Unfortunately, a pandemic is like trying to call the start of a recession--you really don't know for sure except in hindsight. I appreciate your comments.

I was going to say that your comments also apply to bioterrorism (another legitimate concern in NYC), but in some ways, it's even harder to identify a pandemic early. With bioterror, you could be dealing with specific, identifiable diseases or agents, like "weaponized" anthrax, which you normally wouldn't find in nature. A real bioterror weapon would likely quickly kill many people. There may also be public announcements from terror groups related to the attack.

In contrast, a pandemic is more like rising floodwaters. Sure, it may be obvious that water is lapping at the bottom of your front steps now while you sit there watching it, but at what point do you say, "Yikes, it's really a flood!" The death rate from Spanish Flu was "only" estimated around 2-5% so the resulting deaths may only seem sporadic in the early stages and even when those reports come out, it may not be obvious to people that this outbreak is truly a problem for a while longer.

Public health officials have a tough job on their hands. Unlike hurricane forecasters, who have this realtime picture of a hurricane on a computer screen, the biggest problem is just knowing about various illnesses happening in their jurisdiction. Hard to get a bird's eye view when you're dealing with hospitals, clinics, and private doctors' offices which don't necessarily share any data with you, especially on a timely basis. Then there's the delicate balancing act of not crying wolf and unnecessarily causing panic. Of course, they get skewered if something bad happens and they don't warn the public early.

Even on a personal level, how does one really know when they or their family is stricken? Say the pandemic is some deadly strain of influenza. Flu season usually involves multiple flu strains. You feel that scratchy feeling in the back of the throat, that slight headache, that midnight bout of the runs--is this it? Or is it just a normal bug that you picked up at work? Or is it another innocuous illness? Do you blow your limited supply of antiviral meds that you somehow obtained in preparation? Do you immediately take some vacation time and head to the vacation cabin? Hard to know for sure at that stage.

Although we like to think that we are modern and smart and have all this technology, a pandemic is just one of those situations that is very difficult to identify until you're in the thick of it. If we're "lucky", it causes a big problem in another part of the world first, giving us time to evaluate and prepare.

One last thing--although I can certainly understand the bug-in/bunker mentality, in general, I think we are usually far better off trying to help one another in various calamities than just disappearing in a dark hole until the smoke clears. But that's more of a moral/philosophical point than a survival strategy.