Note: I do not work for or in anyway represent The Long Now Foundation. I am not advocating for them.

This group is interested in really long term thinking (10,000 years). This somewhat relates to the discussion here as some of their speakers talk about large scale emergencies (natural and man-made) as well as the historical rise and fall of civilizations.

Their most recent speaker, Dmitry Orlov, just gave a really great lecture on what he believes is the coming collapse of the American economy and society. He relates this to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990’s and talks about indicators he sees happening now. More importantly he talks about preparing for it.

The lecture is a free download, though they ask for donations;
http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/ (he’s the latest one, just scroll down)
There is also a link to a summery as well as his slide show;
http://blog.longnow.org/2009/02/16/dmitry-orlov-social-collapse-best-practices/
A transcript is here:
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/social-collapse-best-practices.html

Most of the voices here on ETS don’t believe there is very much risk of something monumental happening anytime soon. Call me paranoid, but it sure feels like it to me. If you believe a collapse is here or coming, or if you just want to read about another would-be Chicken Little this lecture is worth a look.

Besides, just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean that they aren’t out to get you.

The lecture was previously posted on another thread.

Sorry.

The name is reminiscent of the "Long View Foundation" ala
R. Heinlein.

Michael,
Don't mind benjammin. He's just annoyed that Colorado thinks he's some other guy with a criminal history so he can't buy a toy that goes "bang!"

Thanks for posting that info.

OH, is that why Ben didn't get his new noisemaker?
That is funny.

Anyway, the other thread was Orlov giving an interview to the news media.
This presentation is a bit more in depth.
I had almost forgotten about The Long Now. They get some very interesting speakers and not all of them are doom and gloom.

Edit.
I don't think the collapse is coming. I think it is already here.
A lot of people think disasters have to be instant catastrophes, but I think usually they are more like train wrecks is slow motion, where you watch the cars pile into each other as they leave the tracks.

Making a statement that most of ETS readerhip isn't interested in such scenarios is akin to saying "Have you heard of Jesus?" or, I have some colloidal silver that will solve a problem you aren't even aware of.It's hubris of foreknowledge and personal possession of subjective gifts. As some know, my avocation is archaeology. And If I've learned anything, our VERY short occupation on this planet, with much of that time spent in a hunter gatherer mode dodging glaciers, cave bears and falling cave overheads is still on probation.
The very short era of our organising ourselves into a species that can now effect the planet has already seen major disasters, both recorded and only remembered in myth. And it has seen some very suprising twists and turns so well demonstrated in the old UK series connections.
The very world of our longest cultural stasis and stability in Southern France and Spain is gone; no more tundra, cave bears, wooly mastodons, or sabre toothed cats. Only their painted memory and fossils as contemorary as a 70s cell phone.To presume anyone could guess 10,000 years ahead beyond 'it will be different' is worth a donation of zip.

Ah, Michael, don't mind any of them. We've had some strange people here in the past, but some of the regulars are just having some hissy fits lately. I think OBG's post has affected all of us more than we know.

The guys here are mostly great. Some of them have some funny ideas , and some of them can miss a point now and then ;), but they're basically all good guys.

The one you have to watch out for is the witch from WA.

Sue

I used to love watching Connections! Been a long time since I've seen it aired. James Burke was probably the first person to really turn me onto the concept that human development is a lot more interdependent than we are normally taught. Well, I'm naturally a Big Picture kind of thinker, so his romps through history following various strands of thought and inventions through various twists and turns of events totally fascinated me.

Orlov's suggestions are in tune with what the Peak Oil theorists expect will happen as energy becomes scarcer and much more expensive.