Jobs is ill, Apple stock falls. If Democrats control the House, Senate, and Executive branch, and are likely to appoint the next Supreme Court Justice, gun stock goes up. =P